Preparing for QE1 Politics and Psychology

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Preparing for QE1 Politics and Psychology

• Richard C. Johnson
• May 3, 2006

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Outline

• Review of Key Politics and Psychology Concepts
• Application of Concepts to 2002 QE1 on ANWR
  Drilling
• Questions and Comments

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Reminder Come in with a Plan

• The background materials will give you a good
  idea of what the topic will be
• Worthwhile to ponder likely questions
• For example, poll related question in psychology,
  interests/coalition question in politics
• Use reading day to map key isuses out in your
  mind and on paper

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Know Your Strengths and Structure Your Time

• Richards suggestions (by no means the only way
  to go)
• Start with statistics often reveals key
  information for other sections
• Move to politics and psych if you put off until
  the end, you may run out of time to answer
  completely
• Spend the afternoon wracking your brain on
  economics

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Key Politics Concepts

• The Four Is
• Interests
• Electoral, policy, moral?
• Institutions
• Senate rules (filibuster), bureaucracy, culture
• Ideology
• Personal beliefs, partisanship
• Information
• Does complete information exist? Sources?

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Other Things to Remember

• Role of leadership
• Bureaucracy turf wars, culture
• Markets vs. Governments
• Elections and Electoral Politics
• Types of Interest Groups strength and importance

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Identify Key Interest Groups and Coalitions

• Background material should provide sufficient
  info on issue
• Explain both sides of issue
• Identify groups associated with pro and con,
  describe winners and losers
• Note relative strengths of each group and
  connection to your policymaker
• Point out strange bedfellows and potential
  divisions in policymakers base constituency

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Making a Recommendation

• Does the question ask for a policy
  recommendation?
• Be CLEAR and SPECIFIC
• Moderation is usually best
• Explain why recommendation is best from both a
  policy and political perspective

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Second Question IR?

• Again, key info from background materials
• Realism vs. liberalism
• Multilateral vs. unilateral
• Role of domestic public opinion in international
  relations

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Key Psychology Concepts

• Power of the Situation
• Prospect Theory
• Valuing losses greater than gains
• Framing
• Bounded Rationality
• Discounting (Myopia)
• Biases and Heuristics
• E.g. availability, representative, anchoring

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More Psych Concepts

• Status Quo Biases
• Uncertainty
• Choices
• Procedural Justice
• Groupthink social proof
• Influence
• Social diffusion
• Channel factors
• Personal endorsements/credibility/authority

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Polling Methodology Question

• Q What do poll results tell us about attitudes
  toward policy?
• A How is the question framed?
• Is there information in the question that could
  affect the response?
• Availability heuristic, choices
• A Is the issue salient? Do people have strong
  opinions?

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Polling Methodology Question

• A What is the sample makeup? Are different polls
  using different samples?
• How is issue framed?
• As a loss
• As a gain
• What is more effective?

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Framing/Implementation Question

• Prospect theory loss aversion
• Weighting losses more than gains
• Framing as loss more effective
• Status quo bias
• What is the anchor?

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Framing/Implementation Question

• Myopia/Discounting
• Do people really think long term or short term?
• How can you influence people to make good
  decisions in the long term based on short term
  effects?
• Group Dynamics?
• Social Diffusion
• Channel Factors
• Procedural Justice

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2002 QE1 Politics (8)

• unusual coalitions
• Pro conservatives, GOP, Alaskans, oil/gas
  companies, auto industry,
• Role of organized labor
• strange bedfellows effect
• Mixed depending on union
• Con Dems, travel industry, enrivos

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2002 QE1 Politics (8)

• Congressional elections
• Democrats
• Dems will link to special interests (Enron)
• Focus on negative enviro impact
• Labor split will hurt Dems
• Republicans
• Focus on national security
• Gas prices
• Job Creation
• Diffused impact stronger in some areas/races
  than others
• Current events could impact (MidEast, gas prices)

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2001 QE1 Politics (7)

• Mostly from background readings
• 1970s MidEast is not todays MidEast
• US imports more diverse (Russia/Canada)
• Not as wealthy, need to maintain domestic
  stability
• Domestic opinion in Arab states
• More complex that Khalilzad implies in transcript

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2002 QE1 Psych (5)

• Earlier NYT poll had more with knowledge of ANWR
  than later Gallup poll
• Suggests weak interests or knowledge
• NYT poll references conservation
• NYT has more opposed to drilling
• Gallup, more neutral, shows support but also lack
  of knowledge
• Implies answer based on framing of question
• Hard to tell exact attitudes from polls

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2002 QE1 Psych (5)

• Status quo bias
• Could emphasize that oil was eventually going to
  be drilled (loss less severe)
• Cost of not drilling is increased gas prices,
  market and political instability
• National security could worsen
• Group dynamics identify with supportive
  Alaskans

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2002 QE1 Psych (6)

• People heavily discount future
• Out-of-pocket costs of fuel efficient car deter
  purchase in short run despite long term benefits
• Overcome this by
• Using personal accounts
• Social diffusion/group solidarity
• Make impact immediate (HOV lane?)
• Personal endorsements/authority figure

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Good luck!

• Questions?