Impact of climate change on species, populations and communities

1
Impact of climate change on species, populations
and communities The genetics and ecology of
environmental change Reconstructing climate and
vegetation change from the fossil record K.D.
Bennett Geography, Archaeology and
Palaeoecology Queen's University Belfast Northern
Ireland
2
Introduction
The rate and direction of plant movement across
the landscape has been under investigation for
decades
Modern molecular techniques applied to living
populations and ancient DNA provide important
additional information, particularly about
ancestry
However, more classical approaches still have
much to offer
3
Aims
Outline the basics of pollen analysis
Outline some of the major results in terms of
plant movement
Evolutionary implications?
4
Siggaboda forest, southern Sweden
THIS is the forest primeval. The murmuring pines
and the hemlocks, Bearded with moss, and in
garments green, indistinct in the twilight, Stand
like Druids of eld, ... Evangeline by HW
Longfellow
5
Pollen analysis completed ....
Von Post, L. 1946. The prospect for pollen
analysis in the study of the Earths climatic
history. New Phytologist 45, 193-217.
6
Pollen analysis principles I
1. Pollen and spores are produced in great
abundance. Wind-pollinated plants, in general,
produce more pollen than animal-pollinated
plants 2. Pollen from different plants is
well-mixed in the atmosphere and by water
transport, giving a uniform pollen rain 3. Most
pollen and spores fall, sooner or later, to the
ground surface 4. Pollen and spores are
preserved where anaerobic conditions inhibit
decomposition (especially in mires and lake
sediments) 5. Pollen is identifiable to various
taxonomic levels 6. The abundance of each
pollen type in a sediment sample is a measure
of its abundance in the surrounding vegetation
7
Pollen analysis principles II
7. The pollen spectrum from a sediment sample of
known age is an index of the vegetation
surrounding that place at that time 8. Pollen
spectra from many levels of a sediment sequence
provide a record of vegetation surrounding
that place at that time 9. Pollen spectra from
several sites can be compared to give a picture
of past spatial variation in vegetation.
8
Laguna Facil, southern Chile a typical core site
9
Coring a small lake in Scotland
10
Pollen variety
11
Nutt lake pollen diagram
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Migration
Migration movement of taxa on long-timescales Po
llen evidence for migration on glacial-interglacia
l timescales Rates of migration Factors that
enable migration
13
Skellams calculation
Oak (Quercus) has spread 1000 km in 20,000 years,
across Europe
This is roughly 50 m yr-1, which is far greater
than can be achieved if dispersal is solely due
to passive movement of acorns from the parent tree
Therefore, acorns must be dispersed by some other
mechanism, presumably animals
Skellam, J.G. 1951. Random dispersal in
theoretical populations. Biometrika 38, 196-218.
14
Davis isochrones
M. B. Davis. Quaternary history and the stability
of forest communities. In D. C. West, H. H.
Shugart, and D. B. Botkin, editors, Forest
Succession Concepts and Application, pages
132-153. Springer, New York, 1981.
15
Davis isochrones
M. B. Davis. Quaternary history of deciduous
forests of eastern North America and Europe.
Annals of the Missouri Botanical Garden,
70550-563, 1983.
16
Davis isochrones
M. B. Davis. Quaternary history of deciduous
forests of eastern North America and Europe.
Annals of the Missouri Botanical Garden,
70550-563, 1983.
17
Davis isochrones
M. B. Davis. Quaternary history of deciduous
forests of eastern North America and Europe.
Annals of the Missouri Botanical Garden,
70550-563, 1983.
18
Holocene spread of spruce
19
Huntley Birks isopoll
Quercus 13,000-0 BP
B.Huntley and H.J.B. Birks. An Atlas of Past and
Present Pollen Maps for Europe 0-13,000 Years
Ago. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1983.
20
Huntley Birks isopoll
Quercus 13,000-0 BP
B.Huntley and H.J.B. Birks. An Atlas of Past and
Present Pollen Maps for Europe 0-13,000 Years
Ago. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1983.
21
Huntley Birks isopoll
Quercus 13,000-0 BP
B.Huntley and H.J.B. Birks. An Atlas of Past and
Present Pollen Maps for Europe 0-13,000 Years
Ago. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1983.
22
Huntley Birks isopoll
Quercus 13,000-0 BP
B.Huntley and H.J.B. Birks. An Atlas of Past and
Present Pollen Maps for Europe 0-13,000 Years
Ago. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1983.
23
Huntley Birks isopoll
Quercus 13,000-0 BP
B.Huntley and H.J.B. Birks. An Atlas of Past and
Present Pollen Maps for Europe 0-13,000 Years
Ago. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1983.
24
Huntley Birks isopoll
Quercus 13,000-0 BP
B.Huntley and H.J.B. Birks. An Atlas of Past and
Present Pollen Maps for Europe 0-13,000 Years
Ago. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1983.
25
Huntley Birks isopoll
Quercus 13,000-0 BP
B.Huntley and H.J.B. Birks. An Atlas of Past and
Present Pollen Maps for Europe 0-13,000 Years
Ago. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1983.
26
Huntley Birks isopoll
Quercus 13,000-0 BP
B.Huntley and H.J.B. Birks. An Atlas of Past and
Present Pollen Maps for Europe 0-13,000 Years
Ago. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1983.
27
Huntley Birks isopoll
Quercus 13,000-0 BP
B.Huntley and H.J.B. Birks. An Atlas of Past and
Present Pollen Maps for Europe 0-13,000 Years
Ago. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1983.
28
Huntley Birks isopoll
Quercus 13,000-0 BP
B.Huntley and H.J.B. Birks. An Atlas of Past and
Present Pollen Maps for Europe 0-13,000 Years
Ago. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1983.
29
Huntley Birks isopoll
Quercus 13,000-0 BP
B.Huntley and H.J.B. Birks. An Atlas of Past and
Present Pollen Maps for Europe 0-13,000 Years
Ago. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1983.
30
Huntley Birks isopoll
Quercus 13,000-0 BP
B.Huntley and H.J.B. Birks. An Atlas of Past and
Present Pollen Maps for Europe 0-13,000 Years
Ago. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1983.
31
Huntley Birks isopoll
Quercus 13,000-0 BP
B.Huntley and H.J.B. Birks. An Atlas of Past and
Present Pollen Maps for Europe 0-13,000 Years
Ago. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1983.
32
Huntley Birks isopoll
Quercus 13,000-0 BP
B.Huntley and H.J.B. Birks. An Atlas of Past and
Present Pollen Maps for Europe 0-13,000 Years
Ago. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1983.
33
Huntley Birks isopoll
Quercus 13,000-0 BP
B.Huntley and H.J.B. Birks. An Atlas of Past and
Present Pollen Maps for Europe 0-13,000 Years
Ago. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1983.
34
Huntley Birks isopoll
Quercus 13,000-0 BP
B.Huntley and H.J.B. Birks. An Atlas of Past and
Present Pollen Maps for Europe 0-13,000 Years
Ago. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1983.
35
Huntley Birks migration
Rates 50-2000m yr-1
B.Huntley and H.J.B. Birks. An Atlas of Past and
Present Pollen Maps for Europe 0-13,000 Years
Ago. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1983.
36
Birks isochrones
H. J. B. Birks. Holocene isochrone maps and
patterns of tree-spreading in the British Isles.
Journal of Biogeography, 16503-540, 1989.
37
Birks isochrones
H. J. B. Birks. Holocene isochrone maps and
patterns of tree-spreading in the British Isles.
Journal of Biogeography, 16503-540, 1989.
38
Birks isochrones
H. J. B. Birks. Holocene isochrone maps and
patterns of tree-spreading in the British Isles.
Journal of Biogeography, 16503-540, 1989.
39
Birks isochrones
H. J. B. Birks. Holocene isochrone maps and
patterns of tree-spreading in the British Isles.
Journal of Biogeography, 16503-540, 1989.
40
Birks isochrones
H. J. B. Birks. Holocene isochrone maps and
patterns of tree-spreading in the British Isles.
Journal of Biogeography, 16503-540, 1989.
41
Birks isochrones
H. J. B. Birks. Holocene isochrone maps and
patterns of tree-spreading in the British Isles.
Journal of Biogeography, 16503-540, 1989.
42
Birks isochrones
H. J. B. Birks. Holocene isochrone maps and
patterns of tree-spreading in the British Isles.
Journal of Biogeography, 16503-540, 1989.
43
Birks isochrones
H. J. B. Birks. Holocene isochrone maps and
patterns of tree-spreading in the British Isles.
Journal of Biogeography, 16503-540, 1989.
44
Birks isochrones
H. J. B. Birks. Holocene isochrone maps and
patterns of tree-spreading in the British Isles.
Journal of Biogeography, 16503-540, 1989.
45
Birks isochrones
H. J. B. Birks. Holocene isochrone maps and
patterns of tree-spreading in the British Isles.
Journal of Biogeography, 16503-540, 1989.
46
Birks isochrones
H. J. B. Birks. Holocene isochrone maps and
patterns of tree-spreading in the British Isles.
Journal of Biogeography, 16503-540, 1989.
47
Birks isochrones
H. J. B. Birks. Holocene isochrone maps and
patterns of tree-spreading in the British Isles.
Journal of Biogeography, 16503-540, 1989.
48
Birks isochrones
H. J. B. Birks. Holocene isochrone maps and
patterns of tree-spreading in the British Isles.
Journal of Biogeography, 16503-540, 1989.
49
Giesecke Bennett isochrones
Spruce (Picea) in Fennoscandia
T. Giesecke and K. D. Bennett. The Holocene
spread of Picea abies (L.) Karst. in Fennoscandia
and adjacent areas. Journal of Biogeography,
3115231548, 2004.
50
Pollen based maps of North America
Pollen viewer http//www.geo.brown.edu/georesearc
h/esh/QE/Research/VegDynam/VegAnima/Viewer32/WebVi
ewer.html
51
Elton on population increase
During the expansion in numbers from a minimum,
almost every animal survives, or at any rate a
very high proportion of them do so, and an
immeasurably larger number survives than when the
population remains constant. If therefore
a heritable variation were to occur in the small
nucleus of animals left at a minimum of numbers,
it would spread very quickly automatically, so
that a very large proportion of numbers of
individuals would possess it when the species had
regained its normal numbers.
Elton, C. 1927. Animal Ecology. Sidgwick
Jackson, London.
52
Rates of spread
Birks, H.J.B. 1989. Holocene isochrone maps and
patterns of tree-spreading in the British Isles.
Journal of Biogeography 16, 503-540.
53
Asarum canadense
54
Asarum dispersal distances
Cain, M.L. et al. 1998. Seed dispersal and the
Holocene migration of woodland herbs. Ecological
Monographs 68, 325-347.
55
Asarum displacement after 16000 yrs
1000 km
1000 m
Cain, M.L. et al. 1998. Seed dispersal and the
Holocene migration of woodland herbs. Ecological
Monographs 68, 325-347.
56
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Conclusions
Plant distributions shift substantially,
individualistically, in response to environmental
change
Molecular techniques yield ancestries and may
help with distribution change
Neither classical nor modern molecular techniques
yield mechanisms of spread
Present is the key to the past applies, but
some relevant processes may be too slow to be
readily visible within the present, and may be
elusive
Evolutionary implications?
58
Individualistic communities
59
Introduction
Historical thinking about communities
Evidence from the palaeorecord
60
Darwin's view on communities over time
The arctic forms, during their long southern
migration and re-migration northward, will have
been exposed to nearly the same climate, and, as
is especially to be noticed, they will have kept
in a body together consequently their mutual
relations will not have been much disturbed, and,
in accordance with the principles inculcated in
this volume, they will not have been liable to
much modification
Darwin, C. 1859. On the Origin of Species by
means of natural selection. John Murray, London.
61
Clementsian ecology
F.E. Clements American ecologist, working in
grasslands of C USA at the beginning of the 20th
centuryVegetation cover does not represent a
permanent condition but gradually changes over
time, and can be understood as a sequence of
stages resembling the development of an
individual organism.After a complete or partial
disturbance, vegetation grows back towards a
mature "climax state," which describes the
vegetation best suited to the local conditions.
J. E. Weaver and F. E. Clements. Plant Ecology.
McGraw-Hill, New York, 1929.
62
Gleasonian ecology
H.A Gleason American botanist, ecologist and
taxonomist in the middle of the 20th centuryHe
developed the "individualistic concept of
ecology", in which "the phenomena of vegetation
depend completely upon the phenomena of the
individual" species.Ideas were in stark
contrast to Clements', and largely ignored until
the second half of the 20th century
H. A. Gleason. The individualistic concept of the
plant association. Bulletin of the Torrey
Botanical Club, 537-26, 1926.
63
Davis isochrones
Spread at different directions, different rates,
and different times individualistic behaviour
M. B. Davis. Quaternary history of deciduous
forests of eastern North America and Europe.
Annals of the Missouri Botanical Garden,
70550-563, 1983.
64
Locally variable behaviour
W.G. Spaulding, E.B. Leopold, and T.R. van
Devender. Late Wisconsin paleoecology of the
American southwest. In S.C. Porter, editor,
Late-Quaternary Environments of the United
States. Vol 1. The Late Pleistocene, pages
259-293. Longman, London, 1983.
65
Non-analogue communities Joe Lake, Alaska
P. M. Anderson, P. J. Bartlein, and L. B.
Brubaker. Late Quaternary history of tundra
vegetation in northwestern Alaska. Quaternary
Research, 41306-315, 1994.
66
Non-analogue communities Joe Lake, Alaska
10ka
25ka
gt40ka
P. M. Anderson, P. J. Bartlein, and L. B.
Brubaker. Late Quaternary history of tundra
vegetation in northwestern Alaska. Quaternary
Research, 41306-315, 1994.
67
Non-analogue communities Joe Lake
Dissimilarity approach Compare all levels from
Joe Lake (0-40ka) with a dataset of 1119 samples
across the whole N American arctic, subarctic and
northern temperate forest Comparison used Squared
Chord Distance dissimilarity measure Aim is to
locate modern communities that are similar to
fossil communities at each Joe Lake level
P. M. Anderson, P. J. Bartlein, and L. B.
Brubaker. Late Quaternary history of tundra
vegetation in northwestern Alaska. Quaternary
Research, 41306-315, 1994.
68
Non-analogue communities Joe Lake
gt40ka
25-40ka
12-13ka
13-25ka
P. M. Anderson, P. J. Bartlein, and L. B.
Brubaker. Late Quaternary history of tundra
vegetation in northwestern Alaska. Quaternary
Research, 41306-315, 1994.
69
Non-analogue communities Joe Lake
9ka
10ka
5-0ka
9-5ka
P. M. Anderson, P. J. Bartlein, and L. B.
Brubaker. Late Quaternary history of tundra
vegetation in northwestern Alaska. Quaternary
Research, 41306-315, 1994.
70
Non-analogue communities Sirunki, PNG
Sirunki Lake Ipea
D. Walker and J. R. Flenley. Late Quaternary
vegetational history of the Enga Province of
upland Papua New Guinea. Philosophical
Transactions of the Royal Society of London
Series B, 286265-344, 1979.
71
Non-analogue communities Sirunki, PNG
0ka
13ka
33ka
Pollen accumulation rates 'Common' pollen types
only ...
D. Walker and J. R. Flenley. Late Quaternary
vegetational history of the Enga Province of
upland Papua New Guinea. Philosophical
Transactions of the Royal Society of London
Series B, 286265-344, 1979.
72
Non-analogue communities Sirunki, PNG
'The majority of taxa are usually associated in
groups which vary in their composition repeatedly
during a few thousand years, yet some of the taxa
occasionally behave entirely individualistically'
Pollen types as percent deviations from mean
D. Walker and J. R. Flenley. Late Quaternary
vegetational history of the Enga Province of
upland Papua New Guinea. Philosophical
Transactions of the Royal Society of London
Series B, 286265-344, 1979.
73
Vegetation mapping in E North America
J. T. Overpeck, R. S. Webb, and T. Webb, III.
Mapping eastern North American vegetation change
of the past 18 ka No-analogs and the future.
Geology, 201071-1074, 1992.
74
Vegetation mapping in Europe
B. Huntley. Dissimilarity mapping between fossil
and contemporary pollen spectra in Europe for the
past 13,000 years. Quaternary Research,
33360-376, 1990.
75
Intermingled fauna Eurasian beetles
LGM Isleworth, England
Onthophagus gibbulus (Scarabaeidae)
Opetiopalpus scutellaris (Cleridae)
Cathormiocerus validiscapus (Curculionidae)
Calosoma reticulatum (Carabidae)
Cathormiocerus curviscapus (Curculionidae)
Aphodius bonvouloiri (Scarabaeidae)
K. D. Bennett. Evolution and Ecology the Pace of
Life. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1997.
76
Intermingled fauna N American beetles
Opisthius richardsoni (Carabidae)
Pterostichus punctatissimus (Carabidae)
Helophorus arcticus (Hydrophilidae)
Cymindis unicolor (Carabidae)
Carphoborus andersoni (Scolytidae)
LGM Norwood, Minnesota
K. D. Bennett. Evolution and Ecology the Pace of
Life. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1997.
77
Intermingled fauna European mollusca
LGM Folkestone, England
Discus ruderatus (Endodontidae)
Lauria cylindracea (Pupillidae)
K. D. Bennett. Evolution and Ecology the Pace of
Life. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1997.
78
Intermingled fauna N American vertebrates
Clemmys insculpta (wood turtle)
LGM Ladds, Georgia
Bufo terrestris (southern toad)
K. D. Bennett. Evolution and Ecology the Pace of
Life. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1997.
79
Intermingled fauna N American mammals
Dicrostonyx hudsonius (Hudson Bay collared
lemming)
Synaptomys borealis (northern bog lemming)
Dicrostonyx torquatus (collared lemming)
Tamias striatus (eastern chipmunk)
Spermophilus tridecemlineatus (13-lined ground
squirrel)
Cynomys ludovicianus (blacktail prairie dog)
Sorex fumeus (smoky shrew)
Synaptomys borealis (northern bog lemming)
Sorex cinereus (masked shrew)
Neotoma floridana (eastern woodrat)
Liomys irroratus (Mexican pocket mouse)
K. D. Bennett. Evolution and Ecology the Pace of
Life. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1997.
LGM sites where taxa co-occur
80
Intermingled fauna Eurasian and Australian
mammals
Lemmus lemmus (Norway lemming)
Dicrostonyx torquatus (collared lemming)
Apodemus sylvaticus (wood mouse)
Desmana moschata (Russian desman)
Alopex lagopus (Arctic fox)
Phascolartos cinereus (koala)
Saiga tatarica (saiga)
Dasycercus cristicauda (mulgara)
K. D. Bennett. Evolution and Ecology the Pace of
Life. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1997.
LGM sites where taxa co-occur
81
Intermingled fauna coccolithophores
1. Coccolithus pelagicus 2. Umbellosphaera
irregularis 3. Helicosphaera carteri 4.
Rhabdosphaera stylifera 5. Syracosphaera pulcha
K. D. Bennett. Evolution and Ecology the Pace of
Life. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1997.
82
Turnover
W. Eide, H. H. Birks, N. H. Bigelow, S. M.
Peglar, and H. J. B. Birks. Holocene forest
development along the Setesdal valley, southern
Norway, reconstructed from macrofossil and pollen
evidence. Vegetation History and Archaeobotany,
1565-85, 2006.
83
Turnover
H. J. B. Birks. Estimating the amount of
compositional change in late-Quaternary
pollen-stratigraphical data. Vegetation History
and Archaeobotany, 16197-202, 2007.
84
Turnover
H. J. B. Birks. Estimating the amount of
compositional change in late-Quaternary
pollen-stratigraphical data. Vegetation History
and Archaeobotany, 16197-202, 2007.
85
Conclusions
Communities have no long persistence in
time Past communities may have no analogue
today The palaeorecord contains information
about how communities have formed and developed