Anette Braun VDIZTC

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EFMN issue analysis 
Anette Braun (VDI-ZTC) Sylvie Rijkers-Defrasne
(VDI-ZTC) Agnes Pechmann (Dialogik) Effie
Amanatidou (Atlantis) Foteini Psarra (Atlantis).

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General objectives

• The issue analysis aims in particular at
  identifying and analysing key emerging science
  and technology issues that are relevant for
  European Union policies, in particular the ST
  policies highlighted in Foresight activities at
  national or regional level in European countries.
• On an annual basis, the EFMN Issue Analysis
  (WP4) exploits the outputs of the foresight
  mapping and the TNO DYNAMO database (WP2, WP3)
  in order to analyse the policy priorities that
  emerge from Foresight exercises.

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Issue Analysis activities

• select the Foresight activities that offer the
  highest potential to support European science and
  technology policies.
• identify and assess emerging ST issues relevant
  to the European ST policy making
• prepare, convene and report upon an annual
  workshop focusing on one particularly relevant
  issue and involving the EU Commission and
  external experts. An in-depth consolidation paper
  is prepared prior to the workshop.

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Issue Analysis 2005 - 2007

• Identification of emerging issues based on a
  pool of preselected foresights
• 2005 and 2006 recent foresights
• 2007 pool of foresights used in a given mapping
  analysis
• Selection criteria for emerging issues
• - S T advances are likely to take place over
  the next 5 to 10 years
• - S T areas promote possibilities for other
  scientific developments
• - S T areas that tend to benefit from
  international collaboration
• - S T areas that develop new approaches to
  multi- or interdisciplinary cooperation
• - S T that are likely to result in major
  benefits to society
• - S T areas that are linked with ethical
  issues

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Additional selection criteria

• Contribution to EU policy objectives
• The issue may be one of current importance or
  likely to become important in the medium to long
  term.
• European research potential
• There is a strong potential for excellent
  research and technological development and for
  disseminating and converting the results into
  social and economic benefits.
• European added value
• For the issue progress, there is a strong need
  for additional intervention at a European level.
• Contribution to the building and strengthening of
  the European Research Area (ERA) Creation of an
  internal market in research, Coordination of
  national research activities and policies,
  Development of a European research policy.

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Screening and Clustering of Socio-economic
Issues, Innovations and ST Developments
addressed along the Dynamo taxonomy

• Science and Technology developments
• are considered enabling inventions that can
• be applied in innovations. These
• developments as such are not focused at the
• fulfillment of social, but more at technological
• functions.
• Innovations are considered commercial
• applied science and/or technology in an
• innovative new way. They use new insights in
• ST, focus on market/societal needs and
• provide applications that address their
• specific social functions.
• Socio-Economic Issues are considered the
• demand side of our society. They are
• problems of economic, social and
• environmental nature where innovation can
• offer an answer or solution.

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Issue Analysis 2005 - 2007

• Based on these criteria and in collaboration with
  the EC, the following issues were selected and
  addressed in the issue analysis
• 2005 Cognitive Science
• 2006 Healthy Ageing
• 2007 Emerging Knowledge-based Economy and
  Society.

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New Approach 2008

• Instead of selecting the issue on basis of a
  preselected pool of sources
• Identification of interesting issues
  (underlying issues) starting from the analysis
  of future challenges for EU policies (SEC(2007))
• Identification of adequate sources for the
  analysis out of the EFMN database Recent
  foresights completed in 2006-2007 or ongoing
  (Emerging character of the issue and
  forward-looking view)

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Issue Analysis 2008

• 2008 issue Future of public health systems in
  Europe
• Mid-June Consolidation Paper
• 26 June 2008 WS
• 5 September 2008 IA Final Report
• available soon at www.efmn.eu

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Lessons learnt from the EFMN Issue Analysis

• The issue analysis was based on the intelligence
  (knowledge, expertise, data) of the EFM-Network.
• The methodology used has iteratively evolved as
  the EFM- Network matured and especially as the
  amount of information included in the DYNAMO
  database grew.

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Lessons learnt from the EFMN Issue Analysis

• From a bottom-up process to a more analytical
  approach
• 2005 Setup of the network, as well as of the
  database facilities
• ? limited amount of information
• ? the identification and selection of relevant
  issues based on a bottom-up system, exploiting
  the knowledge and expertise of EFMN partners.
• 2006 Identification of interesting emerging
  issues solely based on processing the information
  included in DYNAMO.
• ? Ranking of issues along their frequency in
  foresight exercises and additionally along their
  future importance (forecasting) by an expert
  team/EC voting

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Lessons learnt from the EFMN Issue Analysis

• From a bottom-up process to a more analytical
  approach
• 2007 Refinement of methodology
• In-depth internal discussion about the
  relevance of using a ranking of issues based on
  their frequency in foresight activities for
  identifying emerging issues
• ? An emerging issue seen from an EU perspective
  might be an issue addressed frequently in
  national or regional foresight activities in EU
  countries but which has not been explored in its
  European dimension.

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Strengths of the EFMN Issue Analysis

• IA highly relies on the quality of information
  included in the database
• ? Main strength as information has been mapped
  by foresight practitioners and experts the EFMN
  correspondents.
• Over 1600 foresight activities were collected in
  the period 2004-2007
• ? sound basis of information on future trends
  and perspectives attaching high significance to
  their statistical processing in the Issue
  Analysis

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Limitations of the EFMN Issue Analysis

• Given the complexity of the relationship between
  different ST performances, socioeconomic
  systems, cultural patterns, geographic areas,
  times, etc, it was impossible to derive at one
  unique theoretical definition for emerging ST
  issues.
• Country coverage,
• Availability of English translations of foresight
  results
• The EFMN IA may be best regarded as an
  intelligent reading and validation process of
  foresight and forecasting exercises inventoried
  in DYNAMO / EFMN briefs.
• The IA approach contributes to an informed
  policy debate and to the quality and legitimacy
  of decision making processes.

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How to conduct the issue analysis in the future?
How to conduct the issue analysis in the future?

• Proposals for improvement
• Processing time series data on the information
  included in the DYNAMO database.
• Underlining emerging cross-linkages between
  interesting issues addressed in foresights
• Snapshots on several issues highlighted in
  foresights providing an overview of topics for
  discussion in the policy arena.

• Proposals for improvement
• Processing time series data on the information
  included in the DYNAMO database.
• Underlining emerging cross-linkages between
  interesting issues addressed in foresights
• Snapshots on several issues highlighted in
  foresights providing an overview of topics for
  discussion in the policy arena.
• More Info in
• Rijkers-Defrasne, S., Braun. A. et al.,
  Detecting and analysing emerging science and
  technology issues the EFMN Issue Analysis,
  foresight, Vol. 10, Issue 6, p. 90 102, 2008

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Thank you very much!

• For further questions
• Dr. Anette Braun Dr. Sylvie Rijkers-Defrasne
• E-Mail braun_a_at_vdi.de E-Mail rijkers_at_vdi.de
• Future Technologies Division of VDI TZ GmbH
• Airport City Peter-Müller-Str. 1 D-40468
  Düsseldorf www.zt-consulting.de