Drought Activities at the NOAANCDC Climate Monitoring Branch

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Drought Activities at the NOAA/NCDC Climate
Monitoring Branch

• Richard R. Heim Jr.
• Jay H. Lawrimore
• NOAA/NESDIS/National Climatic Data Center
• Asheville, North Carolina
• USDM Workshop
• Portland, OR, October 2007

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Overview

• Monthly State of the Climate drought reports
• Drought Monitor Activities (USDM, NADM)
• FMDI Floating Month Drought Index
• Living Blended Paleo Drought Monitoring
• NIDIS
• International Drought Monitoring Drought Early
  Warning System

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State of the Climate Drought Reports

• Monthly reports
• Narrative graphics
• NOAA press release, plus Global Analysis,
  Global Hazards Significant Events, National
  Overview, Drought, Wildfire, Hurricane sections
• Drought has U.S. focus
• Online by mid-month (12th to 15th)

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CMB Drought Web Pages

• Drought Monitoring Tools
• A static page that provides links to drought web
  resources from other organizations
• Drought Termination in the U.S.
• Based on Palmer Drought Index
• Precip required to end/ameliorate drought
  probabilities of it occurring
• Weekly maps
• Plot of indicators derived from CPC weekly data
• Monthly Palmer Drought Index computed weekly

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Drought Monitor (USDM/NADM) Activities

• Author U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) and North
  America Drought Monitor (NADM)
• Host the NADM web site
• http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/monitoring/dro
  ught/nadm/index.html
• Compute the continental indicators for the NADM
• U.S., Canadian, Mexican SPI, PCTPCP, Palmer
  Drought Indices

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Transitioning from Climate Divisions to Station
Data for the U.S.

• One of the action items from Oct 2006 NADM
  Workshop
• For NADM drought indicator maps, have used
  stations for CN MX AK, climate divisions for
  contiguous U.S.
• We are now also computing/plotting the North
  America indicator maps using stations for
  contiguous U.S.

Stations in U.S.
Climate divisions in U.S.
Stations in U.S.
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Precipitation Climatologies for N. America

• Percent of annual precipitation maps
• Monthly, 3-Month Seasons, 6-Month Seasons

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FMDI Floating Month Drought Index

• FMDI a new drought index inspired by the
  Australian decile-based drought definition and
  the USDM
• Based on precipitation percentiles
• Computes
• Precipitation percentile for current month
• Length (number of consecutive months) and begin
  year/month of current dry spell
• Precipitation percentile for current N-month dry
  spell
• Dx dry spell category (based on USDM categories)
  for current month
• Length (number of consecutive months) and begin
  year/month of current wet spell
• Precipitation percentile for current N-month wet
  spell
• Wx wet spell category (based on analog to USDM
  categories)

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FMDI Floating Month Drought Index

• Dry Spell begins when 3 consecutive months each
  have an anomaly anomaly of total precipitation for the 3
  consecutive dry months falls beyond the cutoff
  (

• Dry Spell ends when
• the total precipitation for the months from
  beginning anchor year-month to current month no
  longer falls beyond the cutoff (
  percentile), OR
• the precipitation for the past 3 months is
  extremely wet (3-month total precipitation
  70th percentile)

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FMDI Floating Month Drought Index

• Wet Spell begins when 3 consecutive months each
  have an anomaly 70th percentile and the
  anomaly of total precipitation for the 3
  consecutive dry months fall beyond the cutoff (
  70 percentile)

• Wet Spell ends when
• the total precipitation for the months from
  beginning anchor year-month to current month no
  longer falls beyond the cutoff ( 70th
  percentile), OR
• the precipitation for the past 3 months is
  extremely dry (3-month total precipitation
  30th percentile)

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FMDI Floating Month Drought Index

• Has a Near-Real Time component and a Backstepping
  component
• Requires serially complete data

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FMDI can show Wet Spell Conditions as well as
Dry Spell.
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FMDI Floating Month Drought Index
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FMDI Correlations With Other Drought Indices
1/2003-5/2007
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Living Blended Paleo Drought Monitoring

• The instrumental data record extends back only
  about 100 years
• Paleoclimatic data can extend our drought
  historical perspective back several hundred to
  thousands of years

Based on station meteorological data
Based on tree ring chronologies
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Building the Living Blended Paleo Drought Data
Base

• Station data network across U.S., Canada,
  Mexico
• Monthly Max Min Temperature Precipitation

• Gridded monthly temp, precip, PDSI
• 0.5 x 0.5 degree lat/lon grid
• Computed for the instrumental period of the 20th
  Century

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0.5 x 0.5 degree latitude/longitude grid for
monthly temperature, precipitation, drought
indices 11,400 gridpoints
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Building the Living Blended Paleo Drought Data
Base

• Paleoclimatic (tree ring) data base across the
  U.S., Canada, Mexico

• Spans the period from the late 20th Century back
  several hundred years

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Building the Living Blended Paleo Drought Data
Base

• Point-by-point regression method
• Applied to the 20th Century period common to both
  data bases
• To develop regression equations relating the tree
  ring chronologies to the instrumental period
  gridded PDSI
• This allows reconstruction of gridded PDSI for
  the pre-20th Century period covered by the tree
  ring data

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Living Blended Paleo Drought Monitoring
Creating the Blend

• The gridded reconstructed PDSI data from the
  paleo record can be stitched to or blended
  with the gridded PDSI computed from the
  instrumental data
• The instrumental gridded PDSI will be updated
  operationally on a monthly basis
• Thus, the paleo-instrumental gridded blend is a
  living drought data base

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Living Blended Paleo Drought Monitoring
Monitoring Products Gridded Data Base
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NIDIS National Integrated Drought Information
System

• NCDC / Climate Monitoring Branch
• Leading the NIDIS Drought Portal Conceptual and
  Social Design Team
• Providing recommendations for and review of the
  Portal content
• Providing programming support for the development
  of the Portal

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International Drought Monitoring Drought Early
Warning System (DEWS)

• Drought does not respect political boundaries
• Water availability is emerging as a critical
  concern for the 21st Century
• There are projections of potential increases in
  the frequency intensity of drought due to
  climate change, coincident with population
  increases
• An International Drought Early Warning System
  would enable the global community to give a
  coordinated response to the drought problem

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International Drought Monitoring Drought Early
Warning System (DEWS)

• November 30 GEO Ministerial Summit in Cape Town,
  South Africa
• The Cape Town Summit is one of the early efforts
  to introduce the concept of a global drought
  early warning system to other countries
• Video presentation, exhibit, and discussion
  planned to discuss the NADM, NIDIS, how they
  fit into a Drought Early Warning System
• Video will include NADM interviews with Canadian
  Mexican partners
• Tabletop book (GEO The Full Picture) will be
  published in advance for Summit distribution
  will include an NADM / DEWS chapter
• Each Nation would need to evaluate their level of
  DEWS involvement Ministerial support needed

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International Drought Monitoring DEWS

• Objectives An International Drought Information
  System that weaves together current and future
  observation systems from participating Nations to
  provide
• An early warning system for drought
• Information for drought response, planning,
  mitigation, and recovery
• An interactive, web-based drought portal and
  analysis tools
• Provide critical drought information to countries
  with inadequate monitoring resources
• Goals
• A system of systems for data information
  sharing, communication, capacity building to
  take on the growing worldwide threat of drought
• Regular drought warning assessments issued as
  frequently as possible with increased frequency
  during a crisis

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International Drought Monitoring DEWS

• Build upon the groundwork laid by GEO (Group on
  Earth Observations) and GEOSS (Global Earth
  Observation System of Systems)
• Could be patterned after the North America
  Drought Monitor (NADM) and U.S. National
  Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
• A Drought Early Warning System requires a GEO
  commitment
• Operational responsibilities
• Research collaboration for developing new
  monitoring, analysis, and forecasting technologies

Many nations have important components of a
drought early warning system. No one nation has
all the tools, products, and data to deliver the
best system.
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Thank You!
NCDC Climate Monitoring Branch Reports
Products http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/rese
arch/monitoring.html NCDC State of the Climate
Reports http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/resea
rch/monitoring.htmlstate North America Drought
Monitor http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/monit
oring/drought/nadm/index.html U.S. Drought
Monitor http//drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html N
IDIS http//drought.gov/