Climate change seen from Norway

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Climate change seen from Norway

• Knut H. Alfsen
• CICERO
• Center for International Climate and
  Environmental Research Oslo
• METU, Ankara, November 26th, 2008

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Issues to be covered

• Brief background on the ambition level of the 2C
  target
• On the role of technology
• How can a small country (like Norway) best
  contribute to meeting the climate challenge?
• Ways to support technological development

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Impacts of climate change What is the meaning of
2?C?
POTENTIAL DAMAGE
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Water shortage
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(No Transcript)
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How to secure 2C?
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The climate sensitivity
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Global emissions More than 50 reductions in
2050, negative emissions in 2100!
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A skewed world

• Rich countries 16 tCO2-e per year and person
• Poor countires 4 tCO2-e per year and person
• Assume
• 50 reduktion in global emissions
• equal per capita emissions (with todays
  populations)
• Then
• Rich countries must reduce by 82
• Poor countries should reduce by 6
• Aim Zero emissions society!

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IPCC/SRES Scenario families
Very rapid economic growth, low population growth
and rapid introduction of new and more efficient
technology. Major underlying themes are economic
and cultural convergence and capacity building,
with a substantial reduction in regional
differences in per capita income.
A very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme
is that of strengthening regional cultural
identities, with an emphasis on family values and
local traditions, high population growth, and
less concern for rapid economic development.
A1
A2
A world in which the emphasis is on local
solutions to economic, social, and environmental
sustainability. It is again a heterogeneous world
with less rapid, and more diverse technological
change but a strong emphasis on community
initiative and social innovation to find local,
rather than global solutions.
A convergent world with rapid change in economic
structures, "dematerialization" and introduction
of clean technologies. The emphasis is on global
solutions to environmental and social
sustainability, including concerted efforts for
rapid technology development, dematerialization
of the economy, and improving equity.
B2
B1
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CO2 emissions and demand for energy in 2100
Technology choice is important
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Technology The twin challenge
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Phoenix vs Singapore and the need for technology
4 times higher energy use per capita in Phoenix
than in Singapore
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Public support for energy research in IEA
countries
Oil bill 1 700 bill. ? RD 0,5! Subsidies
for fossil US 250 bill.
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Two reasons to be critical to the path followed
so far

• International negotiations, without realistic
  enforcement, cannot result in necessary
  reductions (cf. the Kyoto process).
• Time inconsistency The carbon market is governed
  by the the government. (A political market)
• ---
• It is improbable that market based mechanisms
  alone can deliver necessary investments in
  technology development.
• ? Direct public support for technology
  development is necessary.

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Examples of technology development

• Airplanes
• Gas turbines
• Weapons
• Nuclear reactors
• Pharmaceuticals
• Agriculture

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How can a small country (like Norway) best
contribute?

• Contribute to global reductions. In other words
• 1) Make it cheaper to reduce emissions.
• 2) Prove that a sustainable society is possible
  without substantial emissions of greenhouse
  gases.
• How to secure this?
• 1) Invest in climate friendly technologies where
  we have comparative advantages.
• 2) Reduce our own emissions.
• ---
• A genuine threat against this is to finance low
  technology emission reductions abroad.

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Why technology alone is not enough
Population
Politicians
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Thank you for your attention!