Climate Change and

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Climate Change and the Uncomfortable Middle
Ground The Geoengineering and No Regrets
Policy Alternative David W. Schnare, Esq.
Ph.D. Senior Environmental Fellow Thomas
Jefferson Institute for Public Policy dwschnare_at_co
x.net A Paper Delivered at The 2008 International
Conference on Climate Change Sponsored by The
Heartland Institute March 2 - March 4,
2008 This paper reflects the views of its
author and does not necessarily reflect the views
of the Thomas Jefferson Institute or the U.S.
Environmental Protection agency.
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In preparation for this session,
I had a civil discussion with
representatives of the Anthropomorphic Global
Warming (AGW) Community
(Alarmists)
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Then I had a civil discussion with
representatives of those who believe we are
seeing Natural Warming Cycles
(Skeptics)
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Then I listened to a civil debate between the two
positions.
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I cannot say in all honesty that it was a civil
discussion
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Without a civil discussion all we can discuss is
The Uncomfortable Middle Ground
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The AGW Argument

• The AGW goal is to prevent catastrophic climate
  change, especially from ocean level rise.

• 23 foot ocean level rise at 2ºC

• 2ºC Temperature rise at 450 ppm CO2eq.

• We reached 450 ppm CO2eq in 2005.

• The tipping point for melting of perennial sea
  ice has already been reached.

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To reiterate, it is too late!
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The Words of the AGW
The emission- reduction target laid out in a
Senate bill is insufficient to prevent severe
effects of climate change
IPCC Chairman Rajendra Pachauri
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The Words of the AGW
Avoiding future human-induced climate warming
through GHG reduction alone will require policies
that seek not only to decrease CO2 emissions, but
to eliminate them entirely.
Matthews and Caldeira
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The Words of the AGW
Considering the inertia in our present
fossil-fuel-dependent energy infrastructure and
in our political systems, we appear committed to
runaway warming unless we cool the earth at least
enough to restore the Arctic sea ice.
James Hansen
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The Natural Warming Argument
Observed global warming reflects natural cycles.
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The 100,000 year cycle
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The 1,500 and 500 year cycles
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The 40 and 11 year cycles
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The Natural Warming Argument
Although we seem to be at midpoint ascending the
500 year cycle, we are approaching or near the
top of every other warming cycle.
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The common ground on environmental impacts

• The earth is warming

• Past similar warming events were associated with
  significant ocean rise

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The common ground on environmental impacts

• Past similar warming events were associated with
  elevated CO2 levels and subsequent ocean
  acidification, (disregarding the issue as to
  whether CO2 caused warming or warming caused CO2
  increases)

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The common ground on environmental impacts

• Failure to prevent the warming has the potential
  to cause catastrophic ocean rise and ocean
  acidification, even if there remains disagreement
  on the size of that potential

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The common ground on environmental impacts

• Warming will cause changes in local climates and
  harm local ecologies.

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Common ground on attitudes toward global warming

• Humanity does not have the will to reduce GHG
  emissions to near-zero

• Nations will reduce energy consumption if it
  would reduce energy costs

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Common ground on attitudes toward global warming

• If warming continues, humanity will need to find
  a way to cool the planet.

• No one wishes to take steps to cool the planet if
  it would cause more problems than it would solve

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The common ground on responses to global warming

• Geoengineering will be needed to cool the planet

• Geoengineering may be needed to de-acidify the
  ocean

• Geoengineering may be needed to sequester large
  quantities of carbon

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The common ground on responses to global warming

• Research on geoengineering needs to accelerate
  significantly in order for it to be available
  when it is needed

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The common ground on responses to global warming

• Some energy consumption can be reduced in a
  cost-effective (no regrets manner with the
  associated benefit of reducing GHGs)

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The common ground on responses to global warming

• Research on global warming, GHG reduction, energy
  alternatives, and geophysical (global) systems
  should continue

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Geoengineering
Solar Radiation Management Aerosols
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Geoengineering
Solar Radiation Management Cloud Albedo Control
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Geoengineering
Iron and Urea Ocean Fertilization
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Geoengineering
Ocean De-Acidification

• Accelerated Weathering
• Ocean Liming

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Geoengineering
Low-Tech Ocean Carbon Sequestration

• Carbon into the soils -- no-till farming
• Carbon waste deep into the ocean

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No Regrets Strategies
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No Regrets Strategies

• Modify residential and commercial electronics
  energy use
• Replace incandescent residential and commercial
  lighting
• Use fuel economy packages on light trucks and
  cars
• Apply shell improvements on new residential and
  commercial buildings
• Apply combined heat and power options in
  commercial buildings
• Install efficiency improvements on older power
  plants
• Use conservation silage and non-tillage in
  agricultural settings
• Install various industrial process improvements
  that reduce energy needs
• Replace old with new residential water heaters
• Apply modern coal-mining methane management
• Install commercial building energy control
  systems

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Small Regrets Strategies

• Low penetration onshore wind power
• Natural gas and petroleum systems management
  improvements
• Residential building shell retrofits
• Build nuclear power in place of coal- and
  gas-fired electrical generating plants

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High Cost Strategies

• All forms of direct solar power (photovoltaic and
  CSP)
• Residential and commercial HVAC high efficiency
  equipment (a LEED element)
• Carbon Capture at coal-fired power plants and
  carbon-intensive industrial processes
• Afforestation of cropland
• Medium and high penetration onshore wind power
• Biomass power generation
• Shifting from coal to gas electricity generation
• Hybrid automobiles.

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Climate Change and the Uncomfortable Middle
Ground The Geoengineering and No Regrets
Policy Alternative David W. Schnare, Esq.
Ph.D. Senior Environmental Fellow Thomas
Jefferson Institute for Public Policy dwschnare_at_co
x.net