1'1' A LongRun View of the World Economic History

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1.1. A Long-Run View of the World Economic History
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Worlds Population, 400 BC-2000 BC
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Estimates on GDP per Head, 1-2001 (in 1990
international Geary-khamis dollars)
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(No Transcript)
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Thomas Robert Malthus, 1766-1834.
An Essay on the Principle of Population, as it
affects the Future Improvement of Society, with
Remarks on the Speculations of Mr Godwin, M.
Condorcet and Other Writers, 1798
                                  
                       
In this famous work, Malthus posited his
hypothesis that (unchecked) population growth
always exceeds the growth of means of
subsistence. Actual (checked) population growth
is kept in line with food supply growth by
"positive checks" (starvation, disease and the
like, elevating the death rate) and "preventive
checks" (i.e. postponement of marriage, etc. that
keep down the birthrate), both of which are
characterized by "misery and vice". Malthus's
hypothesis implied that actual population always
has a tendency to push above the food supply.
Because of this tendency, any attempt to
ameliorate the condition of the lower classes by
increasing their incomes or improving
agricultural productivity would be fruitless, as
the extra means of subsistence would be
completely absorbed by an induced boost in
population. As long as this tendency remains,
Malthus argued, the "perfectibility" of society
will always be out of reach.
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Thomas Malthus

• Thomas Malthus (17661834) was an English
  clergyman whose theory on population, contained
  in An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798,
  and later revisions), has had a considerable
  impact on thinking about the limits of population
  growth. Malthus believed that unchecked
  population grows geometrically, a rate that
  surpasses the ability of the means of subsistence
  (e.g., food) to support it. To avoid
  overpopulation, two types of checks on population
  exist preventive checks and positive checks.
  Preventive checks result from human actions that
  lower the birthrate for Malthus, this largely
  meant the postponement of marriage to late ages.
  Positive checks include anything that operates to
  increase the death rate (e.g., war, famine,
  epidemics). While the operation of any of these
  checks reduces the rate of population growth,
  Malthus did not think that the preventive checks
  were powerful enough to prevent the population
  from growing faster than the means of
  subsistence. Sooner or later, the more drastic
  positive checks would come into play. Thus,
  humans were bound to over-reproduce and, in the
  end, human numbers would be reduced by increased
  deaths.

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The Great Divergence. The evolution of GDP per
head during the last two thousand (in 1990
dollars)
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The Great Divergence. The evolution of GDP per
head during the last two thousand (in 1990
dollars)
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The Great Divergence. The evolution of GDP per
head during the last two thousand (in 1990
dollars)