Sin ttulo de diapositiva

1
GLOBAL CHANGE AND VULNERABILITY OF THE COASTAL
ZONES IN CUBA
2
(No Transcript)
3
GEOGRAPHICAL LOCALIZATION
Area 110 861 km2 4 000 keys 6 000 km of
coasts
4
(No Transcript)
5
COASTAL ZONE DELIMITATION
6
(No Transcript)
7
(No Transcript)
8
SCENARIOS TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
FOR CUBA
9
SCENARIOS CLIMATE CHANGE (CO2 Duplication)

• AN INCREASE OF TEMPERATURE FOR THE YEAR 2100
  WILL BE 1,6 - 2,5 0C
• CHANGES ON PRECIPITATIONS RATES OF 10 - 15
• SIMILAR ACTIVITY OF TROPYCAL CYCLONE AS NOWADAYS
• AN INCREASING NUMBER OF COLD FRONTS DUE TO OF
  ENSO EVENT
• EQUAL NUMBER OF SOUTHERN WINDS
• INCREASE OF DROUGHT PERIODS MAINLY IN THE
  EASTERN REGION

10
SEA - LEVEL RISE IN CUBA
AVERAGE SEA- LEVEL RISE DURING THE LAST THREE
DECADES 2.9 mm/year
Projection

sensibility low
high year 2050 8 cm
44cm year 2100 20cm
95cm
11
(No Transcript)
12
(No Transcript)
13
COASTAL SETTLEMENTS
14
HUMAN SETTLEMENTS SYSTEM IN CUBA
HUMAN SETTLEMENTS SYSTEM IN CUBA IS WELL
STRUCTURED AND STUDIED, WITH 11.04 MILLION
INHABITANTS, PROJECTIONS OF THE POPULATION
INDICATE THAT ITS GROWTH TENDS TO DECREASE MAINLY
DUE TO THE DESCENT OF FECUNDITY
6834 TOTAL SETTLEMENTS 573 URBANS AND 6221
RURALS 1 MILLION INHABITANTS LIVE IN DISPERSED
WAY
15
DISPERSE POPULATION (0,003 of total), 2974
INHABIT
16
COASTAL SETTLEMENTS
244 settlements / 1 400 000 inhabit. / 330 000
dwellings
17
SEA LEVEL RISE IN COASTAL ZONES
18
(No Transcript)
19
NOWADAYS THERE ARE 53 COASTAL SETTLEMENTS
REPORTING FLOODS FOR SEA - LEVEL RISE, DUE TO
TROPICAL CYCLONES SURGE MAINLY
20
VULNERABILITY FACTORS
21
STUDY CASE Santa Cruz del Sur
22
FLOOD RISK MAP. SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR
THE SURGE WHICH TOOK PLACE IN 1932, WAS OF 7
METERS HIGH. NOWADAY ITS PROBABILITY IS 1
TIME EVERY 333 YEARS
23
VULNERABLE ELEMENTS POPULATION 17125 INHABIT,
(9 BELOW 0,5 M) DWELLINGS 4312 (GOOD AND
REGULAR TECHNICAL STATE), EMPLOYMENTS 4123
24
(No Transcript)
25
(No Transcript)
26
DROUGHT IN COASTAL ZONE
27
7 DRY 9 SUBHUMID ENVIRONMENT
Subzonas
28
MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION MEASURES
29
CONSIDERATE FACTORS FOR THE MITIGATION AND
ADAPTATION MEASURED

• Prospective impact by climate change and extreme
  events
• Commitments territorial precedent
• Sense of ownership of coastal population to
  area of residence
• Potentialities for change in land use
• Cost of the measures proposals

30
(No Transcript)
31
PHYSICAL PLANNING ACTIVITY

• RECTOR OF TERRITORIAL AND URBANS PLANNING TO
  DIFFERENT LEVELS AND TEMPORARY HORIZONTS
• COORDINATES THE INVESTMENTS
• LOCALIZATION
• INTEGRATES SECTORIAL AND TERRITORIAL POLICIES

32
COASTAL SETTLEMENTS PRIORITIES
44 OF TOTAL
107
52 REPORT FLOODS
URBAN 43
RURAL 64
COASTAL POPULATION PRIORITIES
1 174 738 INHAB
83 OF TOTAL
50 000 BELOW 1 METER
33

• 
  

34
(No Transcript)
35
TERRACES 1 METE R AND TWO LEVELS
TWO LEVEL
FLOOD MARK
BARBACOAS (LOFTS)
36
(5 settlements)

• SURGE EFFECT
• tons of rocks over the settlement
• 25 destroyed dwellings

37
WETLAND AREA
38
(No Transcript)
39
VULNERABILITY OF HAVANA CITY

• AREA AFFECTED 52 HA
• INFLUENCE AREA 183 HA
• AFFECTED POPULATION 45,800 INHABIT
• DWELLINGS 12,041

40
(No Transcript)
41
(No Transcript)
42
(No Transcript)
43

• Carlos Rodríguez Otero
• Ada Luisa Pérez Hernández,
• Instituto de Planificación Física
• La Habana, Cuba
• Email ipf ceniai.inf.cu
• Isidro Salas García
• Instituto de Meteorología
• La Habana, Cuba
• Email meteoro ceniai.inf.cu