PowerPointprsentation

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CEEH workshop February 2008
The importance of demographic changes
Henrik Brønnum-Hansen
University of Southern Denmark
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CEEH objectives

• to study the future production of energy in
  Denmark and consequences of different scenarios
  with respect to environmental and human health
  aspects, and
• to optimize the type of energy production and
  consumption with respect to environmental and
  health economics

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What we dont know
How climate might change in the future
Future demands for energy
How future traffic infrastructure change
How technology to prevent air pollution will
improve in the future
and a lot of other future developments
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What do we assume?
No climate change in the future (?)
No change in traffic infrastructure (?)
No technology improvements as regards prevention
of air pollution (?)
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What do we know?
Quite a lot about
emission dynamics from power plants
the health damaging effect (e.g. respiratory and
cardiovascular diseases) of selected pollutants
(from toxicology and epidemiological studies)
the strong associated between age and health
demographic changes (growing proportion of older
people)
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Why not include something that we do know?
Health is strong associated with age and the age
distribution will change dramatically in the
future
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Prevalence and mortality from diseases of

• the circulatory system and
• chronic obstructive lung disease

by age
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Health effects - analytical frame
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Demography
Population forecasting from Statistics
Denmark Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Change in age distribution Population pyramids
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Exposure
Cumulative effect
Healthy
Diseased
Impaired
Functional limitations
Reduced participation
Dead
Life course and health
Age
The
ing Process
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exposure
Less
Healthy
Diseased
Diseased
Better health and longer life
Impaired
Impaired
Functional limitations
Functional limitations
Reduced participation
Reduced participation
Dead
Dead
Life course and health
Age
The
ing Process
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Experience from the epidemiology of tobacco
smoking
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Tobacco smoking Time, dose and effect
1,2
Heavy smoker
1,0
Ex smoker
0,8
Death rate
0,6
Never smoker
0,4
0,2
0,0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
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Time/Age
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Demography and air pollution
Ageing society and a reduced exposure to air
pollution scenario
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and exposure reduction
Ageing society
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Ageing society and exposure reduction
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Ageing society and exposure reduction
-450000
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Ageing society and exposure reduction
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Ageing society and exposure reduction
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Ageing society and exposure reduction
2000
We need to
model the simultanious impact of demographic and
exposure changes on health
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Thank you for your attention