Climate change and the expected impact in water resources in Albania

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Climate change and the expected impact in water
resources in Albania
BALWOIS Conference Water Observation and
Information System for Decision Support, Ohrid,
25-29 May 2004

• Eglantina Demiraj Bruci, Liri Muçaj, Mirela Bicja
• Hydrometeorological Institute
• Albania

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CC, expected impact

• Preparing of climate change scenarios.
• Evaluation of impact of climate change on the
  mean annual and seasonal river runoff

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Climate changes

• MAGICC/SCENGEN v. 2.4 (CRU/UEA)
• MAGICC
• mid- range IS92a
• (reference)
• SRESA1, SRESA2,
• SRESB1 and SRESB2
• (policy scenarios)

Climate sensitivity by 2050 and 2100
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Climate scenarios
GCMs HadCM2, UKTR, ECHAM4, CSIRO-TR, UIUC-EQ,
GFDLLO
To develop the climate scenarios, the change
fields scaled in SCENGEN by the global-mean
temperature change deriving from MAGICC, are
used.

• temperature and precipitation changes - 2025,
  2050 and 2100 - interpolated from 5 5
  to 0.5 0.5 resolution
• composite pattern of future climate change
• ( GCM experiments are averaged ).

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Expected climate changes
warm, little-dry area
Annual average mean temperature and precipitation
changes (SRESA1, SRESB1)
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Expected climate changes
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Expected climate changes
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Evaluation of impact on the annual and seasonal
river runoff

• mean annual runoff
• first model
• R a bP cEPI
• second model

• seasonal scenarios
• Calibration of the coefficients
• Simulation of the mean seasonal runoff
• Evaluation of the average differences (in
  percentage) between the expected runoff for 18
  profiles and the respective values from the
  reference period (1961-1990).

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Impact of CC on the annual river runoff

• both models forecast decrease in long-term mean
  annual runoff
• decrease in precipitation and increase in
  temperature lead to runoff decrease.

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Impact of CC on the seasonal river runoff
average expected changes in mean runoff by
2025, 2050, 2100
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Vulnerability to runoff changes

• Under reduced surface flow and increased
  evaporation, the storage of reservoirs will
  decrease, which will effect the energy production
  by hydropower stations.
• Because of the stream flows reduction, the
  wetlands (western part of Albania) would
  experience both increased demands for water and
  reduced supply of water, which would decrease
  wetland area.
• Reduction of flow in rivers may put increasing
  pressure on waste treatment processes, leading to
  increased water recycling and decline in
  industrial water use.
• Increase of the extreme events may mean an
  underdesigned reservoir or spillway with
  potential flood risk.
• Other consequences of expected CC include not
  only changes in total water amount and levels,
  but also erosion of riverbeds, and modification
  of turbidity and sediment load.

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Thank you !