Future Course of Japans National Security Policy in the Face of Rising China

1
Future Course of Japans National Security
Policyin the Face of Rising China

• Thursday, May 29, 2008
• 330 - 500 P.M.
• Tadahiro Yashima, Visiting Fellow
• The Henry L. Stimson Center

2
Outline
Introduction
1.US policy toward China observation
(1) Policy change of Bush administration (2)
Still remaining worries, hedge against
China (3) US policy toward China after the Bush
administration
2.Chinas military modernization/Chinas future
(1) Current state of Chinas military
modernization (2) Additional concern Chinas
domestic situations (3) Chinas future
3.Future course of Japans national security
policy
(1) Security environment surrounding Japan (2)
Other points to be considered (3) How should
Japans future national security policy look?
Conclusion
3
1. US policy toward China observation

• (1)Policy change of Bush administration

(a) Bushs presidential campaign, China is a
strategic competitor (b) The incident at
Hainan Island and September 11th (c) The
importance of Chinese market
The United States relationship with China is an
important part of our strategy to promote a
stable, peaceful, and prosperous Asia-Pacific
region There are, however, other areas in which
we have profound disagreements We will work to
narrow differences where they exist, but not
allow them to preclude cooperation where we
agree
(source) The National Security Strategy of the
United States of America, September 20, 2002
We need to urge China to become a responsible
stakeholder (source) Robert B. Zoellick,
Wither China From Membership to
Responsibility? remarks to National Committee
on U.S.-China Relations, New
York City, Sept. 21, 2005
4
(2)Still remaining worries, hedge against China
(a) Anxiety and Uncertainty (b)
Shaping the Choices of Countries at Strategic
Crossroads
many Americans worry that the Chinese dragon
will prove to be a fire-breather. There is a
cauldron of anxiety about China, Chinas
actions combined with a lack of transparency
can create risks. Uncertainties about how China
will use its power will lead the United States
and others as well to hedge relations with
China. Many countries hope China will pursue a
"Peaceful Rise," but none will bet their future
on it (source) Robert B.
Zoellick, Wither China From Membership to
Responsibility? remarks to National Committee
on
U.S.-China Relations, New York City, Sept. 21,
2005
The choices that major and emerging powers make
will affect the future strategic position and
freedom of action of the United States, its
allies and partners. The United States will
attempt to shape these choices in ways that
foster cooperation and mutual security
interests, the United States, its allies and
partners must also hedge against the possibility
that a major or emerging power could choose a
hostile path in the future, Of the major and
emerging powers, China has the greatest potential
to compete militarily with the United States

(source) Department of Defense, Quadrennial
Defense Review Report, February 6, 2006
5

• (3) US policy toward China after the Bush
  administration

(a) The necessity to maintain and
encourage the economic relations
with China is and will be high (b) The
necessity to pursue more cooperative foreign
policy is and will be also high
(than Bush administration) (c) The top
priority for US foreign policy remains the Middle
East
? US will have stronger tendency to avoid the
decisive confrontation and to intend the status
quo on the security matters in Asia. ? US will
also tend to maintain the cooperative
relationship with China as a whole, even if the
confrontation such as human rights and trade
fictions sometimes might be caused. ? As the
economic growth and the military expansion of
China will continue, the US wariness for the
Chinese rise will become stronger. ? US will have
to hedge against the future uncertainties.
6
2.Chinas military modernization

• (1)Current state of Chinas military modernization

(a) Modernization proceeds, still lack of
transparency
On March 4, 2007, Beijing announced a 17.8
percent increase in its military budget to
approximately 45 billion. Chinas published
defense budget does not include large categories
of expenditure, such as expenses for strategic
forces, foreign acquisitions, military-related
research and development, and Chinas
paramilitary forces. Accurately estimating
actual PLA military expenditures is a difficult
process due to the lack of accounting
transparency and Chinas incomplete transition
from a command economy. As a result, outside
estimates of Chinas military spending vary. The
Department of Defense estimates Chinas total
military- related spending for 2007 could be
between 97 billion and 139 billion.
(source) Office of the Secretary of Defense,
ANNUAL REPORT TO CONGRESS, Military Power of the
Peoples Republic of China
2008
7
(b) US assessment of Chinas military
modernization
China pursues a three-step development strategy
in modernizing its national defense . . . . The
first step is to lay a solid foundation by 2010,
the second is to make major progress around
2020, and the third is to basically reach the
strategic goal of building informatized armed
forces and being capable of winning informatized
wars by the mid-21st century.


Chinas National Defense in
2006 (source) Office of the Secretary of
Defense, ANNUAL REPORT TO CONGRESS, Military
Power of the Peoples
Republic of China 2008
In spite of significant progress toward fielding
a modern military, The U.S. Intelligence
Community estimates China will take until the end
of this decade or longer to produce a modern
force capable of defeating a moderate-size
adversary. China will not be able to project and
sustain small military units far beyond China
before 2015, and will not be able to project and
sustain large forces in combat operations far
from China until well into the following
decade. (source) Office of the Secretary of
Defense, ANNUAL REPORT TO CONGRESS, Military
Power of the Peoples
Republic of China 2008
8
(2)Additional concern Chinas domestic situations
Building a moderately prosperous society in all
respects is a goal for the Party and the state
to reach by 2020
(source) Hu Jintao's report at 17th Party
Congress, Report to the Seventeenth National
Congress of
the Communist Party of China on Oct. 15, 2007
China has massive internal challenges that
include an aging society, a weak social safety
net, large and growing disparities in
development, and systemic corruptionall of
which have resulted in social unease. Chinas
leaders also are faced with growing labor
unrest, a weak banking and financial system,
lingering ethnic disputes, environmental
problems almost unimaginable to Westerners, and
vulnerability to epidemic disease. Together,
these challenges have caused Chinese leaders to
focus internally, thereby putting a premium on
external stability. China seeks a stable,
peaceful international environment in which to
develop its comprehensive national
power (source) Richard L. Armitage Joseph S.
Nye, THE U.S.-JAPAN ALLIANCE Getting Asia Right
through 2020, CSIS REPORT, February 2007
9
Rapid Economic Growth
Absolute Control by CCP
Enormous Population
Various Problems and Contradictions in Chinese
Society
Environmental Issues Air and water pollution
Decrease of green area
Income Gap
Resource Shortage
Corruption Central and Local Party and
Government
Coastal and Inland gap Urban and Rural
gap Intra-Urban gap
Energy for economic growth The 2nd largest
consumer of oil
Medical Service Too expensive for the poor
??? ???????
Water Shortage
Foods Shortage
Aging Society
Only two-thirds of water resource per person
vis-à-vis Japan
Impact by One-Child Policy Growing burden for
youth
Net importer of foods since 2004 Import of
foods still growing
Concerns for hindering economic growth
Concern for Social Instability (Public protests
are now frequent)
Chinese government and CCP now prioritizes
solution of domestic issues.
Construction of harmonized society
10

• (3) Chinas future

(a) Chinas military modernization has been
obviously making progress, but still way
in the middle (b) The necessity to face the
internal challenges is high (c) The lack of
transparency is a serious problem

• ? China will tend to seek a stable, peaceful
  international environment.
• ? The possibility that China becomes a real
  threat to the US could be low in terms of both
  intensions and military capabilities
• ? In the longer term, however, there is no doubt
  it will become more serious and necessary to pay
  careful attention to prospective Chinas military
  capabilities and military balance in East Asia
• ? US and its allies have to encourage China to
  clarify its intentions clear, including its
  military build-up. Their modernization may
  increase risks of following miscalculation.
• The outside world underestimates PLAs
  power.
• Chinas leaders overestimate their military
  power.

11
(1)Security environment surrounding Japan
3.Future course of Japans national security
policy

• Strategic coexistence of US and China
• (both countries will seek a stable, peaceful
  environment in Asia)
• Relative decrease of US presence or priority in
  Asia

? Low probability of full-scale invasion against
Japan ? Uncertainties and destabilizing factors
still remain ballistic missiles
proliferation of weapons of mass destruction
the situation on the Korean Peninsula and
Taiwan-strait Chinese military
modernization Piracy
12
(2)Other points to be considered
(a) Geographical characteristics of Japan

• Security vulnerabilities resulting from
  geographical reasons (a high population density,
  the concentration of population and industry in
  urban areas, and a large number of important
  facilities in coastal areas)
• Indispensability of the security of sea lines
  of communication (Japan depends almost entirely
  on import of natural resources from overseas)

(b) Political situation about security matters
Severe criticism from the public because of
successive scandals about Ministry of Defense and
Self-Defense-Forces Inward-looking tendency
of the public Strictly limited budget
resources Trend toward fewer children (that
could lead to a difficulty in recruitment)
13
(3)How should Japans future national security
policy look?

• (a) Maintain and expand the close relationship
  between Japan-US
• Strengthen the credibility of Japan-US
  alliance by promoting such measures as
  intelligence exchange, operational cooperation,
  and cooperation on BMD etc.
• (b) Develop a cooperative relationship with China
• Encourage China to improve transparency of its
  military affairs (together with US)
• Encourage the cooperation such as PKO,
  disaster relief activities etc.
• (c) Encourage efforts to improve the
  international security environment particularly
  in Asia (together with ASEAN, India, Australia,
  and US etc.)
• Encourage participations and engagements in
  international cooperation activities such as PKO,
  disaster relief, humanitarian relief,
  international counter-terrorism measures,
  reconstruction assistance, piracy precaution etc.
• Establish a permanent law allowing for the
  dispatch of SDF overseas operations

(d) Reallocate the resources Reduce the
personnel size of GSDF, its tanks, main artillery
etc. Put priority on modernization of MSDF
and ASDF, response to new threats, and
the international cooperation activities
14
(a) Maintain and expand the close
relationship between Japan-US(b) Develop a
cooperative relationship with China(c)
Encourage efforts to improve international
security environment
Conclusion
Remaining uncertainties and unpredictable
factors Chinas future new threats such as
ballistic missile, terrorism, piracy
etc. Importance of sea lane
Strategic coexistence of US and China
Relative decrease of US presence or priority
in Asia
Low probability of full-scale invasion against
Japan Security vulnerabilities Indispensability
of the security of the sea lines of
communication
(d) Reallocate the resources (reform
appeal to the public)
Severe criticism Inward-looking
tendency Limited budget resources Fewer
children
These seem to be more important and realistic
than facing the revision of the constitution and
recognition of the collective self defense