Internet Futures

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Internet Futures
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Internet Futures
Here I am channelling Anders Rockstrom of Telia
Sonera, whose presentation at the .se event in
October 2006 had a profound impact on me he
stated the truth so clearly and simply it was an
irresistible message. More folk should hear what
he has to say so this is your opportunity!
Ive made some changes to match whats been
happening since 2006, but I think that the
essential message remains the same thanks
Anders! Geoff
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Internet Futures
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purpose

• share some musings about this industry and its
  future

think about some of the major factors that will
shape our future
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why

• This industry has a rich history

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why

• This industry has a rich history

of making poor guesses
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why

• This industry has a rich history

of making poor guesses
and being taken by surprise!
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why

• This industry has a rich history

of making poor guesses
and being taken by surprise!
could we do a better job?
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One approach

• Observe the situation and whats happening
• Believe what we see
• Understand where this may lead us and what
  options may be presented on the way

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User forces on the Market
From telephony to chat to mashups to p2p to ?
From radio to tv to ?
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Revenue Profile
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Revenue Profile
How to fill the gap of the Internets revenue leak
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Service Profile
How to fill the gap of the Internets revenue leak
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Service Profile
How to fill the gap of the Internets revenue leak
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Service Profile
How to fill the gap of the Internets revenue leak
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Service Profile
How to fill the gap of the Internets revenue leak
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Over the top apps
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Over the top apps
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Over the top apps
Content is a commodity application that users do
rather than a valuable service that is delivered
by service providers
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QoS
IMS
Network VPNs
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QoS
IMS
Network VPNs
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QoS
IMS
Network VPNs
Web enabled user generated content
facebook
doppler
youtube
wikipedia
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QoS
IMS
Network VPNs
Web enabled user generated content
facebook
doppler
youtube
wikipedia
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ngn
ims
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Infrastructure roles
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fuelling the usage growth fire
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fuelling the usage growth fire
usage scaling
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fuelling the usage growth fire
Please send heaps more.
bandwidth
storage
switching
fibre routes
routing
addressing
delivering
silicon density
power
heat dissipation
memory speed
storage efficiency
usage scaling
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fuelling the usage growth fire
Please send heaps more.
bandwidth
storage
switching
fibre routes
routing
addressing
delivering
silicon density
power
heat dissipation
memory speed
storage efficiency
usage scaling
But is bigger always cheaper?
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fuelling the usage growth fire
Please send heaps more.
bandwidth
storage
switching
fibre routes
routing
addressing
delivering
silicon density
power
heat dissipation
memory speed
storage efficiency
usage scaling
But is bigger always cheaper?
and what happens when its not?
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Packet pushing is a commodity utility activity
Low margins
Low barriers to entry
No product differentiation
Deregulation and competition
Valued services are overlays to the network
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Packet pushing is a commodity utility activity
Low margins
Low barriers to entry
No product differentiation
Deregulation and competition
Valued services are overlays to the network
Traditional revenue streams are vaporizing
Wired telephony
Business data products
Local Access monopolies
Mobile telephony
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Business
todays telco pressure points
Packet pushing is a commodity utility activity
Low margins
Low barriers to entry
No product differentiation
Deregulation and competition
Valued services are overlays to the network
Traditional revenue streams are vaporizing
Wired telephony
Business data products
Local Access monopolies
Mobile telephony
Investors are getting very nervous about telcos
Cost of capital is rising
Consumers are fleeing legacy telcos in the face
of price gouging
Shareholder returns need to stay high
No residual expertise left in-house
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?
network
commodity utility network operation
high capacity packet pushing
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?
network
commodity utility network operation
User-centric applications, not network-centric
services
high capacity packet pushing
Value shift up the protocol stack
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?
network
commodity utility network operation
User-centric applications, not network-centric
services
high capacity packet pushing
Value shift up the protocol stack
We are reinventing this industry on the fly
Reinvention
new
and different business models
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thank you