Hazards and Vulnerability for the population on the

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Hazards and Vulnerability for the population on
the Brazilian Coast Sea Level Rise and Reasons
for Concern
Roberto Luiz do Carmo Andrea Ferraz Young
Universidade Estadual de Campinas Departamento de
Demografia Núcleo de Estudos de População
The 4th International Conference on Population
Geographies The Chinese University of Hong Kong -
July 10/13, 2007
Recife, PE
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• Objectives
• Identify the possible impacts of sea level
  rising for the Brazilian population leaving on
  coastal zone
• how many people leaving on the coast?
• life conditions
• environmental characteristics
• vulnerability

Juréia, SP
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• Methodology
• GIS system
• demographic information Census Data
• life conditions and environment Census Data and
  HDI (municipal level, supported by UNDP)
• - Digital maps IBGE (Brazilian Census Bureau)

Juréia, SP
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• Remarks
• Relationships between population and
  environment
• administrative X environmental regionalization
• Scales
• time
• spatial references and capture of information

Juréia, SP
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Vulnerability
vulnerability cannot be directly measured, but
estimated through a group of socioeconomic and
environmental variables. Vulnerability refers to
a certain type of risk and region. It is the
result of the relationship of a series of
circumstantial factors of a quantitative and
qualitative order (Peduzzi et al., 2001).
Santos, SP
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• Vulnerability Project (NEPO/UNICAMP)
• the ability to respond to these risks (which may
  be of very different kinds, relating to social
  and economic situations in addition to the
  environmental ones) is fundamental to understand
  the different contexts resulting from risk
  exposure. The ability to respond has been
  considered as vulnerability
• - the ability (or inability) of a social group to
  mobilize a given asset group implies that this
  group may be more or less vulnerable to a certain
  risk (or group of risks)

Santos, SP
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• In terms of mobilizable assets, Kaztman et al.
  (1999) suggest the following classification
• Physical Capital involving all the essential
  means for the pursuit of well-being. These could
  be further divided into the Physical Capital
  itself (housing, land, machinery, animals,
  relevant durable goods for social reproduction)
  or the Financial Capital, whose characteristics
  are high liquidity and multifunctionality,
  involving savings and credit as well as forms of
  insurance and protection
• Human Capital including work as the main asset
  plus the value added to it through investments in
  health and education, which would imply in
  greater or lesser physical capacity for work,
  qualifications and so on
• - Social Capital including the networks of
  reciprocity, trust, contacts and access to
  information. In the authors words it would be
  the least alienable of all the types of capital,
  whose use strongly overlaps and is limited by the
  very network of relationships that defines this
  form of capital

Santos, SP
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The Geographic Information System

• 477 seaside municipalities (5.562 total Brazil)
• 34,3 million people in the year 2000 (20 km
  buffer)

Ubatuba,SP
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Ubatuba,SP
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Ubatuba,SP
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Juréia, SP
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Recife, PE
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Marajó, PA
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Some Results by Regions
Categories differences by size
Recife, PE
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Population leaving in the 20km buffer
João Pessoa, PA
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Roberto Luiz do Carmo
roberto_at_nepo.unicamp.br
Marajó, PA
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João Pessoa, PA
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João Pessoa, PA
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Marajó, PA
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Marajó, PA