Global environmental problems: Climate change

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Global environmental problems Climate change

• Lecture 15

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Introduction

• Local versus global environmental problems
• Migration has been one of the ways humans have
  reacted to local environmental destruction
• At the global/planetary level, this option is not
  available there is no escape if we make the
  planet inhabitable.

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Dealing with global environmental problems is
crucial and difficult

• Crucial because there is no escape if we blow it
• Difficult because
• of political realities
• of economic realities
• a global international perspective needed
• global institutions with the necessary authority
  and responsibility is a requirement.

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Global climate change

• The CO2 content of the earths atmosphere has
  increased by about 30 since 1750
• In the last 3 decades, it has increased by 8
• Note CO2 is not the only source of gases that
  affect climate change (figure below).

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Effect on earths climate

• Average surface temperature of earth has risen
  approximately 0.6oC over the 20th Century
• Climate change models forecast a rise in earths
  temperature over the 21st Century by anywhere
  from 1.5 - 6oC
• Some models predict an increase in climate
  variability in the future due to an increase in
  CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.

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Human and ecosystem impacts (1)

• Will bring about a general rise in sea level
  because
• Of the expansion of sea water
• The melting of glaciers
• The eventual breaking up of polar ice sheets.
• A sea level rise would have devastating impacts
  in certain societies, e.g., those low-lying
  island nations.

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Human and ecosystem impacts (2)

• The drowning of coastal wetlands would destroy
  many fisheries
• Ecosystem diversity may decline
• Malaria and other high temperature diseases may
  become endemic in more areas of the world
• Impacts on humans through the effects of changed
  climate on agriculture and forestry
• Developing countries may be less able to adapt
  than the developed.

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Technical responses to the greenhouse effect (1)

• Total production of GHGs populationGDP per
  populationenergy per GDPGHG per energy
• Notes
• Combustion of fossil fuels contribute most to
  GHGs
• Ceteris paribus, larger populations will use more
  energy and therefore emit larger amounts of GHGs
  So will larger consumption per caput
• Increases in GDP are normally associated with
  economic growth
• Can population, consumption GDP per capita be
  used to reduce GHG emissions?

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Technical responses to the greenhouse effect (2)

• The 3rd term denotes energy efficiency, i.e., the
  amount of energy used per of output
• The last term is GHGs produced per unit of energy
  used switching to less GHG-intensive fuels.

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Policy Responses The Kyoto Protocol (1)

• The Kyoto Protocol is a Framework Agreement on
  climate change
• The Protocol was signed by many of the worlds
  countries in Dec. 1997
• Each signatory set its own target for reductions
  in GHGs to be met by 2008-2012
• Protocol not binding on countries there is no
  way to enforce these targets.

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Policy Responses The Kyoto Protocol (2)

• Canada committed to reducing its emissions by 6
  from 1990 level by 2008-2012
• Ratified by Parliament
• USA made a commitment of 5 reduction
• Not ratified by the USA
• Many European countries have ratified the
  Protocol.

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How successful is the Kyoto Protocol

• GHG emissions around the world and in Canada
  still increasing
• Therefore not successful
• See Table 20-5.

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Why is the Protocol not successful? (1)

• Complex rules are needed for this to work
• Whether to give a country credit for its carbon
  sinks in a TDP system
• What qualifies as a carbon sink?
• What alternative energy developments could count
  as credits?
• How to finance adaptation mitigation measures
  for developing countries
• What compliance rules should apply?
• What operating rules procedures for a TDP
  system should be in place?

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Why is the Protocol not that successful? (2)

• Some countries have not signed the protocol
• For those who signed, there is no method by which
  they can be forced to meet their targets
• Countries ask why there should reduce their
  emissions if China USA, the leading emitters,
  will not
• Free rider problems abound
• Uncertainty makes it politically easy for
  politicians not to do something
• Easier to measure costs than benefits.

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What is a game?

• any activity involving 2 or more indivs, each
  of whom recognizes that the outcome for
  him/herself depends not only on his/her own
  actions but also those of others
• a mathematical tool for analyzing strategic
  interaction between and among indivs who may be
  persons, firms, stakeholders, nations, etc.

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Suppose we have the following situations

• (i) a few firms dominate a market, or
• (ii) a few group of individuals have fishing
  rights to a stock of fish, or
• (iii) countries have to make an agreement on
  environmental policy.
• Each individual then has to consider the
  others reactions expectations with respect to
  their own decision.

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Key assumption

• each decision maker is rational in the sense
  that
• He/she is aware of his alternatives
• forms expectations about any unknowns
• have clear preferences and
• chooses her actions deliberately after some
  process of optimization.

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Types of games

• non-cooperative and
• cooperative games.

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A non-cooperative game

• No lines of communication
• No possibility for making binding contracts
• Each player takes the actions of the other as
  given, and chooses his own strategies to max. own
  benefits
• Existence of a solution (Nash)
• Usually undesirable outcomes emerge.

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A cooperative game

• Good communication gives players chance to weigh
  possibility for cooperation
• Incentive to cooperative all may gain
• Cooperative with without side payments
• Existence of solutions Two requirements
• Pareto optimality
• The individual rationality constraint.

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Why G.T. may help in dealing with environmental
problems

• Environmental resources as common pool resources
• Multi-agent/multi-stakeholder situation
• Ea. stakeholder has an interest in the use of
  resource, which it wants to enhance/max.
• Interest of stakeholders often conflicting
• Noncooperation tempting but wasteful
• Cooperation possible thru communication.

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Why international agreements often fail Applying
game theory

• Lets assume two countries are trying to reach an
  agreement about whether to ratify the Kyoto
  Protocol
• Each country can either
• Emit at current level (high emissions)
• Reduce current emissions by 5 (low emissions).

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How to get country B to lower its emissions

• Employ moral suasion
• Allow country B to adopt different targets
• Offer financial incentives or some other side
  payments to B
• Threaten to introduce sanctions
• Try technology transfer.