Industry Statistical Update 2005

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Industry Statistical Update2005
Lester Jones January 8, 2006
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Domestic Production and Imports 2004 vs. 2005est
(1,000s of Barrels)
Year may end flat when all the data are in --
2004 and 2005 still have significant revisions to
review from TTB reporting and State reporting.
Source Beer Institute, 2006
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Domestic Production (Tax Paid) of Malt
Beverages1984 2005est (1,000s)
Source Beer Institute and TTB, 2006
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Imports of Malt Beverages31 Gallon Barrels
(1,000s) 1984 2005
Share will grow over 12 of market in 2005
Over the last thirty years, the share of all
imports in US GDP has more than doubled - rising
from 4.8 percent in 1972 to 11.5 percent in 2002.
In 1972 the US imported 74,667 varieties of
goods and in 2001 there were 259,215 varieties.
(FRB NY Staff Report 180)
Source Commerce Department, Bureau of Census
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Shipments and GrowthTop 10 States YTD November
2005
Over 560,000 barrels off from 2004 in top 10
states where top 10 states account for 53 of
volume.
Source Beer Institute, 2006
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Top 10 Growth StatesYTD November 2005
Our top 10 fastest growing states added 766,000
barrels in 2005.
Source Beer Institute, 2006
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Bottom 10 Growth StatesYTD November 2005
But bottom 10 lost over 1.3 million barrels in
2005.
Source Beer Institute, 2006
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Share of Shipments

• Three State Examples from YTD Shipments
• Utah has 0.73 of US LDA population but consumes
  only 0.48 of total US shipments
• North Carolina has 2.93 of the US LDA population
  and consumes 2.92 of shipments
• New Hampshire has 0.45 of US LDA population and
  consumes 0.64 of total US Shipments

Source Beer Institute, 2006
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Share of ShipmentsYTD November 2005
Source Beer Institute, 2006
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Share of Shipments SummaryYTD November 2005
19 states that index below 100 for share of
consumption and account for almost 1 million
barrel decline.
Source Beer Institute, 2006
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Wine Preferred Over Beer for the First Time in
Gallup Poll
695 respondents cant be wrong (Margin of error
/- 4 pt )
Source Gallup Poll, 2005 Do you most often
drink beer, wine, or liquor?
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Over 92 Million People Drank Beer in Past 30 Days!
208 x 44 92 million legal drinking age
consumers
208 x 35 73 million
208 x 33 67 million
Source Scarborough Research 2005 (Sample of
over 70,000 respondents Beer and Spirits are
drank in past 30 days and Wine is purchased past
3 months)
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Beer Gets the Share of Alcohol BudgetSpending by
Household Income
Across almost all income categories, beer gets
the greatest share of household alcohol budget
(459/year)Regressivity debate
Source 2004 Consumer Expenditure Survey, BLS.
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Beer, Still the Largest Segment in the Alcohol
Beverage Industry
Source Beer Institute and Adams Beverage Group,
2005
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Consumer Price Index Beer, Wine, and Spirits at
Home2001 to 2005 (YTD-Nov)
Source BLS, Beer, Wine and Sprits at Home,
Seasonally Adjusted.
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Consumer Price Index Beer at HomeThrough
November 2005
Source BLS, Beer at Home, Seasonally Adjusted,
2005.
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Per Capita Beer Consumptionvs. Median Age1980
2004
Since 1994, Light/Low Carb, Imports, and Craft
have kept the Industry at a steady state.
Source Beer Institute, 2005.
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Per Capita Consumption1970 2004
Assuming a 3.5 growth rate and 1 population
growth, it will be just 4 years before the wine
industry gets back to its 1986 peak of 2.4
gallons per person.
Assuming a 4 growth rate and 1 population
growth, it will be 14 years before the spirits
Industry gets back to its 1978 peak of 2 gallons
per person.
Source Beer Institute, 2005.
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Per Capita Ethanol1970 2004
1980s - 13 of Pop 21-27 yrs
2000 - 10 of Pop 21-27 yrs
Assume 4.5 for beer, 14 for wine and 40 for
spirits
Source Beer Institute, 2005.
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www.BeerServesAmerica.org
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2005 State Excise TaxesTop 10 and Bottom 10
States
Source Beer Institute, 2004 - Excludes local and
state wholesale taxes.
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Average Weighted State TaxPer 31 Gallon
Barrel1973 - 2004
7.85 in 1993
7.71 in 2004
4.58 in 1973
Source Beer Institute, 2005.
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Thank You!

• Beer Institute
• 2004

Lester Jones ljones_at_beerinstitute.org 202-737-2337