Preparations for the revision of the Gothenburg Protocol

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Preparations for the revision of the Gothenburg
Protocol

• Markus Amann
• Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM)
• International Institute for Applied Systems
  Analysis (IIASA)

27th Session of the Executive Body of the
Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air
Pollution Geneva, December 14-18, 2009
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Contents

• State of baseline scenario
• Targets for vegetation damage from ozone

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Availability of national energy scenariosas of
December 2009
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Comparison of assumed GDP growthbetween 2005 and
2020
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Comparison of oil prices assumed in national
scenarios for 2020
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Comparison of carbon prices assumed for
2020National scenarios vs. PRIMES CE package
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Consultation on national baselineshttp//gains.ii
asa.ac.at/Goth_data
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Consultation on national baselines

• Information sent out to national expertsExcel
  sheets on
• macro-economic drivers,
• activity data,
• emission factors,
• emissions.
• Feedbacks to CIAM invited before end January 2010
• Presentation at final baseline at TIAM37, Feb
  22-23, 2010

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Vegetation damage from ozone

• Flux calculations suggest different spatial
  pattern of damage than AOT40
• While flux quantifications are not yet available
  for the relevant tree species,
• would targets based on fluxes lead to different
  emission reduction requirements in Europe?

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Ozone damage indicators AOT40 and AFst1.6
AOT40
AFSt(Y1.6) for beech
Source Simpson et al., Env. Poll. (2007)
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Contributions of NOx and VOC emissions to AFst1.6
EMEP calculations for GAINS 2020 emissions
Contribution of NOx to AFst1.6
Contribution of VOC to AFst1.6
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Conclusions

• Feedbacks to draft national baseline projections
  invited before end of January 2010.
• The use of targets based on O3 fluxes instead of
  AOT40 would call for even higher NOx reductions
  in central Europe, on top what is already implied
  by the targets for health impacts from PM and O3,
  eutrophication and acidification.
• There is a need for robust science and convincing
  communication to the public about the urgency of
  vegetation damage from ozone.