Knowledge and Warfare: The Revolution in Military Affairs

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Knowledge and Warfare The Revolution in Military
Affairs
Knowledge Management and Warfare in the
Information Age

• Dr Michael Evans
• Land Warfare Studies Centre

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The Meaning of a Revolution in Military Affairs
(RMA)

• The contemporary RMA refers to the transformation
  of war by information-age technologies such as
  computers, microelectronics and precision weapons

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The RMA and Information Superiority

• The cornerstone of the RMA is information
  superiority, the capability to collect, process
  and disseminate an uninterrupted flow of
  information while exploiting or denying an
  adversarys ability to do the same

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The US Philosophy of Information Superiority

• To find, fix, track and target - in near real
  time - anything that moves or is located on the
  face of the Earth.
• General Ronald R. Fogelman, Chief of Staff, US
  Air Force, February 1997
• Information superiority is at the core of
  military innovation.
• General Henry Shelton, Chairman, US Joint Chiefs
  of Staff, March 1999

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Three Themes of the Presentation

• Overview the American RMA and the role of
  knowledge in war
• Outline US Pentagon response to information-age
  warfare
• Assess Australias Knowledge Edge philosophy and
  its implications

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An Overview of the American Revolution in
Military Affairs
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Key Technologies of the RMA

• C4ISR (command, control, communications,
  computers, intelligence, surveillance and
  reconnaissance)
• PGMs (long range precision strike)
• Stealth (low-observable platforms)

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Four Characteristics of the RMA Debate

• RMA is at once a process, a hypothesis and a
  debate
• RMA closely linked to globalisation and
  information revolution
• RMA largely an American phenomenon
• Notion of an RMA is attractive to Western
  theorists for cultural reasons

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American RMA Schools

• System of systems
• Dominant battlespace knowledge
• Global reach, global power school
• Economic determinists
• Contingent innovators
• Vulnerability school
• Essential continuity school

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System of Systems
RMA School

• Promotes information superiority via situational
  awareness
• Believes information grid connecting sensors to
  shooters will emerge
• Future of war lies in network-centric warfare
  (exploiting OODA Loop)

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Dominant Battlespace Knowledge RMA School

• Believes new technology will create DBK and
  transparent non-linear battlespace
• Believes that unity of C4ISR, PGMs and Stealth
  technology will make military operations
  full-dimensional
• Linear mass in war will give way to non-linear
  effects-based operations

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Dr Libicki and The Terminator Vision

• Future warfare will be a conflict between
  machines (MEMS, robotics, nanotechnology
  battlefield meshes)
• The small and the many will triumph over the
  large, the complex and the few
• To see is to know to know is to be able to
  strike to strike is to be able to win

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Global Reach, Global Power RMA School

• Associated mainly with USAF and based on Rapid
  Decisive Operations (RDO)
• Promotes deep strike air power (B-2 bombers,
  cruise missiles, JDAMs)
• Sees evolution of USAF into an aerospace force
  based on UAVs/UCAVs and lasers

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Economic Determinist or Third Wave RMA School

• RMA shaped by civilian IT/knowledge economy
• Third Wave war the way we make war reflects the
  way we make wealth
• Third Wave militaries will be small, specialised
  and knowledge-based

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Contingent Innovation RMA School

• Looks to lessons of military history for guidance
  (e.g. 16th century gunpowder revolution and 20th
  century blitzkrieg doctrine)
• Argues that military revolution springs from
  technology added to knowledge (doctrine and
  concepts)

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Technology, Knowledge and Military Revolution

• A military revolution occurs when the
  application of new technologies into a
  significant number of military systems combines
  with innovative operational concepts and
  organisational adaptation in a way that
  fundamentally alters the character and conduct of
  conflict
• Andrew Krepinevich, From Cavalry to Computer
  Patterns of Military Revolution (1994)

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The Vulnerability RMA School

• Fears rapid weapons proliferation, WMD threat and
  asymmetric challenges
• Future may not be Son of Desert Storm but
  Stepchild of Somalia and Chechnya - General
  Charles C. Krulak, USMC (1996)
• Fears of this school realised on September 11
  with al-Qaeda attacks on US homeland

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Essential Continuity RMA School

• Sees no revolutionary paradigm shift in warfare
• Believes in military transformation rather than
  military revolution
• Warns that many RMA models ( e. g. blitzkrieg)
  were based on evolution not revolution

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The Heart of the American RMA Debate

• At the heart of the RMA debate lies the impact
  of electronics, computers and precision munitions
  on warfare and the notion of a transition towards
  information-age knowledge based warfare
  although there are differences over pace and
  direction

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Towards Knowledge Warfare
The Pentagon and the RMA
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Main Features of
Joint Vision 2020

• Seeks information superiority by
• dominant manoeuvre (using IO)
• precision engagement (missile power)
• full-dimensional protection (battlespace
  control)
• focused logistics (force sustainment)

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US Military Caution over Transformation

• Lack of RMA consensus provides limited options
  for rapid force transformation
• Uneven technology means much experimentation and
  field trials
• RMA developments in computers, electronics,
  munitions not matched by revolution in sensors or
  platforms

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Legacy Systems and Information Superiority

• US still requires legacy systems (artillery,
  manned aircraft, helicopters)
• Legacy systems accompanied by revolutionary
  weapons systems (JDAMs, UAVs, UCAVs)
• Complete information superiority still an
  aspiration rather than a reality

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The Experience of Kosovo

• NATO had information superiority but
• Did not achieve full battlespace awareness or
  perfect precision
• Aircraft struck wrong targets and could not stop
  ethnic cleansing by Serbs
• Sensor technology was inadequate
• Campaign showed dangers of information
  saturation

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The Experience of Afghanistan

• USAF pulversised Taliban/al-Qaeda but
• Unlike Kosovo key role played by Special Forces
  and Afghan proxies
• Overreliance on PGMs led to possible escape of
  Osama bin Laden
• Air power like teenage sex offers instant
  gratification not lasting commitment

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The Precision Revolution and Knowledge-Based
Warfare

• Parts of RMA greater than whole
• From information superiority to DBK still more
  theory than reality
• Precision revolution coexists with legacy systems

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Australia and the Knowledge Edge
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Defining the Knowledge Edge

• Outlined in 1997
• as ADFs highest capability priority
• and defined as the effective exploitation of
  information technologies to allow us to use our
  relatively small force to maximum effectiveness

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The RMAs Potential for Australia

• The RMA will introduce a fundamentally
  different style of warfare . . . where distance
  offers no protection where if a target can be
  found it can be destroyed where the most
  precious commodity will be information and the
  most deadly military weapon will be speed
• Ian McLachlan, Minister for Defence, June 1996

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Information Warfare and the ADF Knowledge Edge

• Information warfare. . . The Revolution in
  Military Affairs . . . Is where our comparative
  advantage over potential adversaries is likely to
  last longest. In coming years, it will be harder
  for Australia to match regional numbers of
  platforms such as ships and aircraft.
• Defence Review 2000 Our Future Defence Force,
  June 2000

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Developing the Knowledge Edge in the 21st Century

• A Knowledge Edge exists when, as a result of
  leveraging and exploiting information,
  communications and other technologies, and by the
  application of human cognition, reasoning and
  innovation, there is a comparative advantage in
  those factors that influence decision making and
  its effective execution
• ADF Brief on the Knowledge Edge, June 2000

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Defence 2000 and the Knowledge Edge

• 2000-12 A 2.5b to be spent on ADF Information
  Capabilities
• Will include JSF, stealth, ARHs, UAVs and UCAVs
• Knowledge Edge will be the foundation of our
  military capability

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Knowledge Management and the Knowledge Staff

• ADF Knowledge Staff created in mid-2001
• Focuses on Network-Enabled Warfare (NEW) and
  creating a surveillance system
• NEW described as warfare deriving power from
  robust, rapid networking of well-informed,
  rapidly deployable forces and/or effects (July
  2002)

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The Character of the Australian Knowledge Edge

• Viewed in terms of American RMA schools
• Is a blend of system of system and contingent
  innovation schools
• Growing recognition of asymmetric challenge may
  mean closer affinity with vulnerability school

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Conclusion
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Future Scenarios to 2025

• Likely system of systems or variant of DBK will
  emerge making the battlespace much more
  transparent
• Unlikely a Terminator-style battlefield mesh
  based MEMS, robotics and biotechnology. These
  trends are in their infancy operationally

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Information, Knowledge and Wisdom

• What shapes the conduct of international
  relations and therefore the course of history is
  not only the number of people with access to
  information it is more importantly how they
  analyse it. Since the mass of information tends
  to exceed the capacity to evaluate it, a gap has
  opened up between information and knowledge, and
  even beyond that, between knowledge and wisdom
• Henry Kissinger, Does America Need a Foreign
  Policy? (2001)

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21st Century Modes of Conflict

• Pre-modern conflict (religious terrorists,
  low-tech ethnic militia)
• Modern conflict (conventional wars a la Gulf or
  Korea)
• Post-modern conflict (combinations of high-tech
  warfare and casualty limitation)

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Why a Knowledge Edge is Important in War

• War is a matter of vital importance to the State
  the province of life or death the road to
  survival or ruin. It is mandatory that it be
  thoroughly studied
• Sun Zi, The Art of War

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Questions?