Who on earth cares about water

1
Who on earth cares about water ?
J. Feyen Faculty of Agricultural and Applied
Biological Sciences Department of Land
Management, Leuven, Belgium
2
Water, a most precious resource !

• Those confronted with excess, i.e. either too
  much or too little are for sure concerned. Those
  not .. do not care at all, unless . a few by
  profession!
• How much cost water? (in Belgium total cost is
  equal to 0.25 to 2.5 of net family income)
• When the well is dry, we know the worth of water
  (Benjamin Franklin)

3
The trouble with water is that there is either
too much or .
4

.. too little of it!

5
Water, a most precious resource

• Humans can live for a month without food, but
  will die in less than a week without water.
• Humans consume water, discard it, poison it,
  waste it, and restlessly change the hydrological
  cycles, indifferent to the consequences too many
  people, too little water, water in the wrong
  places and in the wrong amounts.
• The human population is burgeoning, but water
  demand is increasing twice as fast.
• (Quoted from Water Wars by Marq de Villiers, 1999)

6
Water, a most precious resource

• 22 African countries fail to provide safe water
  for at least half their population - Africa has
  some of the greatest lakes in the world
  (Victoria, Tanganyika, Nyasa, Chad, but they
  are shrinking)
• Critical countries in Asia are China, India and
  Pakistan hosting more than 2 billion inhabitants
• Middle East is mostly arid, deserts are spreading
  through south-central Turkey and down the
  Euphrates River system in Iraq to the Persian
  Gulf, and from Jordan to Syria

7
Water, a most precious resource
There are hundreds, may I say thousands, of
houses in this metropolis which have no drainage
whatever, and the greater part of them have
stinking, overflowing cesspools. And there are
also hundreds of streets, courts and alleys that
have no sewers and how the drainage and filth
are cleaned away and how the miserable
inhabitants live in such places, it is hard to
say. (John Philips, engineer, London, 1847)
8
Water, a most precious resource

• Although we can not live without clean water, yet
  we use our waterways as a dumping ground for
  waste, pouring billions of tonnes of chemicals,
  methals and organic pollutants into lakes, rivers
  and oceans every year.
• Today we continue to ignore the vital importance
  of water, while consuming more and more. Not only
  is the level of water in the global well getting
  low, the water is also polutted, sometimes to the
  point where it is no longer drinkable.

9
Water, a most precious resource
What we pour down the drain comes back out of our
taps !
10
Water, a most precious resource

• In 1930s there were fifty-two species of fish in
  the river Rhine. By 1975 there were twenty-nine,
  and most of them were on the verge of extinction.
  The river was suffocating oxygen saturation had
  diminished from a norm of 90 percent to 40. A few
  years later biologists officially declared the
  river dead. The Rhine was converted into a sewer.
  
• 1991 .ICPR established restoration of the
  Rhine, recognized as the backbone of the
  ecosystem

11
Water, a most precious resource

• Severe pollution in Lake Maracaibo and the Gulf
  of Venezuela, at the mouth of Rio Magdalena,
  Colombia, in the Gulf of Guayaquil, Ecuador, at
  Blanca Bay, Argentina, at the mounth of the River
  Plate between Argentina and Uruguay, on the coast
  south of São Paulo and around Rio, and along the
  coast at Recife.
• The cowboy capitalism and the corruption of
  officials in Brazil led to an outpouring of
  chemical and industrial pollution exceeded only
  in Eastern Europe and parts of China. gt130 tons
  of mercury are washed annually onto the banks of
  Tapajos River from the gold-mining industry.

12
Water, a most precious resource

• Whenever we contaminate one part of the
  hydrological cycle, we risk contaminating it all.
  For example, DDT, a pesticide now banned in most
  developed countries, has been detected in every
  phase of the water cycle.
• Population served by waste-water treatment plants
  (Denmark 98.0 Sweden 95 UK 87.0 USA
  71.6 Spain 53.0 Japan 45.9 Portugal
  20.9 Greece 11.4 Turkey 6.3 developing
  countries ?)

13
Water, a most precious resource

• Because most of us do not know where our wastes
  go and do not see the impact they have, we
  continue to pollute.
• Our current economic system does not take into
  account the costs of environmental degradation -
  we profit by polluting. Our economic system is
  not structured to reflect the vital importance of
  clean water for life.

14
Water, a most precious resource

• Even a wealthy country like the USA, with access
  to the latest in technology, cannot rule out a
  water crisis in the future. Half of US rivers and
  lakes have been damaged by pollution. Some public
  waterworks have had to shut down owing to
  groundwater pollution.
• A wealthy American industrialist has been buying
  freshwater lakes to leave to his grandchildren
  ...

15
Water, a most precious resource

• Will global climate change alter the hydrological
  cylce?
• Sea-level rise observed from 1890-1990 100-250
  mm
• Expected sea-level rise for the period 1990-2100
  130-940 mm (low IS92c-scenario, high
  IS92e-scenario, including aerosol effects)
• people subject to annual flooding will go up from
  47 million at present to about 100 million
• 50 of worlds coastal wetlands in danger
• immense investment for rising dikes
• saltwater intrusion in aquifers, disruption of
  drainage and irrigation systems

16
Water, water everywhere
If there was no rain, the earth would be barren.
Without the cycle of evporation/rain, all water
on earth would be salt and wed be fish.
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Water, water everywhere
3
18
Water, water everywhere
If there where no replinishment of the fresh
water and groundwater stores, mankind would at
the present level of water withdrawal empty the
fresh surface water store in about 25 yrs.
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Water, water everywhere
20
Water, water everywhere
Water demand tripled between 1950 and 1990. It is
expected to double again in thirty-five years. In
2025 demand is estimated at 7.500 km3, whereas
the annual renewable stock remains at 48.000 km3!
21
Water, water everywhere
Population increase of 70 million people/year on
average between 1950-1990 will increase with 3.6
billion or 90 million/year on average between
1990 and 2030
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Water, water everywhere
23
Water, water everywhere
24
Water, water everywhere

• Water consumption in Belgium
• 745m3/person/year
• 7.5 domestic (56 m3/person/yr), 87 industrial
  use (648 m3/person/yr) and 5.5 (41 m3/person/yr)
  consumption in agriculture
• 60 tap-water, and 40 extracted directly from
  surface and groundwater

25
Water, water everywhere
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Water, water everywhere
27
Water, water everywhere

• Water consumption in Belgium
• 35 is derived from surface water, and 65 from
  groundwater
• process water and water for cooling (10 l water/l
  milk 20 m3 water/ton malt 500 m3 water/ton
  paper 1,300 m3 water/ton aluminum 400 m3
  water/MWh, etc.)
• Water problems in Belgium!
• water availability is slightly declining from
  1,447 m3/person/yr in 1950 to 1,143 m3/person/yr
  in 2050
• consequence of population increase (from 8.6 to
  10.9 million inhabitants) degradation of water
  quality

28
How big is the water crisis?

• More than 1.5 billion people do not have access
  to safe drinking water, and half the worlds
  people do not have access to adequate sanitation
• Situation will be even worse in future because it
  is estimated that the average global level of
  urbanization will increase from 45 today towards
  70 in 2100
• Mexico City, 20 million people, water use exceeds
  renewable supplies by 40. So far, the city has
  survived by pumping groundwater. But the water
  table has been sinking fast and widespread
  subsidence is occurring. Water has to be brought
  from 200 km away or pump it from 3,000 m
  underground!

29
How big is the water crisis?

• Most of the diseases associated with dirty water
  have been virtually eliminated from the mortality
  statistics of developed countries
• In the developing countries, 80 of disease and
  1/3 of all deaths are caused by contaminated
  water, with untreated sewage the major problem.
  In those countries 50,000 people die daily from
  water born diseases ( 1/3 of total daily death
  toll)
• 1/3 of people die from food shortage and mal
  nutrition, and 1/3 of people die in accidents,
  from age, cancer and other diseases

30
How big is the water crisis?

• In 2025 18 countries (Middle East, South Africa,
  and the dryer regions of western and southern
  India and northern China) will have a deficient
  water balance, and the water availability will
  drop below 500 m3/person/year
• 24 countries, mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa, are
  defined as extremely water scarce and include 350
  million people today and are projected to include
  some 900 million in 2025
• In 2025 one-third of the worlds population - 2.7
  billion people - will experience severe water
  scarcity

31
How big is the water crisis?

• Relationship between food production and water
• 40 of the global harvest comes from 17 of the
  worlds cropland under irrigation (/- 250
  million ha, representing a total capital value of
  1.9 trillion)
• In economic terms irrigated lands are probably
  even more important. Shiklomanov (1997) estimates
  that in more than half of the global
  agricultural output comes from irrigated land
• Irrigation is a key factor in stabilizing
  national and regional food and fiber production

GDP 2000 of OECD countries (30 countries) 25.5
trillion
32
How big is the water crisis?

• Using the UN medium projection for population
  growth, under the business-as-usual scenario, 60
  more water will be required for irrigation to
  meet the world food supplies in 2025
• If efficiency is increased, still 13 to 17 more
  water will be needed
• Are estimates realistic?
• Decline in productivity due to water logging and
  salinization Mexico (yield reduction of 1
  million tons of grain per year eq. to feed 5
  million of people), US (25-30 of irrigated area,
  eq. to 5 million ha, is affected by salinity)

33
How big is the water crisis?

• Are estimates realistic?
• Over the last decade the expansion of the area
  under irrigation is in decline due to low
  commodity prices, high investment and energy
  costs, low efficiency, poor maintenance and
  management, unfavorable economic conditions
• Between 1970 and 1980 world-wide investment in
  irrigation development (main irrigation
  infrastructure) exceeded 15 billion/year. Since
  then it decreased gradually, and investments vary
  presently between 8 and 10 billion/year (World
  Bank/UNDP)

34
How big is the water crisis?

• Are estimates realistic?
• It is expected that the investment rate will
  continue to drop, reaching a level of the order
  of magnitude of 5 to 6 billion/year
• To reach in 2100 an estimated area of 350 million
  ha (eq. with an increase of 40) requires an
  estimated investment for the main infrastructure
  of gt1,250 billion, roughly gt12.5 billion/year

35
How big is the water crisis?

• In conclusion
• In 2025 many of the water scarce countries will
  need to produce more than twice their existing
  water supplies
• This means embarking on large and expensive
  water-development projects, which many will not
  be able to finance
• Water scarcity is already a major destabilizing
  force within countries because different sectors
  of the economy are vying for the same water
  resources

36
How big is the water crisis?

• Within the next 25 years there is great potential
  for more water conflict not just within countries
  but between them
• International conflicts linked to water disputes
  (20th century)
• 1948 India and Pakistan (Indus river basin)
• 1951-53 Israel and Syria (Jordan river basin)
• 1958 Egypt and Sudan (Nile river basin)
• 1963-64 Ethiopia and Somalia (Ogaden desert)
• 1965-66 Israel and Syria (Jordan river basin)
• 1975 Iraq and Syria (Euphrates river basin)
• 1989-91 Mauritania and Senegal (Senegal river
  basin)

37
How big is the water crisis?
Israel, Jordan and Palestine are running up water
deficits to meet current demands. The 3 countries
will be running a water deficit of 1-2 billion m3
a year by 2020!
38
How big is the water crisis?
Conflicts occur even in Europe, where the sharing
of water is regulated by 175 international
treaties. In many other countries agreements are
often ill defined or non-existent. Whereas in
most of the developing countries disputes are
centerred around water quantity, in the
industrialized countries the cause of dispute is
water quality. This is particularly the case in
Europe where the Danube flows through 12 and the
Rhine through 8 countries. The Rhine is the
source of drinking water for 12 million people.
Riparian discharges from sewage works and
factories have been the subject of bitter
disputes between countries!
39
Raising global political awareness
1965 International Hydrological Decade (IHD,
1965-1974) 1972 UN Conf. on the Human
Environment in Stockholm, Sweden (start of the
UNEP) 1972 The limits of growth (Meadows et
al.) 1977 UN Water Conference in Mar del Plata,
Argentina 1981-1990 International Drinking Water
Supply and Sanitation Decade (objective full
access to water supply and sanitation for all
inhabitants of developing countries)!!! 1987 UN
report Our Common Future (WCED) 1992 Int. Conf.
On Water and the Environùment (ICWE), Dublin,
Ireland
40
Raising global political awareness
1992 UN Conf. on Environment and Development
(UNCED) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, which produced
Agenda 21 2000 UN Conference on water in the
Hague, the Netherlands Will those meetings and
similar initiatives ultimately result in a
reliable and equitable water distribution and an
efficient use of water? Will those meetings
remove the source of political friction which
eventually spark new wars?
41
Raising global political awareness
42
Sceptic for the future ..!
Despite the push to fight hunger globally,
efforts are falling short of the goals set out
during the World Food Summit in 1996, when the
international community pledged to cut the number
of hungry in half by 2015. Today, the number is
falling by six million per year, well below the
average rate of 20 million needed to reach the
target. Rome, 19 July 2001.- "Will the world
continue to watch the hungry people of the world
die silently?" said Jacques Diouf,
Director-General of the UN Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO), in a news conference prior to
his meeting with the G8 in Genoa.
43
Sceptic for the future ..!
Dr. Diouf called on all concerned, particularly
the G8 countries, to contribute to a Trust Fund
for Food Security with an initial amount of 500
million to support agriculture in developing
countries. "This amount is necessary to
accelerate the process towards the goal set by
the 1996 World Food Summit --cutting by half the
number of hungry by 2015," he said. According to
FAO the food gap is widening and 1 in 4 children
worldwide will be malnourished in 2020.
44
Sceptic for the future ..!

• 500 million is not a large amount." He observed
  that the total lending to agriculture and rural
  development by the World Bank and Regional
  Financial Institutions amounted to 3.5 billion
  in 1999 while OECD countries spent around 361
  billion over the same period on supporting their
  farmers

45
Sceptic for the future ..!
46
Sceptic for the future ..!
47
Sceptic for the future ..!
Cost of desalinisation plant for a community of
100,000 inhabitants
48
Sceptic for the future ..!
49
Sceptic for the future ..!
"The poor and the developing countries are tired
of declarations that are not followed by action.
Resources from donors and major financial
institutions have been dwindling over the last
five years!
50
Sceptic for the future ..!
There is enough money and knowledge to foresee
every human being today and in the future with
fresh water and adequate sanitation, however
. In the meantime watertables are dropping
worldwide because of overpumping. Mexico City is
sinking and the watertable in Beijing is dropping
by several metres a year, .. we continue
polluting rivers and lakes to the point where the
water is no longer drinkable, .. not longer
usable by fish, animals, plants ..
51
My premise ..!

• We have enough
• We just need to look after it better

52
Myth 1 ..!

• Only take what you can replace
• If you live in Europe this is fine
• If you live in Saudi Arabia or Libya?

53
Myth 2 ..!

• Water is consumed by people, industry,agriculture
  and the environment
• People and industry only borrow it
• Agriculture and the environment consume water in
  large quantities

54
Myth 3 ..!

• Water is lost through misuse or leakage

55
The toilet myth ..!

• Save water by reducing the flush

56
The toilet myth ..!
5 litres
river
Water treatment
5 litres
57
Lessons learnt ..!

• Water is not lost
• We just borrow it and then return it
• We can borrow it many times
• But we need to clean it up

58
The irrigation myth ..!
Farmers can save water by using it more
efficiently
59
The irrigation myth ..!
1000 units of water
Farms operate at 50 efficiency
500
River basin efficiency is now 50
60
The irrigation myth ..!
1000 units of water
Farms operate at 50 efficiency
500
500
250
250
River basin efficiency is now 75
61
The irrigation myth ..!
1000 units of water
Farms operate at 50 efficiency
500
500
250
250
125
125
River basin efficiency is now 87.5
62
The irrigation myth ..!
1000 units of water
500
500
Farm efficiency to 100
500
River basin efficiency is now 50
63
The irrigation myth ..!
1000 units of water
500
Farm efficiency is 100
500
500
250
250
River basin efficiency is now 75
64
The irrigation myth ..!
1000 units of water
500
Farm efficiency is 100
500
500
250
125
250
125
River basin efficiency is now 87.5
65
Lessons learnt ..!

• Efficiency of individual farms is not so
  important
• Efficiency of whole river basin is important
• Water is not lost unless it flows into sea
• Should we worry so much about leakage?

66
Lessons learnt ..!

• We must have water to grow crops.
• A problem for dry countries?
• Why not import water?

1000t water
1t grain
67
Lessons learnt ..!

• We must have water to grow crops.
• A problem for dry countries?
• Why not import water?
• Import grain instead

1000t water
1t grain
68
Lessons learnt ..!

• We have enough
• We just need to look after it better

69
Lessons learnt ..!
70
Lessons learnt ..!

• Demand for water is escalating, contributing to
  intensified competition among users. In many
  areas, giving water to one user means denying it
  to another.
• It lies well within current technical,
  institutional and financial capacities to make
  water available to every human being and to equip
  every community with the necessary sanitation
  facilities. However, ...........