Title: Nuclear Power
1Nuclear Power An Energy Analysis
http//nuclearinfo.net
- Martin Sevior
- Associate Professor
- School of Physics
- University of Melbourne
2Energy and Entropy
- 2nd Law of Thermodynamics
- Entropy tends to increase
- Sharing of energy amongst all possible states
- Life is in a very low state of entropy
- To exist it must create large amounts of entropy
away from itself. - Life requires large amounts of Energy.
3Life and energy
- Life takes energy from the sun
4Energy and civilization
- Our Civilization is based on cheap energy and
machines - Previous civilizations utilized humans and
animals. (Still the case for large parts of the
world.) - Given sufficient quantities of energy our
civilization can generate the products it needs.
(Food, Metals, Plastics, Water)
5Energy in Australia
- Australias Electricity needs are currently
supplied by 44 GigaWatts of power stations. - This is forecast to grow by over 2 per year to
around 60 GigaWatts by 2020 - On average 1.5 GigaWatts increase each year
- Equivalent to Loy-Yang Power Station
6Energy in the World
- China (pop 1.4 Billion) growing at 10 per year.
- India (pop 1 Billion) growing at 6 per year.
- Both aspire to Western standards of living
- China likely to achieve current Australian
standard in 2040s - Effect will be to triple world energy
consumption. - Only a large scale trade embargo will prevent
them from effectively competing with the west.
7World Energy Growth.
Energy Growth by region
Projections are business as usual
Source U.S. Energy Information Administration.
8How long can we keep using Oil?
- The rate of Oil usage is substantially greater
than the rate of new Oil discoveries - Developing Nations have become competitors for Oil
9Global Climate Change
- The Earths atmosphere acts as a Greenhouse.
Traps heat that would otherwise be radiated to
space. - Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is the 2nd largest
contributor (and biggest driver) - Carbon Dioxide is also the fundamental byproduct
of Fossil Fuel consumption - Large scale use of Fossil Fuels has substantially
increased CO2 concentration
10CO2 increase in the Atmosphere
11Global Climate Change
Predicted world temperature changes
Past world temperature changes
The different curves are different predictions
based on different physical assumptions and
future CO2 emissions
The current CO2 concentration is unprecedented
over half a million years
12Predictions for CO2 outputs
The developing world will likely produce more CO2
emissions than the West before 2020
Only a large scale trade embargo on China and
India and the rest of the developing world will
prevent competition and growth
13The transition.
- Having access to large amounts of cheap energy is
vital for our civilization. - Over the next human generation we will need to
manage a transition from our Fossil-Fuel based
energy sources - The combination of resource depletion and Climate
Change mitigation forces this. - Getting this right is vital for the world we
leave our children. - I believe that this is one of the great issues
facing my generation.
14Nuclear Power
- Nuclear Power has been demonstrated to work at
large scale. - France (80 Nuke, 20 Hydro) and Sweden (50
Nuke, 50 Hydro) have the lowest per capita
greenhouse emissions of large countries in the
OECD - Australia, with its reliance on Coal-powered
electricity, has the highest
15Nuclear Energy
- About 6 Billion years ago a supernova exploded in
this region of space. - About 1 solar mass of hydrogen was converted to
Helium in about 1 second - All the elements heavier than Lithium were
created making life possible in the solar system - A tiny fraction of the energy was used to create
heavy elements like Uranium and Thorium.
16Nuclear Energy
- Chemical reactions release a few electron-volts
of energy per reaction.
Nuclear Fission releases 240 Million electron
volts per reaction
A neutron is captured by 233U,235U or 239Pu. The
nucleus breaks apart and releases 2-3 more
neutrons. These in turn can induce further
fissions.
17Nuclear energy
- The energy release from a single fission reaction
is about one-tenth that of an anti-matter
annihilation. - There is as much energy in one gram of Uranium as
3 tonnes of coal. - The reaction produces no CO2
- So how much Uranium is present on Earth?
18Uranium Abundance.
- The Earths crust is estimated to contain 40
trillion tonnes of Uranium and 3 times as much
Thorium. - We have mined less than a ten millionth of this.
- (We have extracted about half of all conventional
Oil) - If burnt in a 4th Generation reactor provides 6
Billion years of energy. - If burned in a current reactor enough for 24
Million years. - But most is inaccessible. How much is really
available?
19How long could Nuclear Power last?
- How much energy does it take to build a Nuclear
Power plant? - How much energy does it take to create Uranium
fuel? - How much energy does a Nuclear Power plant
produce over its lifetime? - This should be greater than the energy cost.
20The Nuclear Fuel cycle.
21Vattenfall
- The Swedish Energy utility operates Nuclear,
Hydro, Wind, BioMass, Solar and Fossil Fuel
facilities. - Vattenfall have performed LifeCycle Analyses for
these. - These are described in Environment Product
Descriptions EPD. - Useful Worlds Best Practice reference
22Environmental Product Description
- The overall goals of an EPD is, "through
communication of verifiable and accurate
information, that is not misleading, on
environmental aspects of products and services,
to encourage the demand for and supply of those
products and services that cause less stress on
the environment, thereby stimulating the
potential for market-driven continuous
environmental improvement". - Independently Audited
23Vattenfalls EPD for Nuclear Power
- Normalized for 1 GW Nuclear Power Plant. (NPP)
operating for 40 years - Energy cost of Constructing the NPP
- Energy cost of Mining and Milling U
- Energy cost of enriching
- Energy cost of dismantling the NPP
- Energy cost of disposing the waste
- Units PetaJoules (PJ) 1015 Joules.
- 1 GigaWatt year 31.5 PJ
24System Boundaries
- In any Life Cycle Analysis there are boundaries.
25NPP Construction
- Typical Construction tree.
Total energy cost for Construction and
Decommissioning NPP 4 PJ
26Mining and Milling
- Vattenfall utilize Uranium from Olympic Dam,
Rossing and Navoi, Uzbekistan - Over 40-year life of NPP total energy cost of
mining the Uranium. - 5.5 PJ
27Conversion and Enrichment
- The Yellow Cake from the mines must be
converted to UF6 , Neglecting U usage - 2 PJ
- Then enriched to 3 235U. Vattenfall uses a
mixture of Gaseous Diffusion and Centrifuge - Neglecting U used for enrichment this becomes
- 0.5 PJ
28Operations
- Need to fabricate the Fuel rods
- 1.2 PJ
- Energy used to operate the plant and consumed in
ongoing Maintenance - 1.1 PJ
29Waste Disposal
- Sweden has a mature multibarrier waste disposal
plan.
Energy cost for 100,000 year isolation 4.3 PJ
30Total Energy Cost
- Total Energy cost over 40 years (neglecting
additional U) 18.6 PJ - Energy Generated (85 efficiency) 1054 PJ
- Energy Gain of 56
- Repaid in 8 months of operation.
31CO2 emissions from Nuclear
- Vattenfall EPD calculations
32Vattenfall CO2 emissions from other sources
33Storm van Leeuwen and Smith
- This website has been widely quoted
- They find the Energy cost of building a NPP to be
82 PJ - Assume Decommission cost to be 82 PJ
- Assume Waste disposal cost to be 82 PJ
- Predict Mining and Milling cost to be
Y Yield C U3O8
GigaJoules per Tonne
or
34Additional Assumptions
- No new rich deposits of Uranium will be
discovered. - An extrapolation of their formula implies no net
energy gain at Ore concentrations of 0.02 and
below.(Rossing works at 0.03) - They conclude we will rapidly deplete the
exploitable Uranium reserves with thermal reactors
35Testing Storm and Smith
- How well do Storm and Smith reproduce currently
operating Uranium mines? - Ranger Ore 0.25
- Predict 5.1 PJ/year, Report 0.8 PJ/year
- Olympic Dam Ore 0.05
- Predict 60 PJ/year, Report 5 PJ/year
- Rossing Ore 0.035
- Predict 69 PJ/year, Report 1 PJ/year
- These 3 mines provide 35 of current world
production
36Cross Checks
- 60 PJ is two Giga-Watt years of electricity
- Cost of supplying this via Diesel is over 1
Billion dollars - At 40 Kg U Rossing only earns 100 Million per
year - Entire energy consumption of Namibia is only 50 PJ
37Consequences
- Even with current mining technology were far
from exhausting our recoverable Uranium. - Weve mined less than 1 ten millionth of all the
Uranium in the Earths crust. - Rossing provides 465 PJ of energy per year at an
energy cost of 1 PJ - What can we estimate for the future?
38Uranium Abundance
Current discovered, proven reserves amount to 3
Million tonnes, sufficient for 50 years at
present consumption rates
Rossing mine in Namibia has a Uranium abundance
of 350 ppm and provides an energy gain of 500
Extrapolating to 10 ppm provides an energy gain
of 14
4th Generation reactor (50 times more efficient
Uranium usage) provides an energy gain of 100 at
2 ppm
At least 8,000 times more Uranium can be usefully
mined using current reactors. 32,000 times more
with 4th Generation. (96 million years worth.)
39Nuclear Power is sustainable
- The current Uranium price is nowhere near high
enough to sustain the energy costs predicted by
Storm and Smith - There will be no lack of Uranium for thousands of
years. - The motivation for 4th generation reactors is
really to reduce the amount of waste.