NSFARCSS Freshwater Integration study FWI Update on Results, Activities, Plans in the FWI Sunset Pha

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NSF-ARCSSFreshwater Integration study
(FWI)Update on Results, Activities, Plansin the
FWI Sunset Phase
Charles Vörösmarty, Larry Hinzman, Jonathan
Pundsack SEARCH SSC Briefing Washington, DC 6
November 2009
Sponsored by the National Science Foundation
Office of Polar Programs Convened by the
Arctic-CHAMP Science Management Office
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Having a Unifying Concept Helped The
Hydrologic Cycle Links Every Major Component of
the Arctic System
Physics Biology Biogeochemistry Human-i
nduced change Natural variability Human
vulnerability
. and central to the analysis of
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The Science Focal Points
Q1 Is the Arctic FW Cycle Intensifying? Q2 If
So, Why? Q3 What Are the Implications on the
Earth system and humans?
Broad balance of (a) time/space scales (b)
disciplines (c) tools/approaches
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FWI PROGRESS THROUGH 2009

• 5-year official active timeframe, 30M, w/
  22-funded FWI Projects (begun 2002)
• gt100 peer-reviewed publications
• gt100 PI and co-I presentations at prominent
  National and Intl forums
• gt 24 Graduate and Undergraduate FWI Students
• Outreach efforts Press conferences, media
  interviews (CNN, NY Times / Discovery Channel /
  Canadian Broadcasting Co., NPR)

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Synthesis Focal PointsThe Working Groups

• Synthetic questions gtgt any one project or
  investigator
• Projects provided fundamental information
• United models and observations and literature
  reviews
• Well-bounded exercises Sunrise-development-sunset
  
• Facilitation key Synthesis just didnt happen

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2002 Baseline stocks fluxes of fresh water
largely educated guesswork
FWI Budgeteers Working Group
Major uncertainties Budget unbalanced /
unclosed NATO ASI FW Budget of the Arctic
Ocean
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2006 Baseline stocks fluxes of fresh water
largely quantified
Budget exercise motivated an unprecedented
synthesis of literature, observation, and
model-based knowledge Budget closes w/in error
bounds of observations Several sub-domains
successfully quantified  Time variations
recognized as next big challenge
Serreze et al. 2006, JGR-Oceans
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Feedbacks implications on major subsystems
CHANGES AND ATTRIBUTION CAWG Working Group

• Heuristic modeling approach to identify the major
  actors their links
• --agents of ?
• --recipients of ?
• --feedbacks
• defined by
• closed loops

Francis et al., JGR-Biogeosciences (in press)
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Lessons from the US National Science Foundation
FreshWater Integration (FWI) Study

• Change continues to be a hallmark of the Arctic
  hydrologic system
• Many changes coincident with accelerated
  hydrologic cycle
• Manifested at numerous scales, from coordinated
  hemispheric change to diversified local-scale
  change
• Tools (models and data sets) emerging rapidly for
  analyzing behavior of the fully linked water
  system
• Limits arise from incomplete data, model
  components, and approaches for linking these

http//arcticchamp.sr.unh.edu/
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Intensification of the Hydrologic Cycle
CHANGES AND ATTRIBUTION Intensifiers Working
Group
Data synthesis and modeling --not quite as easy
as it may seem --long-term coherent time series
are more than ever critical
Rawlins et al., Journal of Climate (in review.)
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Synthesizing International Understanding of
Changes in the Arctic Hydrological System Workshop

• An FWI Capstone

Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Stockholm,
Sweden 30 September 2 October 2009
Sponsored by the National Science Foundation
Office of Polar Programs through the Arctic-CHAMP
Science Management Office. Co-sponsored by the
International Arctic Research Center (IARC) /
University of Alaska Fairbanks, and the
International Study of Arctic Change
(Sweden/SPRS).
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Workshop Participants

• 30 Participants, representing 8 countries
• Canada, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Iceland,
  Sweden, Russia, USA
• Diverse technical backgrounds and areas of
  expertise
• Atmospheric sciences, ice sheets and glaciers,
  socio-economics, human systems, oceanography and
  sea ice, terrestrial hydrology and permafrost,
  terrestrial and marine ecosystems, biology,
  climatology
• National hydrological and meteorological
  agencies, international research institutes,
  universities, national labs and agencies
• 3 days of plenary Vision talks and discussion,
  breakouts, organizing team post-meeting

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Basic Charge To Identify New Opportunities for
Arctic System Synthesis

• Overarching Question
• Do cumulative effects of changes over space and
  time lead to new equilibrium states?
• adopt notions from ARCSS synthesis and Arctic
  Synthesis Collaboratory planning
•  H2O, Energy, Carbon as currencies explore
  linkages
•  Bioegeophysical and human dimensions
• Rich set of CI and data issues,
  policy-relevance, training

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Key Findings A New Set of Questions

• Q1. What and where are the controls on abrupt
  change and can we identify areas that are
  particularly important and or sensitive to
  change? (hot spots edges, throttle points)
• Q2. When and over what time scales will
  abrupt/step changes occur? (hot moments)
• Q3. What role can human / do natural
  component adaptations play in establishing new
  and sustainable system states?
• Q4. Arctic to global connectivity how will
  step and other changes in the Arctic play
  out/impact/feedback to the Global System?

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Next steps

• Produce strategic document on gaps/opportunities
  for new research and shorter communique (e.g.
  in AGU-Eos)
• Organizing team to meet in Victoria (BC),
  10th-11th January to begin formal drafting
  process
• Publication target mid-2010