Ihr Titel

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Climate Change and Adaptation- an Overview
-Conference on Biodiversity and Climate Change
Links with Poverty and Sustainable
DevelopmentHanoi, 22-23 May 2007 Bernd-Markus
Liss AGEG Consultants eG on behalf ofGTZ
Climate Protection Programme (CaPP)
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Contents of presentation

• Climate change
• Facts
• Impacts
• Adaptation
• Messages
• Initiatives
• Strategies
• Challenges

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Key messages of the 4th IPCC Report
Climate change - facts

• Climate change is a fact!
• Since 1850 temperature rise of 0,74C
• Sea level rise in 20th century 17 cm
• Increase of extreme weather events

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Climate change - facts
Global and regional rise of temperature so far
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Climate change - facts
Projected temperature rise until 2100
Source 4th IPCC Report
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Projections of the 4th IPCC report for the future
Climate change - facts

• Temperature rise
• even with halting emissions now 0,6 C until
  2100
• depending on scenario 1.0 to 6,3 C until
  2100
• Sea level rise
• 19-58 cm until 2100 (to be continued over many
  centuries)
• But with permanent warming 3C
• melting of Greenland ice
• 7 m (time horizon centuries/millennia)
• Extreme weather events
• Drought, heat waves, heavy rains increasing
• Hurricanes and Cyclones increasing

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Risks caused by cyclones and sea level rise
Climate change - impacts
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Climate change - impacts
Social and ecological impacts
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Climate change is a risk for development
Climate change - impacts

• Numbers and damage caused by global natural
  disasters (storms, floods, heat waves) will
  increase dramatically
• 20-30 decrease of water availability, e.g. in
  southern Africa and Mediterranean with 2 C
  temperature increase (with 4 C it will be 30
  40)
• Up to 80 Million people additionally affected by
  Malaria
• Agricultural yields will decrease by 5 35
• 15 40 of species endangered by extinction
• USD 40 Billion p.a. necessary to make
  international investments climate proof

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Adaptation
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Adaptation - messages
4th IPCC Report Working Group II

• Some key messages
• Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts
  resulting from the warming which is already
  unavoidable due to past emissions
• A wide array of adaptation options is available,
  but more extensive adaptation than is currently
  occurring is required to reduce vulnerability to
  future climate change.
• Options for successful adaptation will diminish
  and costs increase with increasing climate change
• Adaptation alone is not expected to cope with all
  the projected effects of climate change
• A portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures
  can diminish the risks associated with climate
  change

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Adaptation - messages
4th IPCC Report Working Group II

• Some key messages
• Vulnerability to climate change can be
  exacerbated by the presence of other stresses,
  e.g. current climate hazards, poverty and unequal
  access to resources, food insecurity, trends in
  economic globalisation, conflict, and incidence
  of disease
• Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability
  to climate change, SD Strategies need to include
  promoting adaptive capacity and increased
  resilience
• Climate change could impede nations abilities to
  achieve sustainable development (MDGs)
• Some adaptation is already occurring now, but on
  a limited basis

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Adaptation - initiatives
Action and initiatives towards adaptation

• Some initiatives
• UNFCCC adaptation a cross-cutting issue
• COP 10, 2004 Buenos Aires Programme of Work on
  Adaptation and Response Measures
• COP 12, 2006 Nairobi Work Programme on Impacts,
  Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change
• 2006-2007 Regional workshops on adaptation in
  Africa, SIDS, Latin America, Asia
• Further decisions expected at COP 13, Bali,
  Indonesia, December 2007
• Tools for risk analysis and adaptation (OECD,
  FAO, G8, UNFCCC, World Bank) see e.g.
  http//unfccc.int/adaptation or
  www.linkingclimateadaptation.org
• Linking climate change adaptation strategies with
  biodiversity (CBD)
• Community Based Adaptation to Climate Change
  (IUCN, IIED etc.)
• National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs)
  of LDCs

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Adaptation process
Adaptation - strategies
Assessment of Impacts
Determining Vulnerability
Identification of Measures
Setting Priorities
Governance implications
Adaptation is not a purely technical process!
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Options for adaptation to climate change
Adaptation - strategies

• Adaptation strategies and measures include
  aspects of
• Technology (e.g., dyke construction)
• Changes in behaviour (e.g., food, recreational
  choices, individual transport)
• Management (e.g. farm practices, forest
  management)
• Policies (e.g., planning regulations, incentives
  for climate friendly technologies)
• IPCC
• Most technologies and strategies are known, but
  there are environmental, economic, informational,
  social, attitudinal and behavioural barriers to
  implementation of adaptation
• For developing countries, availability of
  resources and building adaptive capacity are
  particularly important

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Examples for adaptation to climate change
Adaptation - strategies
There is no need to re-invent the wheel!

• Micro- und meso level
• Introduction of drought resistant seed
• Strengthening of agrobiodiversity, maintenance of
  gene pools
• Sustainable forest management and protected area
  management
• Watershed management
• Adaptation of infrastructure to climate change
  (e.g. coastal protection)
• Adjustment of settlement and construction
  planning
• Disaster preparedness (early warning systems),
• Macro-level
• Protected area management according to geographic
  changes of biomes (creation of biodiversity
  corridors)
• Management of resettlement and migration
  processes
• Integration into planning processes of relevant
  line ministries,
• Introduction of special insurance products,
• Integrated approaches to reduce vulnerability

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Adaptation - challenges
Adaptation and development cooperation

• Studies of World Bank, OECD, GTZ, etc.
• many projects will be affected negatively by
  climate change
• Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change
  necessary
• tools
• project cycle
• strategies

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Adaptation - challenges
Adaptation and development cooperation - 3 major
challenges

• Ensure sustainability of all DC-projects in times
  of climate change climate proofing
• Adequate, just and cost efficient design of
  adaptation processes
• Financing Who pays how much?

• Stern Review, 2006
• The poorest countries are most vulnerable to
  climate change.
• It is essential that climate change be fully
  integrated into development policy, and that rich
  countries honour their pledges to increase
  support through ODA.

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GTZ Climate Protection Programme
www.gtz.de/climate