Counterinsurgency Models

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Counterinsurgency Models

• Alternative Strategies
• Contingent Government Response

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Announcements

• Final Exam Guide Available Online
• 10 matching/multiple choice (10 min)
• Two of three essays (40 min each)
• Final Paper Due Friday
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Overview Key Questions

• What is the best way to defeat an insurgency or
  terrorist organization?
• What can we learn from failed and successful
  counterinsurgency operations in the past?

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Overview

• I. Competing models of counterinsurgency
• A. Destroying the enemy
• Overwhelming force to defeat insurgent forces
• Destroying leadership
• B. Winning the support of the population
• II. Contingent Government Response
• Wed International politics counterinsurgency
• Tools of international politics
• State Building

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I. Competing models of counterinsurgency

• Ultimate goal of counterinsurgency operations is
  the same
• Reducing or illuminating the security threat
  posed by insurgents
• Three methods of achieving this goal
• 1. Destroy military capabilities of insurgency
  (annihilation)
• 2. Destroy leadership of insurgency
• 3. Destroy popular support for insurgency win
  hearts and minds

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I. Competing models of counterinsurgency

• Examples of success of each method
• 1. Destroy military capabilities of insurgency
  (annihilation)
• Union Armys Defeat of Confederate Army
• Saddam Husseins Campaign against the Marsh Arabs
• 2. Destroy leadership of insurgency
• Assassination of UNITA leader Joseph Savimbi
• French campaign against FLN in Algeria (1960s).
• 3. Destroy popular support for insurgency
• British campaign during the Malayan Emergency

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I. Competing models of counterinsurgency

• Examples of failures of each method
• 1. Destroy military capabilities of insurgency
  (annihilation)
• U.S. operations during Vietnam
• 2. Destroy leadership of insurgency
• French campaign against FLN in Algeria (1960s)
  movement resurfaced, Algeria gained independence
• Iraq (Al Qeada in Iraq and Baathist)
• 3. Destroy popular support for insurgency
• Afghanistan?

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II. Contingent Government Response

• Bard ONeil pursue goals 2 and 3, with emphasis
  depending on the type of organization (goals,
  size, strategy, etc)
• The smaller the movement, the greater the
  emphasis on leadership
• The larger the movement, the more emphasis on
  controlling territory, protecting, and winning
  support of population

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II. Contingent Government Response

• Understand goals and make-up of
  insurgents/terrorists
• Is accommodation a viable strategy?
• Can some factions of a resistance be
  accommodated, foment discord
• E.G. Sunni Insurgents and al Qaeda in Iraq
• Increases efficacy of propaganda information
  campaigns
• Question credibility of leadership. E.G. Islamic
  scholars speaking out against goals, tactics of
  al Qaeda, Taliban

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II. Contingent Government Response

• Understand goals and make-up of
  insurgents/terrorists
• Identify differences in goals between leaders and
  ordinary members/population.
• All Politics is Local national issues may be
  of relatively little interest in key areas.

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II. Contingent Government Response

• General principles
• Protect the local population
• Avoid civilian casualties, avoid being provoked
• Apprehend combatants rather than kill them
• Information from apprehended combatants is
  critical to understanding organization
• Control militias
• British police eventually controlled protestant
  militants.
• In 1970s Israeli police cracked down on vigilante
  justice.

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III. Contingent Government Response
International dimensions

• What about external support?
• What if the local government is corrupt or weak?
  (Unwilling or incapable of providing law and
  order, basic services).