Early Warning Systems: Climate Change and Earthquakes

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Early Warning SystemsClimate Change and
Earthquakes

• Mohamed El Raey
• University of Alexandria
• And
• CEDARE

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Objectives of Early Warning

• To be better prepared to face challenges of
  the risk of long term or sudden disasters by
• Avoiding and reducing damages and loss
• Saving human lives, health , economic development
  and cultural heritage
• Upgrading quality of life, public and
  international image

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Intervention Phases

• Prevention
• Preparedness
• Mitigation
• Response
• Recovery

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Climate Change

• Increasing rates of emission of Greenhouse gases
  have led to a measurable global average
  temperature increase ( a global phenomena with
  local impacts)
• This is expected to lead to sea level rise,
  impact on water resources, impact on food
  productivity, and increased rates of dust and sea
  storms (all sectors of development for all
  countries will be affected at varying magnitudes)
• Uncertainties of the phenomena have been removed.
  The only uncertainties that may exist is of
  magnitudes and time frames.
• Action (governments, communities and individuals)
  is needed as early as possible so as to minimize
  future impacts. Any delays means extra losses

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Investigate Environment A coastal area in Egypt
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Satellite classification of Land use of Alexandria
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Digital Elevation Model of Alexandria
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Land use losses in Alexandria City
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Dust storms in the Red Sea
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Heavy investment on low areas in Bahrain
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Stern Report

• The scientific evidence is now overwhelming
  climate change presents very serious global
  risks, and it demands an urgent global response.
• Climate change presents a unique challenge for
  economics it is the greatest and widest-ranging
  market failure ever seen.
• From all of these perspectives, the evidence
  gathered by the Review leads to a simple
  conclusion the benefits of strong, early action
  considerably outweigh the costs.
• The impacts of climate change are not evenly
  distributed - the poorest countries and people
  will suffer earliest and most. And if and when
  the damages appear it will be too late to reverse
  the process. Thus we are forced to look a long
  way ahead.

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Needs for a National Strategy

• Build up an inventory and identify indicators of
  changes
• Build up a geo-data base and vulnerability
  assessments (locations, sectors, severity, life,
  health and economic losses)
• Set criteria for Indicators of performance and
  efficiency of Early Warning Systems
• Identify and assess options for proactive
  adaptation
• Disseminate Information and upgrade awareness and
  enforce policy

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Earthquakes
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Satellite Detection of Heat Stresses(days before
earthquakes)
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Topside sounders Seismo-ionospheric
couplingCompas-Vulcan program
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Early Warning Systems for Earthquakes
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Examples of comparison of daily variations of
foF2 (points) with their monthly median values
(stroke), three days before and one day after the
earthquake. By the data ofground-based
stations of vertical sounding for various
earthquakes 1-Milkovo (5.09.1971,18.35 UT,
M7.2,) 2-Rome (23.11.1980, 18.34 UT, M6.7)
3-Norfolk (19.06.1980,08.34 UT, M6.4)
4-Vanimo (16.07.1980, 05.26 UT, M7.3)
5-Norfolk (14.07.1980,16.15 UT, M6.6). Arrows
specify the moments of earthquakes
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SPACE GROUND SEGMENT CONCEPT
ALTITUDE 1000 km
ALTITUDE 500 km, SSO

ALTITUDE 500 km, i79







DATA PROCESSING CENTER COORDINATING AND
ANALITICAL CENTER
STATE CENTER FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTIONS
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Conclusions

• Early Warning Systems (EWS) are necessary for
  minimizing risks of global and local hazards by
  taking decisions in the proper time
• Building inventories, identifying and monitoring
  indicators and assessing environmental conditions
  are prerequisites for vulnerability assessments
• Satellite systems provide important information
  source for EWS. The technology is improving on
  daily basis. However, ground monitoring may prove
  effective in some cases. Research is required
• Responsibilities of establishing EWS is shared
  among NGO, governments, communities and
  individuals