IPCC WORKING GROUP II Special Meeting

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IPCC WORKING GROUP II Special MeetingExtreme
Events and Disasters Managing the
RisksRemarks by FJMcDonald, UWI ISDSession 4
Risk Management Adaptation and Disaster
PreparednessDisaster Management and Emergency
Preparedness
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Natural hazards in the CaribbeanFrom Munich Re,
2002.
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Overview

• There is significant convergence and synergy
  between current initiatives to address disaster
  related capacity, sustainability challenges and
  climate change adaptation.
• Managing risk, coping with disasters and shifting
  to sustainable paths to development are
  significant societal, economic and cultural
  challenges by themselves,
• Climate change risks complicate the planning
  implementation of risk, crisis focussed and
  sustainability agendas and active facilitation is
  required

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• Natural Hazard / Risk Reserach resources and
  networks exists and have developed significant
  insights and a valuable knowledge base into human
  / societal response to natural hazard exposure
  and coping mechanism.
• Research, expanding knowledge networks, capacity
  building is required at all levels
• Human coping with risks go beyond the range of
  climate change (eg seismic hazards)

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• Disaster/Emergency management agenda is
  influenced by a response / relief focus and
  regarded by some as REACTIVE
• Risk reduction / climate change adaptation and
  resilience building requires a PROACTIVE focus
  and the ability to engage the planning /
  development communitty without alienating the
  emergency management stakeholders.
• Bridging / uniting these cultures require
  sensitive joined up action and structured plans

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Effective coping systems

• Risk Sensitisation / Early Warning /
  Vulnerability Awareness / Capacity Building
  systems involves chains of actors / processes
• Narrow technical conceptions of such systems
  leave weak links in the chain where failures
  occur (eg Warning System failures in
  Haiti/Grenada?2004, S AsiaTsunami 2004, TONGA
  2006)?
• Mainstreamed infused into education and
  culture as well as the business and livelihood
  related societal value systems.

Knowledge and capacity for timely action (pre,
during, post) threat at appropriate levels
Technical awareness , zoning, safer built env
monitoring Alert / Warng Services
Shared Societal Knowledge of the risks faced by
Communities Risk Culture
Wide Formal and Informal Diffusion/ Dissemination
of Useable risk info products
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Developing / Evolving Risk Averse Long Term
Focussed Culture (nb High Social Science role
And interdependency!)
4 Policy, Laws Implemen - tation
3 Logic Analysis Invest in research/study
2 Rhetoric - Advocacy
5 Mainstream via Culture Enforcement Pvt
Public Civil Society consensus
1 Inception Public outcry (After crisis,
impact, incident\ of disaster)
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Global Hotspot study (World Bank)?
lowest 40 middle 30 highest 20
25 million km sq. and 3.4 billion people are
relatively highly exposed to at least one natural
hazard 105 million people are relatively highly
exposed to three or more hazards.
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Next 15 20 Years

• Linkages to Development Targets better
  understood and acted upon
• SUSTAINABILITY Links
• National Goals Priority Setting
• Global / Regional / National / Subnational /
  Sectoral Capacity Building
• MAINSTREAMING
• Emergence/ USE of ISO Standards on RISK
  MANAGEMENT and Business Continuity

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TOOLS/MODALITIES

• Guidance on developing effective National Focal
  Mechanisms / HFA Platforms
• Active facilitation of the HFA platorms or their
  equivalents to effectively achieve the 2015
  targets
• Scaling up and down between the local, sub
  national, national, regional and global risk and
  adaptation agendas
• Learning lessons from the MEA's and applying them
  to the Risk and Adaptation agenda

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SIDS

• SIDS have developed through the BPOA and
  Mauritius Strategy a variety of modalities
  linking sustainability, risk and climate actions
• The Report on Extremes can facilitate further
  action on the special challenges facing the SIDS
• Capacity challenges facing SIDS are a particular
  case of very high Social, Economic and
  Evironmental vulnerability

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Coping Processes must

• Cover credible events, scenarios and futures,
  their mitigation and their potential
  consequence(s)?
• Large, medium and small scale
• Natural / Man induced / High / Low Probability
• Effects on Human, Natural, Social and Economic
  Capital Assets and systems
• Adequately deal with all facets of RISK
• Cover all phases including return to normalcy
• Be part of MAINSTREAM / CORE Functions of all
  Societal Stakeholders ie The State Private
  Civil Society in genuine PARTNERSHIPS

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Converging Sustainable Development / MGD / Risk
related issues

• Exposure in SIDS / Wider Caribbean Region to a
  range of hazards negative trends etc
• Urgent need to further develop the traditional
  coping capacities and mainstream risk reduction
  strategies
• Shift from Reactive to Proactive Measures and
  consider scientifically credible Extremes / Worst
  Cases
• Improve societal / sectoral Resilience
• Desire for 'Sustainable' Development and
• Many Recommendations of key regional and global
  Fora, Conferences and Seminars over the past
  decade which are documented

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Catastrophic Disaster Planning

• Federal Emergency Management Agency

Fiscal Year 2007
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Catastrophic Disaster Planning Partnerships to
Meet the Challenge

• Federal, State, local and Tribal partnership
• DHS components
• FEMA HQ and Regions
• State Emergency Management Agencies
• Other State agencies
• Federal and Sector Specific Agencies (CI/KR)
• Emergency Management Assistance Compact (EMAC)
• Business, Industry and Voluntary Organizations
• Academia

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Catastrophic Disaster Planning Approach to the
Challenge

• Scenario-Driven Catastrophic Planning
• Combines planning and exercise phases
• Includes operational and planning personnel
• Incorporates wide range of site-specific
  scenarios
• Built on scenario-driven workshops
• Produces functional plans ready for immediate use
• Addresses jurisdictional conflicts
• Can be exercised rapidly after development
• Unified Response
• Approach integrates Private Sector, Critical
  Infrastructure, and Emergency Management
  communities into a single, coordinated response
  with Federal, State, Tribal Nations and other
  governmental entities

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California Catastrophic Disaster Planning The
Response Challenges

• Major impact to large metropolitan areas
• Consequences would eclipse Katrina
• Large area of impact - 155,959 Sq. Miles
• Highly populated areas - 36M
• Significant earthquake risk throughout State
• Tsunami risk
• Mass Evacuation
• Significant infrastructure impacts
• Response problems due to roadway
  collapse/blockage
• Estimated building loss -- gt 69B

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"Climate change is expected to cause more severe
and more frequent natural hazards. As our cities
and coasts grow more vulnerable, these hazards
can lead to disasters that are far worse than
those we have seen to date. We have a moral,
social and economic obligation to build
resilience by 2015. Implementing the Hyogo
Framework for Action will also help us reach the
Millennium Development Goals."
Ban Ki-moon, Secretary-General of the United
Nations, 2007
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Thank-you Gracias Merci