MILITARY REVOLUTIONS

1
MILITARY REVOLUTIONS AND REVOLUTIONS IN
MILITARY AFFAIRS (RMAs)
(12 ideas from an airport terminal)
2
Idea Restated Illustration? So What (What
Does It Mean to Us?)?
3
1. Idea Those who live by the RMA, may die by
the RMA. Restated Given time, the competition
will catch up. Illustration? So What (What Does
It Mean to Us?)?
4
1. Idea Those who live by the RMA, may die by
the RMA. Restated Given time, the competition
will catch up. Illustration Napoleons rise and
fall the Soviet reaction to blitzkrieg So What
(What Does It Mean to Us?) The American RMA
advantage of the 90s lasts how long?
5
2. Idea Those slow to adapt to MRs and RMAs may
suffer painful results. Restated Revolutions
wait for no man and no army. Illustration So
What (What Does It Mean to Us?)
6
2. Idea Those slow to adapt to MRs and RMAs may
suffer painful results. Restated Revolutions
wait for no man and no army. Illustration
France (1870, 1914, 1940) the American Civil War
(both sides) So What (What Does It Mean to Us?)
Is our militaryespecially our leaderscapable
of rapid adaptation?
7
3. Idea Leadership in a RMA is difficult to
sustain without a credible strategic
threat. Restated Effective innovation needs a
real problem to focus on. Illustration? So
What (What Does It Mean to Us?)?
8
3. Idea Leadership in a RMA is difficult to
sustain without a credible strategic
threat. Restated Effective innovation needs a
real problem to focus on. Illustration? British
mechanization experiments in the 1920s vs the
USMC development of amphibious doctrine. So What
(What Does It Mean to Us?)? What do we prepare
for after Iraq?
9

• Idea Your dominance in an area of warfare will
  inspire others to launch their own RMA.
• Restated Strategic inferiority will inspire
  innovation in your competitors.
• Illustration?
• So What (What Does It Mean to Us?)?

10

• Idea Your dominance in an area of warfare will
  inspire others to launch their own RMA.
• Restated Strategic inferiority will inspire
  innovation in your competitors.
• Illustration? Maurice and Holland vs the Spanish
  Habsburg Empire Prussia in the Wars of
  Unification.
• So What (What Does It Mean to Us?)?
• How will our military strength inspire China?

11
5. Idea Building doctrine for a RMA can not be
divorced from experience. Restated The lessons
of history were won with blood. Illustration?
So What (What Does It Mean to Us?)?
12
5. Idea Building doctrine for a RMA can not be
divorced from experience. Restated The lessons
of history were won with blood. Illustration?
USAAF (unescorted bombers) in 1943 USN
(unescorted ships) in 1942. So What (What Does
It Mean to Us?)? Is our doctrine grounded in
reality?
13
6. Idea The almost RMA from last time might
turn out to be decisive next time. Restated
Learn from your near misses and lost
opportunities. Illustration? So What (What
Does It Mean to Us?)?
14
6. Idea The almost RMA from last time might
turn out to be decisive next time. Restated
Learn from your near misses and lost
opportunities. Illustration? U-Boats in World
War I vs US subs in the Pacific tanks in 1918
and blitzkrieg against France, 1940. So What
(What Does It Mean to Us?)? What trends are we
exploiting and which ones are we missing?
15
7. Idea The nature of war is impervious to
Military Revolutions and RMAs. Restated The
weapons change people and motives do
not. Illustration? So What (What Does It Mean
to Us?)?
16
7. Idea The nature of war is impervious to
Military Revolutions and RMAs. Restated The
weapons change people and motives do
not. Illustration? So What (What Does It Mean
to Us?)?
17
7. Idea The nature of war is impervious to
Military Revolutions and RMAs. Restated The
weapons change people and motives do
not. Illustration? The paradoxical trinity
(from Napoleon to the GWOT) fatigue, fear, fog,
friction. So What (What Does It Mean to
Us?)? How much can technology compensate for
unclear objectives? Lack of will?
18
8. Idea You guide RMAs, You ride
Military Revolutions. Restated Dramatic changes
in society and the conduct of war are often
beyond control. Deal with it. Illustration?
So What (What Does It Mean to Us?)?
19
8. Idea You guide RMAs, You ride
Military Revolutions. Restated Dramatic changes
in society and the conduct of war are often
beyond control. Deal with it. Illustration? The
French Revolution and the Combined Arms
Revolution (WWI). So What (What Does It Mean to
Us?)? What trends are beyond our control? Steer
or surf?
20
8. Idea You guide RMAs, You ride
Military Revolutions. Restated Dramatic changes
in society and the conduct of war are often
beyond control. Deal with it. Illustration? The
French Revolution and the Combined Arms
Revolution (WWI). So What (What Does It Mean to
Us?)? What trends are beyond our control? Steer
or surf?
21

• Idea Even before it is matured on the
  battlefield, a RMA may generate a counter-RMA.
• Restated If you advertise your fabulous
  innovations, someone may notice.
• Illustration?
• So What (What Does It Mean to Us?)?

22

• Idea Even before it is matured on the
  battlefield, a RMA may generate a counter-RMA.
• Restated If you advertise your fabulous
  innovations, someone may notice.
• Illustration?
• So What (What Does It Mean to Us?)?

23
9. Idea Even before it is matured on the
battlefield, a RMA may generate a
counter-RMA. Restated If you advertise your
fabulous innovations, someone may
notice. Illustration? RAF integrated air defense
vs the Luftwaffe the Manhattan project vs German
atomic research. So What (What Does It Mean to
Us?)? What countermeasures are future enemies
already building?
24
10. Idea Not all MRs and RMAs are
technology-based. Restated Changes driven by
political upheaval, social change, and economic
development can change war dramatically. Illustra
tion? So What (What Does It Mean to Us?)?
25
10. Idea Not all MRs and RMAs are
technology-based. Restated Changes driven by
political upheaval, social change, and economic
development can change war dramatically. Illustra
tion? The French Revolution So What (What Does
It Mean to Us?)? Does our fascination with
technology blind us to other opportunities/threats
?
26
11. Idea One services beloved MR or RMA may
serve to marginalize another service. Restated
What looks revolutionary to the Navy or Air
Force, may not look that way to the
Army. Illustration? So What (What Does It Mean
to Us?)?
27
11. Idea One services beloved MR or RMA may
serve to marginalize another service. Restated
What looks revolutionary to the Navy or Air
Force, may not look that way to the
Army. Illustration? The US Army in the Pentomic
Era. So What (What Does It Mean to Us?)? Do the
USN, USAF, and Army agree on the advantages
offered by the Info Revolution?
28
12. Idea Leadership in a RMA can not overcome
grievous strategic errors. Restated Tactical
brilliance will not compensate for taking on more
enemy than you can handle. Illustration? So
What (What Does It Mean to Us?)?
29
12. Idea Leadership in a RMA can not overcome
grievous strategic errors. Restated Tactical
brilliance will not compensate for taking on more
enemy than you can handle. Illustration?
Barbarossa, Pearl Harbor. So What (What Does It
Mean to Us?)? Does victory in the GWOT depend
more on technological brilliance or competent
strategy?