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GDAyO - IMFIA (Grupo de Dinámica de la Atmósfera
y el Océano -Instituto de Mecánica de los
Fluidos e Ingeniería Ambiental) Facultad de
Ingeniería - Universidad de la República URUGUAY
José L. Genta, Gabriel Pisciottano, Alvaro
Díaz, Gabriel Cazes, Mariana Mendina and Rafael
Terra
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SHORT-TERM CLIMATE SCENARIOS(Emerging
collaboration with LA27 team)

• Premise Natural Anthropogenic Climate
  Change is continuosly occurring.
• How can we best (better than latest 30-year mean)
  characterize the present climate?
• Can we construct a climate scenario by
  statistically proyecting the recent climate to
  the near future?

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(No Transcript)
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Predictability arises from periodicities
(Trends alone cannot decribe the past and
future- variability)
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PROYECTED SHORT-TERMCLIMATE SCENARIOS (I)

• Based on past modes of low frequency
  variability which are extrated with existing
  statistical techniques e.g. Robertson et al.
  2001 (GRL) for Paraná streamflow.
• These modes are subject to physical
  interpretation and may contribute to the better
  understanding (and modeling) of the climate
  system.
• These scenarios could be of inmediate use since
  they aim at describing the present (and near
  future) base climate.

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Interannual to ENSO variability also shows an
increasing trend
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PROYECTED SHORT-TERMCLIMATE SCENARIOS (II)

• The base climate should include information on
  the high frequency variability that is an
  intrinsic and very important characteristic of
  climate.
• Still, scenarios should NOT be confused with
  interannual climate predictions (which
  necessarily have to make a forecast of the
  shortest frequency).