Linked to CCSP

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US Ocean Research Priorities Plan (ORPP)
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
(AMOC) Implications for Rapid Climate Change A
Near-Term Priority (1 of 4) of the ORPP

• Anticipated Outcomes
• Enhanced understanding of the AMOC system
• Design of a comprehensive MOC observation and
  monitoring program.
• New forecasting capabilities
• Improved ocean models, coupled models, and ocean
  analyses for their initialization.
• Characterization of the impacts and feedbacks of
  changes in the MOC on ecosystems, carbon budgets,
  and regional climate.

• 5-year Program
• Potential of 5M-15M per year
• AMOC Implementation Strategy released Oct 2007
• New and existing funds employed
• CLIVAR is engaging to coordinate intl activities

Linked to CCSP
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AMOC Programmatic Development

• January 2007 NSTC/JSOST Ocean Research
  Priorities Plan (ORPP) released. Identifies
  Atlantic MOC (AMOC) as one of four near-term (5
  year) priorities. 5M-15M per year in support.
• May 2007 AMOC Planning Team formed
• October 2007 AMOC Implementation Strategy
  published
• Feb 2008 AMOC Science Team (AMOCST) formed
• March 2008 AMOCST first meeting
• FUNDING FY08 Up to 5M in new funding, some
  activities supported through existing funds
• FY09 Additional funds requested by the
  President long way to go

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AMOC Implementation Strategy (Oct 2007)
AMOC Motivating Questions

• What is the current state of the AMOC?
• How has the AMOC varied in the past on
  interannual to centennial time scales?
• What governs AMOC changes?
• Is the AMOC predictable on 10-100 year
  timescales?
• What are the impacts of AMOC variability and
  change?

AMOC Scientific Objectives

• The design and implementation of an AMOC
  monitoring system
• An assessment of AMOCs role in the global
  climate
• An assessment of AMOC predictability

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AMOC Implementation Strategy (Oct 2007)
Specific Expected Outcomes

• The identification of an AMOC "fingerprint" and
  indices based on observable variables and
  paleo-proxies (2011-2012)
• An estimate of the current state and variability
  of the AMOC (2008-2011)
• The design and initial implementation of a
  trans-basin AMOC monitoring network (2008-2012)
• An assessment of AMOC meridional connectivity and
  property (e.g. mass, heat, freshwater) transports
  (2008-2011)
• The identification of mechanisms important for
  AMOC variability and assessment of AMOC
  predictability (2008-2012)
• An updated assessment of the risk of rapid change
  in AMOC affecting our climate (2010-2012)
• The characterization of the role in climate
  system and potential impacts (e.g., on the
  climate system, ocean variables, sea level, etc.)
  of AMOC changes (2009-2012)

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AMOC Program Execution
AMOC Science Team Chair Susan Lozier
U.S. CLIVAR Inter-Agency Working Group
(David Legler - US CLIVAR Office)
NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO) Observing
systems, monitoring, climate modeling James Todd,
Climate Variability and Predictability
Program Mike Johnson, Climate Observations
NSF Geosciences program Process studies, models,
and observations Eric Itsweire, Physical
Oceanography Program Walter Robinson, Climate
Dynamics
NASA Earth Science Division Satellite data
analyses, modeling and space-based
observations Eric Lindstrom, Physical
Oceanography Program, AMOC Lead
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AMOC Summary

• US AMOC effort underwayscope and size will be
  determined by availability of resources. Some
• Great interest/need to coordinate with
  international AMOC activities (Atlantic Panel)
• AMOC activities and CLIVAR/GSOP
• Contribution to Oceanobs 09?
• Increase in support for ocean data assimilation
  particularly aimed at AMOC issues
• Increased focus on decadal variability/predictabil
  ity studies, especially initialized climate
  predictions

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AMOC Science Team (Mar 2008)

• Susan Lozier, Duke University
• John Toole, WHOI
• Ping Chang, TAMU
• Bill Johns, RSMAS-Univ of Miami
• Molly Baringer, NOAA-AOML
• Tom Delworth, NOAA-GFDL
• Tim Liu, NASA-JPL
• Sirpa Hakkinen, NASA-GSFC
• Josh Willis, NASA-JPL
• Tony Lee, NASA-JPL
• Jim Carton, University of Maryland

AMOCST will expand with funding of additional
FY08 proposals
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AMOC Implementation Strategy (Oct 2007)
Recommended Activities

• Develop an AMOC state estimate or fingerprint
• Monitor AMOC transports
• Evaluate coherence and connectivity of AMOC
  circulation and transports
• Assess AMOC observing systems with ocean models
• Reconstruct AMOC variability and associated
  property fields
• Model the ocean state during the instrumental
  period
• Develop longer-term proxies for AMOC variability
• Diagnose mechanisms of AMOC variability and
  change
• Assess AMOC predictability
• Determine impact and feedback of AMOC variability
• Assess role of AMOC in producing observed changes