Upward and onward

1
Upward and onward

• A study of Scots out-migration
• from a global city
• Allan Findlay, Donald Houston,
• Colin Mason, David McCollum
• and Richard Harrison.

2
Research context

• ESRC Scottish Demography Programme.
• ESRC RES 342-25-009
• ONS Longitudinal Study 30048A

3
Background

• Traditional flows of young, talented individuals
  from periphery to economic core regions.
• London as a key global city.
• South East England (including London) as the UKs
  escalator region Fielding (1992), Champion
  (2004).
• Transients and the global city Conradson and
  Latham (2005).

4
Research aims

• Investigating the factors behind the declining
  Scots born population of London.
• Comparing the occupational mobility of Scots in
  South East England with other groups and places.
• Exploring return migration from the South East to
  Scotland.

5
Scots leave London
Scots born population of London and the South East
Source CASWEB census dissemination unit.
Migration from Scotland to Greater London and the
South East, 1991 and 2001
Source UK National Census one year migration
data.
Migration flows from London to Scotland, selected
years.
Source NHSCR
6
Scots on the escalator
Data relating to proportions of the English and
Scottish born populations of England in
socio-economic groups 1 and 2 at the 2001
census.
Source Calculated from the UK Longitudinal Study
7
Continuing career gains from migration to the
South East
Occupational mobility of Scottish and English
born residents of England 1991-2001.
Source Calculated from the UK Longitudinal
Study expressed as a percentage of all people in
each row of the table.
8
Log linear modelling of occupational mobility

• Once place of residence is included, additional
  variance is explained by place of birth.
• A third significant effect is evident involving
  place of birth and place of residence.

9
So why are Scots leaving?
10
Not in retirement but in early career
Age structure of Scots returnees from SE
(including London) by destination 2001.
.
Source Calculated from special tabulations
provided by GROS
11
Propensity to return

• No relationship by NS-SeC.
• Strong relationship by education level.

12
Destination selectivity by class and education
13
Attitudes to return

• Educated Scots more likely than other skilled
  immigrants in South East to return to area of
  origin?

Likelihood of return to area of origin, degree
qualified in migrants in SE.
Source authors survey
14
Map showing location of the 4 survey areas
Lambeth, Merton, Oxford and Milton Keynes.
15
Conclusions

• Declining Scots population of South East England
  despite continued attraction of career
  opportunities in South East.
• Increasing migration (including returnees) to
  Scotland from the South East.
• Many returnees are young, highly educated and in
  active employment.
• Need for re-theorisation of service class
  migration in relation to global cities.