Climate Change and Sustainable Development

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Climate Change and Sustainable Development

• Pak Sum LOW
• Regional Adviser
• Environment and Sustainable Development
• UNESCAP
• E-mail low_at_un.org
• A Presentation at the Subregional Workshop on
  Clean Development Mechanism,
• Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
• 13-15 April 2004

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Sustainable Development

• Means
• development in a sustainable way
• development that meets the needs of the present
  without compromising the ability of future
  generations to meet their own needs...
• The goal is to
• eradicate poverty,
• achieve the highest quality of life for
  individuals and communities in social, economic,
  political, cultural, and ecological aspects,
  within the Earths carrying capacity,
• promote social equity and personal prosperity
• .

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Agenda 21 Issueshttp//www.un.org/esa/sustdev/sdi
ssues/sdissues.htm

• Integrated decision-making
• International law
• International cooperation for an enabling
  environment
• Institutional arrangements
• Land management
• Major groups
• Mountains
• Oceans and seas
• Poverty
• Science
• Small islands
• Sustainable tourism
• Technology
• Toxic chemicals
• Trade and environment
• Transport
• Waste (hazardous)
• Waste (radioactive)
• Waste (solid)

• Agriculture
• Atmosphere
• Biodiversity
• Biotechnology
• Capacity-building
• Consumption and production patterns
• Demographics
• Desertification and drought
• Education and awareness
• Energy
• Finance
• Forests
• Freshwater
• Health
• Human settlements
• Indicators
• Industry
• Information for decision-making and participation

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Sustainable Development Indicators

• Agenda 21 calls on countries, organizations and
  non-governmental organizations to develop and use
  indicators of sustainable development to assess
  progress
• Beyond the commonly used economic indicators of
  well-being, however, social, environmental and
  institutional indicators have to be taken into
  account as well to arrive at a broader, more
  complete picture of societal development.

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   CSD Theme Indicator Framework
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SD Indicators in New Zealand

• Air (PM10, CO, NO2, SO2, O3)
• Fresh water
• Dissolved oxygen Ammonia Temperature Clarity
  population with good water supply, etc
• Land
• Ozone
• Climate change
• Liquid waste
• Solid waste
• Hazardous waste
• Contaminated sites
• Biodiversity
• Indigenous biodiversity

• Marine environment
• Physical/chemical
• Habitats and communities
• Species
• Human health and values
• Fish stocks
• Fishing impacts
• Transport
• Energy
• Pests, weeds and diseases

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• Climate change is one of the greatest challenges
  the world will have to face in the 21st century.
• Kofi Annan, UN Secretary-General (Remarks on EU
  ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, New York, 31
  May 2002)

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• Why climate change is a sustainable development
  issue?

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• There are two aspects relating to climate change
  that have profound implications for sustainable
  development

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• 1. Emission of greenhouse gases, such as carbon
  dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, have warmed
  the lower atmosphere and caused global warming,
  which induces climate change.

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GREENHOUSE GASES EMISSION

• Human activities have resulted in the emission of
  greenhouse gases (GHG), such as carbon dioxide
  (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxides (N2O),
  CFCs, HCFCs, PFCs, and SF6 to the atmosphere.
  These gases trap heat in the lower atmosphere and
  cause global warming.

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SPM 3
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GLOBAL WARMING

• Studies show that since 1860, the Earth has
  warmed 0.6 0.2oC, with the last two decades
  being the warmest of the last century.
• At least in the Northern Hemisphere, the 20th
  Century was the warmest in the last 1000 years.
• Climate models project that the Earth will warm
  1.4 to 5.8oC between 1990 and 2100.

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Evidence for Global Warming

• Melting and shrinking of mountain glaciers,
  Arctic and Antarctic ice shelves
• The bird migration patterns are changing and
  birds are laying their eggs earlier.
• The growing season in the Northern Hemisphere has
  lengthened by about 1-4 days per decade during
  the last 40 years.
• There has been a pole-ward and upward migration
  of plants, insects and animals.
• (e.g. Two-thirds of the 35 species of European
  butterflies had shifted northward by 22 to 150
  miles)
• Coral bleaching due to warmer oceans temperature.
• In California tidal zone, sea creatures are
  migrating northward in reaction to rising ocean
  temperatures.

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Arctic and Antarctic ice shelves are shrinking
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The Larsen B ice shelf has shattered on 7 March
2002

• The Larsen B ice shelf, a large Antarctic ice
  mass, has shattered and separated from the
  continent as seen in this March 7th satellite
  image. The ice shelf has existed since the last
  Ice Age 12,000 years ago. The blue area is the
  shelf's shattered ice. The lost surface area
  measured 1,040 square miles, which would dwarf
  Rhode Island. The collapse released 720 billion
  tons of ice. (AP/NASA, NSIDC, Univ. of Colorado,
  Ted Scambos)

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Shrinking of Mountain Glaciers

• The retreat of most glaciers is projected to
  accelerate, and many small glaciers may
  disappear.
• Glaciers will provide extra runoff as ice melts.
• For example, it has been estimated that glacier
  melt in Central Asia has decreased by 804 km3
  over 1959-1992, representing a 15 increase in
  glacier runoff (IPCC, 1996).
• Tajikistan, with 1085 glaciers, accounts for 60
  of the ice of Central Asia)

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Going, going, gone In 1990, this Swiss glacier
reached the sign.
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• 2. The adverse impacts of climate change would
  have profound implications for sustainable
  development

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Melting glaciers and sea water thermal expansion
could contribute to sea-level rise

• According to IPCC (2001), sea level has risen
  10-20 cm since 1900, and it is projected to
  increase 8-88 cm between 1990 and 2100, caused
  primarily by thermal expansion and melting of
  glaciers.
• Implications for small island developing states
  (SIDS) and low-lying coastal areas (e.g.,
  Marshall Islands projected 80 land loss to 1-m
  sea-level rise)
• FOR SIDS, it is not only a matter of sustainable
  development, but also a matter of survival!

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Sea Levels have risen
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Increased risk of floods, potentially displacing
tens of millions of people, due to sea-level rise
and heavy rainfall events, especially in small
island states and low-lying deltaic areas.
Bangladesh is projected to lose about 17 of its
land area with a sea level rise of one meter -
very difficult to adapt due to lack of adaptive
capacity
projected
present
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Seasonal and latitudinal shifts in precipitation

• Implications for water resources
• Implications for drought

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Precipitation patterns have changed
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• Already one person in six lives without regular
  access to safe drinking water over twice that
  number2.4 billionlack access to adequate
  sanitation.
• Yet over the next two decades, our use of fresh
  water is estimated to increase by about 40.
• The average supply of fresh water per person
  across the planet is predicted to plunge by a
  third over the next 20 years. And that 7 billion
  people across 60 countries will face water
  shortages within 50 years.
• The impact will be worst for developing nations
  where clean water is already in critically short
  supply.

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• Water conflicts may lead to wars

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