Prsentation PowerPoint

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Heat wave intensity and excess mortality Daniel
Rousseau Conseil Supérieur de la Météorologie
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• Heat wave index
• (Tx-(Tx 10C) IF Tx gtTx 10C
• AND Txgt37C)

Paris Tx 10C 35C
Paris Tx 25C
Heat wave index 23
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Excess deaths estimates in Europe (August
1-August 20)
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Conclusions
1- The excess death rates in the French regions
have been correlated with the values of a very
simple heat wave index. This correlation has
been used to computed expected death rates  in
the other european regions. Results agree fairly
well with the observations. 2- In Paris the
situation has been worsened during the August
11-12 night by boundary layer conditions
keeping warm air at upper floors.
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Conclusions
3- All European countries affected by the 2003
heat wave have shown about the same very high
vulnerability 4- To explain the yearly
variation and variability of the death
rate remains a challenge. Like in summer,
weather conditions in winter could be a major
factor.
Référence La Météorologie, n52 novembre 2005
ECAM 2005, September 14th