Development, Climate and Energy

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Development, Climate and Energy

• Bangladesh Case Study
• By
• Dr. Atiq Rahman
• Mr. Mozaharul Alam
• Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS)
• 1st Project Team Meeting
• Paris, France
• February 2005

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Phase I General Overview and ApproachDevelopment
-/ CC
Development Progress
Sectoral Development Trends
Sustainable Development
Overlay Climate Change

• What minimum sectors or questions can define
  Sustainable development of Bangladesh?
• Energy Security and
• Food Security

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Food Security Objectives and Issues

• Food on the plate of all citizens
• In-country Production/Import
• Nutrition is one of the main consideration
• Market and Distribution
• Purchasing Power
• Gross income growth

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Food Security Analytical Framework
Demand Scenarios up to 2030 (Gross income growth
rate 5) (Population growth rate WB) (Food
requirement kg/person/day)
Options, Measures, Projects to meet demands (Oppor
tunities, WTO, adaptation to CC, import food,
etc.)
Land Capability Production (development and
natural Degradation, arable land, quality,
productivity, total production, etc.)
Stakeholder Consultation for identification of
barriers, options, measures, projects to meet
demands in a sustainable manner
Climate Change Impacts on Land Capability and
Production
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Energy Security Objectives

• Low on Climate (Reduced GHG Emissions)
• High Access by People
• High Intensity (more Per capita Use)
• Specific Project Considerations
• Review Analysis of National Energy Security
  Challenges.
• Review and Analyse Energy Resource Inventory
• Analyse Long Term Sustainability
• Climate Considerations
• Recommend Long term Security Plan

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Energy Security Challenges

• Traditional Energy Use (Bio-mass)
• 53 (293 Trill BTU) - 2000
• Commercial Energy
• 47 (259 Tr. Btu)
• Natural Gas Reserve
• 12 - 15.55 Tcf (Proven Probable - 2P)
• Indigenous Coal Reserve
• 2 Billion Tons
• Mineable (100 Million Tons)
• Petroleum
• Average 3 Mill. Tons/yr. (All Imported)
• Renewable Energy
• Solar About 26,000 Mill TCE
• WIND (Not Yet Assessed) 500 MW ??

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Urban and Rural Population
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Requirements of Electricity, based on Min. Load
per Household
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Strategies/Interventions for Long Term Energy
Security

• Primary Energy Sector
• Natural Gas Remains the Base-line National
  Energy
• Intensive Exploration in Oil Gas Sector (To Its
  Full Reserve Potential) to Ensure its Long Term
  Availability.
• Bio-mass Supply Sources Usage Pattern to be
  more Organized to Ensure Rural Fuel Supply/demand
  Management
• Increasing Fuel-switching From Petroleum to NG
• Energy Efficiency Measures in Industries
  (Furnaces, Boilers, Optimum Steam Use) to
  Conserve Primary Energy.

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Strategies/Interventions for Long Term Energy
Security

• Securing Electricity Supply On Long Term
• All Rural Area Households to be Brought Under
  Electrification
• Decentralized Small (10 Mw) NG-based Power
  Stations to Receive Priority
• Bio-mass Gas Based Rural Electric Power Plants
  also to be Planned and Implemented (Capacities
  50 Kw to 1 MW)
• About 25 Of Remote Rural Area Households to be
  Served by Solar Home Systems and other Renewable
  Energy.
• Demand-side Management of Electricity to be Made
  more Efficient, Rather Than Increasing Generation
  Capacities.

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Phase II National Development and Climate Change
Linkages

• Proposed Case Studies II
• Address Energy Security and Promote SD in a
  Climate Friendly Manner
• Proposed Plan for National Dialogue
• A core group to finalize questions to be
  discussed and review alternative policy options
  for Energy Security
• Organize Stakeholder Consultation Dialogue in
  March-April 2006
• Methodological Issues
• Existing Policy Analysis
• Alternative Policy and Technology Analysis
• Comparative Analysis

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Phase II National Development and Climate Change
Linkages

• Methodology Overall
• Address Energy Security and Adaptation Policies
• Staring Point Poverty Reduction Strategy,
  Target to Meet MGD and how Climate Change policy
  can be integrated
• For integration Identify a range of specific
  policy options that will help to achieve SD and
  CC.
• Policy options will be evaluated in relation to
  their potential contribution to meeting economic,
  social, human and environmental SD goals.
• Comparative analysis of policy options both in
  terms of national development goals and climate
  benefit including mitigation and adaptation
• Example Electrification ? Assess to Information
  ? Increase Individual and Community Resilience

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Phase II National Development and Climate Change
Linkages

• Methodology
• Staring Point Identification of Key Questions
  and Indicators to ensure energy security and to
  make linkage with CC and SD
• In what way and to what extent are the key
  development goals and visions for the energy
  security is relevant (either through
  vulnerabilities or GHG emissions) to climate
  change? and
• What are the key development issues and related
  policy questions which are also climate relevant,
  which need to be answered for energy sector?
• Demand versus Supply, Suppress Demand,
  Technology, Purchasing Capacity etc,
• Identify goals and indicator for economic,
  social, human and environmental SD goals

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Phase II National Development and Climate Change
Linkages

• Methodology
• Analysis of Development Polices, Programme and
  Projects and try to get answer of the following
• Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
• Power Sector Master Plan
• MGD, etc
• Questions
• In what way (and to what extent) is the key
  goal/vision relevant (either through GHG
  emissions or vulnerabilities) to climate change?
• What alternative development pathways exist to
  enable goals to be achieved through
  climate-friendly (as opposed to climate
  un-friendly) pathways?
• What alternative development strategies may
  enable development goals to be achieved through
  adaptation?

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Phase II National Development and Climate Change
Linkages

• Methodology
• Identification and Analysis of Alternative
  Policies, Programme and Project and try to answer
  the following questions
• Questions
• What are implementation barriers and
  opportunities related to the selected options?
• How can these options be overcome?
• Comparative Analysis
• Lessons Learn
• Tools
• Stakeholder Consultation March/April, 2006
• Use of IPCC Methodology for Assessing GHG
  Emission and if Possible use Models

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Timeframe and Deliverables