Global Warming and Science

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Global Warmingand Science

• March 4, 2008
• Dr. Nicholas Drapela
• Department of Chemistry,
• Oregon State University

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• http//www.youtube.com/watch?vgJxwl69mrEM

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Disclaimer Why this talk?

• A bit about me
• B.S., Science Education, Chemistry and Physics
• Ph.D., Chemistry, Organic Natural Product
  Synthesis
• Not a Republican
• Own no stocks in oil companies (or any other
  companies for that matter)
• Disagree strongly w/ Bush administration
• Love the outdoors and the environment
• Love polar bears and clean air and water
• The truth has no agenda
• The truth is not dependent on consensus, real or
  artificial

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Science The Focus

• This talk focuses on the science behind Global
  Warming
• It is intended for general audiences
• Politics, ecology, sociology, and economics are
  avoided if possible
• See for yourself
• Check this ?

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For a Free Copy of these slides

• Send an email to me at
• nick.drapela_at_orst.edu
• Put GWAS in the Subject line

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Part 1

• What is Global Warming?

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Heat Can Get Trapped
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(No Transcript)
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http//www.ems.psu.edu/fraser/Bad/BadGreenhouse.h
tml
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What Makes Up This Greenhouse?

• Gases in our atmosphere which absorb IR waves and
  radiate some of the heat back toward the earth
• Methane
• Nitrous oxide
• Chlorofluorocarbons
• Carbon dioxide (CO2)

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Global Warming Doctrine

• Modern society burns fossil fuels such as
• Gasoline, natural gas, coal
• All of these give off CO2 as they burn
• The added CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing the
  greenhouse effect on the earth
• This is increasing the temperature of the earth
  beyond its normal range
• Soon, this will result in disastrous consequences
  for life on earth
• The only way to avoid this is to reduce world CO2
  emissions

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Predictions From Global Warming

• Rising sea levels
• Existential threat to low-lying areas such as
  Venice, San Francisco, the Netherlands, and
  Florida
• Melting of glaciers and ice caps

http//www.ens-newswire.com/ens/jan2005/2005-01-28
-10.asp
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Predictions From Global Warming

• Agriculture losses
• Water shortages
• Massive drought
• Food shortages

http//www.ens-newswire.com/ens/jan2005/2005-01-28
-10.asp
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Predictions From Global Warming

• Loss of habitat for arctic wildlife
• Inuit children unable to continue in their culture

http//www.ens-newswire.com/ens/jan2005/2005-01-28
-10.asp
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Predictions From Global Warming

• Severe loss of marine life
• Extinction of polar bears
• Widespread adverse health effects

http//climate-change.suite101.com/article.cfm/glo
bal_warming_predictions
http//www.worldwildlife.org/climate/science/arcti
cReport.cfm
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Predictions From Global Warming

• Severe storms
• Large-scale energy disruptions
• The world is running out of time

http//climate-change.suite101.com/article.cfm/glo
bal_warming_predictions
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Global Warming in the Media
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• An increasing body of observations gives a
  collective picture of a warming world and other
  changes in the climate system.
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
  2001

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Part 2

• None of this is true

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Preview

• There is no factual evidence to show that the
  earth is now without question above its normal,
  historical temperature range.
• There is no factual evidence to show that it soon
  will be, or ever will be.
• Even if it were, CO2 could not be causing it.

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Fact 1

• There is indeed a greenhouse effect on the earth
  and that is good
• If there were not, the earths temperature would
  drop by roughly 60F, ending life as we know it
  on earth

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Fact 2

• Global Warming theory is based on models, not on
  evidence
• These computer models are made up by people, and
  are limited by
• the programmer
• our scientific knowledge
• the ethics of the people who invent them

http//www.physorg.com/news593.html
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Hard Data or Prediction?

• Graphs such as this one are based on
  extrapolations from weather models, not data
• Check this ?

http//www.americanthinker.com/2007/09/one_more_re
ason_to_distrust_gl.html
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The Famous Hockey Stick

• The only irregular part of the graph is the
  model, not the data

McIntyre, Stephen Ross McKitrick, Geophysical
Research Letters 2005, 2, 32
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Fact 3

• These models have already shown to be incorrect
• Ex. Model prediction Troposphere warming
• Actual fact No significant troposphere warming
  is occurring

http//www.cnsnews.com/ViewNation.asp?Page/Nation
/archive/200205/NAT20020514b.html
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Hurricanes

• Ex. model prediction 2006 worst hurricane year
  on record
• Actual fact 2006, 2007 two of the calmest
  hurricane seasons in decades
• Check this ?
• Many other model failures exist

http//edition.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/11/30/hurrican
es/index.html
http//www.usatoday.com/weather/stormcenter/2005-1
1-30-hurricane-cycle_x.htm
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Global Cooling

• In 1970, scientists agreed by consensus that the
  earth was headed for catastrophic global cooling

(Scientists) are almost unanimous in the view
that the (cooling) trend will reduce agricultural
productivity for the rest of the centurythe
resulting famines could be catastrophic." --News
week, 1975
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Global Cooling Was Certain
http//www.gerrycharlottephelps.com/2006/06/the_co
oling_wor.html
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• If 50 million people say a stupid thing, it is
  still a stupid thing.
• Anatole France (1844-1924)

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Past Predictions

• In ten years all important animal life in the
  sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline
  will have to be evacuated because of the stench
  of dead fish.
• Paul Ehrlich, Center for Conservation Biology,
  Stanford University
• Predicted in 1970

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Fact 4

• Global warming predictions commonly change to fit
  whatever data is most recently discovered
• More rain, then less rain
• Ice cap melting, then ice cap growing
• Drought, then flooding
• No piece of information can be used to disprove
  the doctrine
• Check this ?

http//www.livescience.com/environment/070531_gw_r
ainfall.html
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Fact 5

• Weather records show that increased human CO2
  emissions were linked to decreased earth
  temperatures from 1940-1980

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Fact 6

• The amount of CO2 released and absorbed by oceans
  each year dwarfs the amount emitted by humans
• 93 of all CO2 in the earth and its atmosphere is
  contained in the ocean

http//www.waterencyclopedia.com/Bi-Ca/Carbon-Diox
ide-in-the-Ocean-and-Atmosphere.html
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Fact 7

• When oceans warm, they release CO2
• This is why CO2 has increased and decreased
  over time

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Inconveniently Separated

• Temperature/CO2 correlation in ice core records
  from An Inconvenient Truth
• Why are the graphs separated?

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CO2 Levels Follow Temp Changes

• Note on close inspection that CO2 lags behind
  temperature, not the reverse
• (Also note that CO2 levels have been naturally
  varying for eons w/o human fossil fuel emissions)

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Fact 8

• The most abundant greenhouse gas in the
  atmosphere, by far,is water vapor
• 95 of heat trapped in the troposphere is due to
  water vapor

http//www.geyserlandobservatory.org/atmosphere/at
mosphere.html
http//www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/alternate/page/enviro
nment/appd_d.html
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IR Absorptions

• Water vapor absorbs energy in the same regions of
  the infrared as CO2

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Greenhouse Efficiency of Water

• Besides being more abundant, water is three times
  as efficient at absorbing infrared energy as CO2

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Fact 9

• Other planets in our solar system are warming as
  well
• Numerous studies are showing that Mars, Jupiter,
  Neptune, and the moon Triton are all warming

http//www.usatoday.com/tech/science/space/2006-05
-04-jupiter-jr-spot_x.htm?POETECISVA
http//www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2006GL028764
.shtml
http//www.scienceagogo.com/news/19980526052143dat
a_trunc_sys.shtml
http//web.mit.edu/newsoffice/1998/triton.html
http//motls.blogspot.com/2006/05/global-warming-o
n-jupiter.html
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Martian Icecaps

• The icecaps on Mars are melting
• If CO2 is the culprit, why is Mars also warming?

http//news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/02/07
0228-mars-warming.html
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Martian Warming

• "Mars has global warming, but without a
  greenhouse and without the participation of
  Martians.
• Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov
• Director, Space Research Laboratory
• Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory
• Russian Academy of Science

http//www.nationalpost.com/story.html?idedae9952
-3c3e-47ba-913f-7359a5c7f723k0
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Fact 10

• In the last 4 months, almost all lost polar ice
  has returned
• This fact is reported by the National Oceanic and
  Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

http//www.newsmax.com/newsfront/global_warming_or
_cooling/2008/02/19/73798.html
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Growing Ice Caps

• The ice between Canada and southwestern
  Greenland has reached its highest level in 15
  years.
• Meteorological Institute of Denmark, 2008
• Levels of Antarctic ice are also increasedone
  third higher than normal for this time of year

http//newsbusters.org/blogs/lynn-davidson/2008/02
/16/western-greenland-ice-growing-still-global-war
ming
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Polar Bear Party

• Despite popular media portrayal, polar bear
  numbers are increasing
• Canadian government survey Polar bear
  population has increased 250 in last 20 years
• The indigenous Inuit people report the same

http//www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id1ea
8233f-14da-4a44-b839-b71a9e5df868
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Fact 11

• When compared with larger-timeframe historical
  temperatures, current earth temperatures are in
  the normal range

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Fact 12

• Despite strenuous attempts to claim consensus and
  the end of debate, Global Warming theory is far
  from accepted by all scientists
• 2008 International Conference on Climate Change,
  New York
• March 2-4, 2008
• Check this ?

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Non-Believers

• John Coleman, Founder of the Weather Channel
• Dr. Patrick Moore, Founder of Greenpeace
• Prof. Richard Lindzen, MIT Meteorology and
  climate expert
• Michael Crichton, Author

http//icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/comments_a
bout_global_warming/
http//www.basinelectric.com/NewsCenter/News/Featu
redArticles/Greenpeace_founder_d.html
http//physicsworld.com/cws/article/print/26945
http//www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId16260
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Weather Channel Founder

• It is the greatest scam in history. I am
  amazed, appalled, and highly offended by it.
  Global Warming it is a scam.
• John Coleman

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MIT Meteorologist

• (The IPCC) has decided that they have to
  convince other people that since no scientist
  disagrees you shouldnt disagree either.
  Whenever you hear that in science, its pure
  propaganda.
• Prof. Richard Lindzen

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Fact 13

• Lay people can make valid observations
• Facts surround us
• Deep freeze over US and southern Asia set records
  the past few Winters
• Much of citrus crop in California and Florida was
  destroyed by ice
• Record lows have been observed world-wide in the
  last few years

http//gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2008/02/brrrr-26
0-dead-in-south-asia-pakistan.html
http//www.srh.noaa.gov/sjt/html/news/April7thwint
erwx.html
http//www.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/02/11/minnesota
.cold.ap/
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Part 3

• Are you serious?

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Social Reaction

• Cognitive dissonance
• Stages of reaction
• 1. Anger
• 2. Bigotry
• 3. Resentment
• 4. Frustration
• 5. Re-evaluation
• 6. Awakening
• 7. Activism

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Concluding Points

• 1. No cause is served well by misinformation
• 2. Be an independent thinker
• 3. Do not be discouraged! YOU can make a
  difference!
• There are many worthy causes. Choose one,
  research it, and take it up, and make a real
  difference

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Possible Further Talks

• Global Warming and Social Engineering
• Global Warming An Alternate Theory

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Thank You