Highresolution Climate Scenarios for the 21st Century and Applications in Impacts Assessments on Wat

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High-resolution Climate Scenarios for the 21st
Century and Applications in Impacts Assessments
on Water Resources in China

• Yinlong XU (? ??)
• Institute of Environment and Sustainable
  Development in Agriculture,
• Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS)
• Beijing, China
• Tel [phone] Fax [phone]
• E-mail xuyl_at_ami.ac.cn
• 24 Feb. 2008

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Content

• Background of climate change research
• Construction of high-resolution climate change
  scenarios with PRECIS
• Climate change responses under SRES A2 B2 GHGs
  emissions scenarios
• Methodology to employ PRECIS outputs for impacts
  assessments
• Some results of impacts assessments on Chinese
  natural ecosystems and water resources
• Questions to discuss

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The warming is the most obvious in the mid-
high-latitudes
The warming ratio in 1901-2000?)
-1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4
-0.2 0 0.2
0.4 0.6 0.8
1
?/decade
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The warming ratio in winter in 1976-2000
-1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4
-0.2 0 0.2
0.4 0.6 0.8
1
?/decade
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The warming projection in IPCC AR4
Warming Background
There have been totally 22 warming winter
already in China
?50?????
Warming over China
Data resources Ding YH
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An introduction to downscaling
GCMs
Impacts Models
Downscaling
Horizontal resolution 110-600 km
Local details
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Methods for downscaling

• Simple interpolation
• Statistical method
• Regional climate model (RCM)
• RCM statistical

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A demo for RCM downscaling
A demo for RCM downscaling
HadAM3P
PRECIS
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Downscaling with RCM
GCM
RCM
Lateral Boundary
Initial Conditions
Other Forcings
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What is PRECIS?

• PRECISProviding Regional Climates for Impacts
  Studies
• Purpose 1 to develop the regional-level SRES
  climate scenarios over the world
• Purpose 2 to provide the datasets for the
  impacts assessments of climate change at the
  regional-level

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The climate change scenarios in China are
developed based on SRES socio-economic
assumptions SRES IPCC 2000, Special Report on
Emission Scenarios
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PRECIS Interface
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Job status of PRECIS

• NCEP re-analysis data 1979-2003
• ECMWF re-analysis data 1957-2001
• ECMWF re-analysis data 1979-1993
• HadCM3(UK Met Office Hadley Centre)
• Baseline (1961-1990) No1 No2 No3
• A2 (2071-2100) No1 No2 No3
• B2 (2071-2100) No1 only
• A1B (1961-2100) No1 only
• ECHAM4(Germany MPI)
• A2 (1961-2100) No1 only
• B2 (1961-2100) No1 only

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Domain of PRECIS
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Terrain
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Cliamte Change Responses over whole China under
B2 scenarioMaximum/minimum temperature
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Cliamte Change Responses over whole China under
B2 scenario----precipitation
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Cliamte Change Responses over whole China under
A2 scenario in 2080s relative to baseline
(1961-1990)
Temperature precipitation
Annual Annual
Winter Winter
Summer Summer
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Temperature (?C) and precipitation changes () in
Southwest China and whole China(20712100 vs
19611990)
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Extreme Climate Events Criteria-1
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Extreme Climate Events Criteria-2
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Changes of Extreme Climate Events2071-2100 vs
1961-1990, SRES A2

• SU
• b. CFD
• c. GSL
• d. R20mm
• e. RX5day
• f. SDII
• (Unit )

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Changes of Extreme Climate Events2071-2100 vs
1961-1990, SRES B2

• SU
• b. CFD
• c. GSL
• d. R20mm
• e. RX5day
• f. SDII
• (Unit )

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Impacts Assessments of Climate Change on Chinese
Agriculture
Weather Generator
Daily Tmax/min, Pre, Srad
Monthly T, P

Crop Varities
Crop Models
HadCM2 ECHAM4
Soil Data
Yield Changes etc
Management Data
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Impacts Assessments of Climate Change on Chinese
Agriculture
Weather Generator gtRCM
Daily Tmax/min, Pre, Srad

Crop models
Crop Varities
Soil Data
Yield Changes, etc
Management Data
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How to use future climate change scenariosfor
impacts assessment
Future scenarios
Baseline
Observation
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Impacts of CC on natural systems
2050s under B2 scenario
2080s under B2 scenario
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Changes of runoff in China
A2????
The drought would be enhanced along the Yellow
River While the potential flooding risk along the
Yangtze River would increase under SRES A2
scenario
B2????
Similar to A2 scenario, but amplitude is not so
large as A2 scenario
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???????????
????????
????????
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Questions to discuss

• To generate higher-resolution climate scenarios
• More research fields to expand
• More analyses on CC IV assessments
• Case study on adaptation options
• Addressing the uncertainties
• Developing Provincial Strategies to Cope with CC

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Chinas INC on CC the 1st Version of National
Assessment Report on CC Impacts
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Computer network to run PRECIS
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Thank you!
Welcome you to visit Beijing!