SEE: Facing the Crisis

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SEE Facing the Crisis

• February 2009

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Contents

• Recession throughout the region
• Prices declinig exchange rates under pressure
• Risks of fixed exchange rates collapsing
• Significant refinancing needs
• Limited policy options in the short term
• Stagnation probably in the medium term

3
Quarterly GDP, 2005-2009real change in against
preceding year
Source Eurostat.
4
GDP, 2008-2009real change in against preceding
year
Source wiiw Monthly Database incorporating
national statistics, Eurostat.
5
Gross industrial production, 2006-20083-month
moving average
Source wiiw Monthly Database incorporating
national statistics.
6
Gross industrial production, 20082007100
Source wiiw Monthly Database incorporating
national statistics.
7
Employment rate, unemployment rate Quarterly, 1q
2005100
Source Eurostat.
8
Consumer price inflation, 2006-2009year-on-year
growth in
Source wiiw Monthly Database incorporating
national statistics.
9
Consumer prices, 2008Jan 2007100
Source wiiw Monthly Database incorporating
national statistics.
10
Consumer prices, 2008Jan 2007100
Source wiiw Monthly Database incorporating
national statistics.
11
Nominal exchange rates, 2006-2008EUR per NCU,
monthly average, January 2006100
Source wiiw Monthly Database incorporating
national statistics.
12
Exchange rates, 2007-2008EUR per NCU, Jan
2007100
Values over 100 indicate appreciation relative
to January 2007. Source wiiw Monthly Database
incorporating national statistics.
13
Exports 2006-2008EUR based, January 2006100
Source wiiw Monthly Database incorporating
national statistics.
14
Imports 2006-2008EUR based, January 2006100
Source wiiw Monthly Database incorporating
national statistics.
15
Foreign trade, 2008EUR mn
SEE-5
Turkey
Note SEE-5 (AL, BA, HR, MK, RS) Source wiiw
Monthly Database incorporating national
statistics.
16
Composition of the current account EUR million
Source Eurostat.
17
Wages and unit labour costs in industry, in EUR
Jan 2007100
Calculated with current exchange rates. Source
wiiw Monthly Database incorporating national
statistics.
18
Money M1, 2008year-on-year in
Source wiiw Monthly Database incorporating
national statistics.
19
Leading NB-interest rates, 2006-2008Real (CPI
deflated), in p.a.
Source wiiw Monthly Database incorporating
national statistics.
20
Consumption of householdsreal change in
against preceding year
Source wiiw Database incorporating national
statistics. Forecasts by wiiw.
21
Gross fixed capital formation real change in
against preceding year
Source wiiw Database incorporating national
statistics. Forecasts by wiiw.
22
Components of the Balance of Payments (BOP)
Source National banks of respective countries.
23
Exchange rates, 2007-2008EUR per NCU, Jan
2007100
Values over 100 indicate appreciation relative
to January 2007. Source wiiw Monthly Database
incorporating national statistics.
24
General government budget and public debt in of
GDP, 2008
Source wiiw Database incorporating national
statistics. Forecasts by wiiw.
25
Nominal stability indicators, 2008change in
against preceding year
Source wiiw Database incorporating national
statistics. Forecasts by wiiw.
26
Employment and unemployment, LFS definition,
annual averages, 2008
Source wiiw Database incorporating national
statistics. Forecasts by wiiw.
27
Fiscal balance in of GDP
EU definition net lending () or net borrowing
(-) according to ESA'95, excessive deficit
procedure. Source wiiw Database incorporating
Eurostat statistics.
28
Foreign direct investment toNew EU Member States
Excluding Special Purpose enterprises
(SPE). Source wiiw Database incorporating
national bank statistics. Forecasts by wiiw.
29
Figure 4 Trade deficit and current account,
2002-2007 in of GDP
Source wiiw Annual Database incorporating
national statistics.