Climate Change: The Move to Action AOSS 480 NRE 501

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Climate Change The Move to Action(AOSS 480 //
NRE 501)

• Richard B. Rood
• 734-647-3530
• 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
• rbrood_at_umich.edu
• http//aoss.engin.umich.edu./people/rbrood
• Winter 2008
• April 10, 2008

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Class News

• A ctools site for all
• AOSS 480 001 W08
• This is the official repository for lectures
• Email climateaction_at_ctools.umich.edu
• Class Web Site and Wiki
• Climate Change The Move to Action
• Winter 2008 Term

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Rest of lectures

• April 10 Current Issues // Discussion
• April 15 Final Presentations
• ROOM 2024 900 AM
• April 21 Submission of Final Presentation. (.ppt
  and .doc) (April 24, absolute latest!)

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Seeking Project Happiness
Presentation Total time for presentation and
questions is 30 minutes. Aim for
presentation of 20 minutes. My goal, here, is
something like a real world experience.
Therefore, first get the presentation
right. Paper There should be an accompanying
narrative to the presentation. This should
include references. Minimally Narrative is
description of the presentation. Target
Narrative in the spirit of executive summary, or
white paper that the receiver of the
presentation can take away and carry forward.
Needs Abstract. 10 pages is a good
target. If it is longer than 10 pages needs an
Executive Summary. (Due April 21, Latest April
24) If you want to write more it is great! Ive
had as high as 60 pages by groups who really did
plan, and did, take them forward. You should
feel like you have done a good job, in the time
that you have.
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Readings on Local Servers

• Relevant References
• Princeton Environmental Institute Carbon
  Management Initiative
• Stabilization Wedges Teachers Guide
• McKinsey 2007 report on the cost of greenhouse
  gas
• Alliance for Climate Protection
  (wecansolveit.org)
• 300 M effort by Al Gore
• Hansen paper on 350 ppm as target carbon dioxide
• Links throughout this lecture.
• Lectures from last year added to site
• Geo-engineering (by Phil Rasch)
• 2007 Class Lectures

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Outline of Lecture

• Market based Synthesis
• Some Current Issues
• Discussions

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Elements of environmental pollutant market
F1A
F2A
FiA
COST GAP
FUEL SOURCES
efficiency
F1c
F2c
Fic
SHARES OF POLLUTANT CREDITS
ENERGY PRODUCTION
GDP
.
ABATEMENT
A1
A2
Ai
POLLUTANT
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Lets Think about the Market

• First, to be clear, this is another version of
  the continuity equation.

PRODUCTION
LOSS
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PRODUCTION

• For our problem
• Production comes from burning fossil fuels.
• Here are the ways to reduce production
• Use less energy
• Consume less stuff
• Shrink the economy
• Find fuels that dont emit carbon dioxide
• Dont increase other greenhouse gases
  exponentially!

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Production

• The real way to address the climate change
  problem in the short term is to reduce production
  of carbon dioxide, and
• the real way to do that is to consume less,
• which will shrink the economy.

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Production

• To maintain the growth of the economy and to
  address the climate change problem must
  de-correlate energy consumption from carbon
  dioxide emission.
• This leads to alternative sources of energy.

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Alternative energy

• According the Nathan Lewis, in the long-term
  there are three known sources of adequate energy
  for, say, more than a century or two.
• Nuclear energy with breeder reactors
• Solar energy, but requires new technology for
  efficiency and storage
• Coal with sequestration
• Other alternative energy, while important, do not
  scale with population and economic growth.
• Technology, exploration, and discovery and
  development of new energy sources

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Current alternative energy

• With the presumption that cost of alternative
  energy needs to be comparable with fossil fuel
  sources there needs to be some way to bridge the
  cost gap.
• Personal analysis fee or tax policy seems
  reasonable to bridge this gap.
• Short term, and would help to develop a market.

COST GAP
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Production

• In the near term, by far the most effective way
  we have to reduce production of carbon dioxide is
  efficiency.
• And this makes economic sense.

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Efficiency

• But at this moment we have no way to really give
  valuation to efficiency.
• Hence, historically, efficiency is often met with
  increased consumption.
• How can this be changed?
• Cost of energy is high enough that it demands
  reduction
• Efficiency is given valuation by market or policy
  (fee and tax?)
• Scale to help bridge the fuel cost gap?
• Other?

efficiency
United Nations Foundation Realizing Potential of
Energy Efficiency
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Elements of environmental pollutant market
F1A
F2A
FiA
COST GAP
FUEL SOURCES
efficiency
F1c
F2c
Fic
SHARES OF POLLUTANT CREDITS
ENERGY PRODUCTION
GDP
.
ABATEMENT
A1
A2
Ai
POLLUTANT
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Abatement

• What are the forms of abatement?

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The abatement that we talk about

• Terrestrial sink?
• This is fragile, limited, and there is growing
  evidence that it does not grow to address the
  problem.
• That is carbon fertilization is less effective
  than posed.
• Oceanic sink?
• Evidence of ocean taking up less.

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Remember this curve
BAD
GOOD
Temperature (other environmental parameter)
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Abatement

• What are the forms of abatement?
• Sequestration to keep carbon dioxide out of the
  atmosphere.
• Some engineered way to remove carbon dioxide from
  the atmosphere.
• Think about the energy of this ? requires
  something biological to use the Sun.?

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Abatement

• We dont really have enough abatement options to
  make a market.

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Geo-engineering

• An alternative to mitigation, carbon dioxide
  reduction, of climate change?
• What are the risks?
• References.

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What do we have in the short-term?

• Are there the elements of an effective market?
• Can we make a market?
• The portfolio of near-term, technologically
  feasible reduction of carbon dioxide emissions.
• Pacala and Socolow references

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Past Emissions
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The Stabilization Triangle
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The Wedge Concept
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Stabilization
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(No Transcript)
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McKinsey 2007
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McKinsey 2007 Large
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Some important things

• Hansen paper on 350 ppm as target carbon dioxide
• Sarmiento paper (draft, look for it!) Whats
  happening with carbon dioxide.
• Update on terrestrial and ocean sink

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Some important things

• The Alliance for Climate Protection
  (wecansolveit.org)
• 300 M effort by Al Gore
• McKinsey 2007 report on the cost of greenhouse
  gas
• Putting cost to Pacala and Socolow
• Continuing pressure from the business community
  to rationalize policy
• Whats happening with California and the EPA

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Thank You

• Discussion