Dr' Melanie Fitzpatrick

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Confronting Climate Change in Minnesota
Google Earth
Dr. Melanie Fitzpatrick mfitzpatrick_at_ucsusa.org U
nion of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, MA July
22, 2009
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Meeting the Climate Challenge

• Mitigation of heat-trapping emissions
• Adapting to changes already in store

iStockphoto.com
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Midwest Climate Impacts Assessment
Available for download at www.ucsusa.org/mwclima
te
Available for download at www.globalchange.gov
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Our Changing Midwest Climate

• Annual temps have warmed more than 2.5ºF since
  1980, with winter increases of almost 4ºF
• Warming winters have caused a scarcity of cold
  snaps in the 1990s
• Growing season extended by one week during the
  20th century
• Extreme precipitation and extreme heat in summer
  are becoming more frequent

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Further warming depends on our emissions choices
Source IPCC 2001
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Projected Temperature Changes
Source NECIA/UCS, 2007 (see www.climatechoices.o
rg/ne/)
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Projected Temp Changes for the MW
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Heat index combines temperature and humidity
How summers may feel
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Scorching Summers Become Standard

• By end of century
• Higher-emissions scenario increases average
  summer temps by 12-15F
• Lower-emissions scenario decreases this average
  by half

10
Heat Wave Chicago 1995

• Temps gt 90F for seven days in a row, two days
  exceeding 100F
• High humidity and night-time temps
• Hospitals overwhelmed 23 Emergency Rooms closed
  to new patients
• Estimated 450-700 heat-related deaths

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Projections for heat waves similar to Chicago in
1995
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Heat Wave Europe 2003

• The worst in at least the past 150 years
• Three months with daily temps significantly
  hotter than normal
• In France, fatalities exceeded 2,000 per day
  during the peak up to 70,000 deaths in 16
  countries

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Projections for heat waves similar to Europe in
2003
Number of European-like heat waves in 30-year
period

• Analysis for Chicago, Indianapolis, Minneapolis
• Every second year by end of century if emissions
  trends continue
• Greatly reduced under lower-emissions future

Union of Concerned Scientists 2009. Confronting
Climate Change in the U.S. Midwest.
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Changing Precipitation

• Increasing winter precipitation with drier
  summers
• More frequent and intense periods of heavy
  rainfall

Red River, Minnesota, Spring 2009
Associated Press
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Changing Spring Precipitation

Higher emissions, end of century

• 30-50 Increase
• Delays in planting spring crops
• Widespread flooding
• Declining water quality

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UCS Resources
Tips and Tools Webinar and PPT
www.ucsusa.org/ssi
Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Midwest
www.ucsusa.org/mwclimate Questions
ssi_at_ucsusa.org