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IDHW - URBANIZATION AND THE TRANSITION
TO
SUSTAINABILITY - BONN, GERMANY
UNDERSTANDING AND MODELLING URBAN LAND USE
DYNAMICS TO ACHIEVE SUSTAINABILITY
Claudia Maria de Almeida, Antonio Miguel Vieira
Monteiro, Gilberto Câmara, Britaldo Silveira
Soares-Filho, Gustavo Cerqueira Cerqueira, Cassio
Lopes Pennachin
06/2002
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DINAMICA DATA MODEL
Static Variables technical infrastructure
social infrastructure
real state market occupation density etc.

Initial Land Use
Dynamic Variables type of land
use-neighbouring cells dist. to
certain land uses.
P ij
P ik
Calculates Dynamic Variables
P jk
Calculates Spatial Transition Probability
Calculates Amount of Transitions
Transition
Iterations
Final Land Use
Source Adapted from SOARES (1998).
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LAND USE CHANGE MODELLING - TIME SERIES

tp - 20
tp - 10
tp
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MACRO STUDY AREA
Subdivision of Tietê Watershed
Downstream
Lower Midstream
Waterway Catchment Area
Tiete-Parana Waterway
Development Poles
São Paulo Metropolitan Region
Upper Midstream
Source CESP, 2000
Upstream
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INTRAURBAN STRUCTURES

Bauru - 1979 Regional Development Pole - 305,753
inh., 2000
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STUDY AREA
179,823 inh.
232,005 inh.

Residential Use
Industrial Use
Services Use
Mixed Use
Commercial Use
Leis./Recreation
Institutional Use
Non-Urban Use
Initial and Final Land Use Maps Bauru - 1979 and
1988

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INTERVENING VARIABLES
Variáveis Endógenas (Lentas)
Endogenous Variables

• zoning and urban legislation
• technical and social infrastructure
• topography
• protection/conservation areas
• floodable plains improper areas for urban
  occupation
• socio-economic level and land use in the
  surroundings
• real state market
• jobs availability
• proximity to quaternary centres (universities
  and research institutes)
• great polarising achievements, such as
  industrial parks, big malls,
• resorts, thematic parks etc.

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INTERVENING VARIABLES
- traffic and transport systems
- energy supply systems
- water supply and sewage disposal and treatment
systems
- telecommunications (e.g. radio, TV, internet
connections)
- solid waste collection, disposal and treatment
- cemiteries etc.
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INTERVENING VARIABLES
- educational system
- health care system
- public institutions
- religious institutions
- security systems
- commercial and services activities
- sports facilities
- leisure /entertainment and green areas systems
- social care facilities (kindergartens, youth
centres, retirement homes)
- cultural institutions (museums, libraries,
cultural centres,etc.) etc.
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INTERVENING VARIABLES

• Breakages in the general economic trends
  (economic or financial
• crises, energetic shortages, etc.)
• meteorologic disturbances which affect
  tillage or tourism activities
• local or regional policies that may impact
  the expected performance
• of the different economic sectors etc.

Variáveis Endógenas (Lentas)
Variáveis Exógenas
Exogenous Variables

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EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS

Water Supply
Distances to Railways
Occupation Density

Commerce - Kernel Est.
Social Equipments
Distances to Industries
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TRANSITION PROBABILITIES
Weights of Evidence (Dinamica - CSR/UFMG)

n
? ? W x,y

i1 Px,y(n,r)/(S1Sn)
O(R) . e n
? ?
W x,y
i1 1
O(R) . e
W loge P S/R P S/R
S Water Supply (Evidence)
R Non-Urb._Resid. (Event)
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EVIDENCES MAPS NU_RES

POSSIBILITY OF EXTENDING BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE
NEED OF COMMUTING TO WORK IN CENTRAL AREAS
WITHIN REASONABLE DISTANCES
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EVIDENCES MAPS NU_IND


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EVIDENCES MAPS NU_SERV
SUPPLIERS MARKET
CONSUMERS MARKET
ACCESSIBILITY TO MARKETS

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EVIDENCES MAPS RES_SERV
AMID THE SUPPLIERS AND CONSUMERS MARKETS
ACCESSIBILITY
DOES NOT COVER THE WHOLE URBANISED AREA


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EVIDENCES MAPS RES_MIX
CONSOLIDATION OF FORMER SECONDARY COMMERCIAL
CENTRES
IMPLIES ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY
ACCESSIBILITY IN FARTHER AREAS
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EVIDENCES MAPS CONCLUSIONS
Land use transitions show to comply with
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SIMULATIONS OUTPUTS
Reality - Bauru Land Use in 1988
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SIMULATIONS OUTPUTS
Reality - Bauru in 1988
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FINAL CONSIDERATIONS
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CONTRIBUTIONS OF IHDW
Variáveis Endógenas (Lentas)
Insertion of New Variables for Forecasts Analysis
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IDHW - URBANIZATION AND THE TRANSITION
TO
SUSTAINABILITY - BONN, GERMANY
UNDERSTANDING AND MODELLING URBAN LAND USE
DYNAMICS TO ACHIEVE SUSTAINABILITY
Claudia Maria de Almeida, Antonio Miguel Vieira
Monteiro, Gilberto Câmara, Britaldo Silveira
Soares-Filho, Gustavo Cerqueira Cerqueira, Cassio
Lopes Pennachin
06/2002