Could Al Qaeda Win

1
Could Al Qaeda Win?

• Dan Plesch
• Strategic Studies Course
• UK Armed Forces
• University of Cambridge

2
Dan Plesch

• Author of The Beauty Queens Guide to World
  Peace
  
• www.danplesch.net
• www.amazon.com

3
AQ Objectives

• Get Crusaders and Zionists out of Saudi Arabia
  other Islamic areas
  
• Unite the Umma-Overthrow Apostates
• Repeat the triumphs of the C7th AD
• - defeating America

4
Conventional wisdom

• Downplays risks from those that dream of the C7th
  
  

Downplays risks from Bush and Sharon
5
Declaration of War 1996

• Today your brothers and sons, the sons of the
  two Holy Places, have started their Jihad in the
  cause of Allah, to expel the occupying enemy out
  of the country of the two Holy places in order
  to re-establish the greatness of this Ummah and
  to liberate its' occupied sanctities.
• Due to the imbalance of power between our armed
  forces and the enemy forces, a suitable means of
  fighting must be adopted using fast moving light
  forces that work under complete secrecy. In other
  word to initiate a guerrilla warfare, where the
  sons of the nation, and not the military forces,
  take part in it.

6
Questioning the Question?

• Looking at how things look from the other side of
  the hill is simple good practice
  
• But, it seems incredible to think about
• Seems a disloyal question

7
A conundrum

• US/UK say threat like WW2 or Cold War
• US/UK routinely described scenarios for Soviet
  victory
  
• We are offered no such analysis of AQ

8
Implications of not being able to look over the
hill?

• A systemic failure of organisational culture?

• Why cant we look Over the Hill?
• Is there something nasty in our woodshed?

9
Empathy and Sympathy

• Empathy is essential to understanding adversary
• Do not confuse EMPATHY with SYMPATHY for aims,
  objectives, ideology

10
Todays radical Islamists look back

11
Overcoming domination

• Radical Islam sees the West in direct occupation
  or control of most of the Islamic world
  
• A trend since 1600, accelerated in 1900s
• Corrupt elites, poverty and military repression
  seen as imposed by the West
  

12
What is AQ?

• Corporation? Network?
• A Vanguard Party building mass support
• Manchester United supporters as a model of
  Radical Islam
  
• Some professionals
• Some fulltime marketing people
• Many who dream of playing
• They dont need to be told when to cheer

13
One Western Empire down

• Reagan and Thatcher themselves praised the
  Mujahideen for helping bring down Communism
  
• Their role in destroying communism provides a
  powerful example of success to radical
  Islamists-not usually included in Western
  analysis of failure of modern Islam
• Comparison to C7th USSRPersia USByzantium

14
Al Qaedas cost benefit analysis

• 9/11 sacrifice 4 or 5 special forces teams

• 600 billion damage
• Transform international political agenda
• From Zero to Hero with large part of world
  population

15
AQ Cost/benefit analysis

• Attacks in 3rd world.
• Turkey
• Indonesia
• Kenya
• Morocco
• Tunisia
• Obviously inhuman attacks on innocents Also..

16
3rd World attacks

• Show global reach
• Attack apostates and Christians
• Destroy decadent tourism in oceans of poverty
• Force withdrawal of Western flights, business,
  tourism,
  
• Further pressure economy of apostates
• Begin to create destabilised societies more open
  to support AQ ideology

17
Geo-strategic nature of AQ attacks

• For cost of small special forces units
• Achieve strategic advance in key countries
• Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, Iraq
• Create repressive environment in which AQ can
  thrive and gain support

18
Troops Out?

• US forces have apparently left Saudi Arabia?
• The blasphemy of their presence was the stated
  casus belli.
  
• Withdrawal is a sign of victory and an indicator
  that more victories may come though we might
  like to see it as a prudent and conciliatory
  measure
• Saudi-Guerrilla War/Civil War?

19
Summary of victories to date

• 9/11- Geostrategic economic and political
  success
  
• 3rd World attacks drive out Western links, draw
  peoples towards AQ thinking
  
• US forced out of Saudi-Now Western staff
• US/allies in two hard-to-win or no-win ground
  wars
  
• West divided-will splits increase?
• Western relations with Turkey, Saudi, Iraq now
  far less stable
  
• AQ inside US/UK decision making has initiative

20
Limitations

• No Rising in the Arab street
• Strong internal divisions in movements Is Islam
  any more unified and fundamentalist than
  Christianity?
  
• Strong distate for violent/puritanical/sectarian
  approach
  

21
Elements of Effective Strategy

• British Army DoctrineKitson A check list
• Coordinate policy X
• Address Grievance X
• Keep to Rule of Law X
• Establish Good political climate X
• Strengthen home base X
• Deny enemy base X
• Build Good intelligence X
• Recognise there is no military solution X

22
Playing into AQs hands

• Quantanamo/Abu Ghraib-abandoning Rule of
  Law-weakening legitimacy
  
• Bad Political environment
• endorsing repression of Islam
  globally-Israel/Phil/Indon/Uzb/
  
• weakened alliance with Europe
• declining democratic participation
• No secure base-AQ recruits and lives in West
• Poor Intell and Intell co-operation

23
West marches into traps?

• Rumsfeld now says that Iraq and Afghanistan will
  be long, hard slogs.
  
• (George Marshall recommended the US not get into
  a ground war in Asia)
  
• Americans now looking vulnerable and being killed
  each day, Saddam fall a bonus, Wahhabism
  recruiting hard
  
• 50 of US forces pinned and hard to extract
• New US Divisions take 3yrs to build and cost
  1.8bn p.a

24
High-Tech Low-tech Warfare
15 MEU crossing border
Moving Target Indication night 20 Mar 03
25
Low tech IED
26
The opportunity now for the Base

• The radicalisation of the Islamic public and the
  overthrow of the corrupt military regimes offers
  the prospect of crippling Western power.
  

27
Risk is Political Instability and Regime Change

• The rise of a new generation of Col Nassers
  with a strong religious motivation, born of the
  humiliation of the Muslim world is a spectre from
  Ankara to Jakarta

28
Brookings study

• The worse case
• Partial cut off from Muslim suppliers
• 75 per barrel
• inflation up by 5

• The worst case
• Total cut off from Muslim suppliers
• 161 per barrel
• Inflation up 15

The War on Terrorism, the World Oil Market and
the U.S. Economy, October 24, 2001 George
Perry, Senior Fellow, Economic Studies

29
Worst case template

• The historical worst case battle is the battle of
  Cannae Zulu tactic of bulls horns
  
• 1. Lure enemy onto your ground
• 2. Pin his main forces
• 3. Encircle and annihilate

30
A geostrategic Cannae on the West?

• 1. Lure enemy onto your ground
• The provocation of 9/11
• 2. Pin his main forces
• The response of repression
• Ground wars unwinnable
• 3. Encircle and annihilate
• Control/Cut off oil by controlling supplier
  states and sabotaging choke points Gulf states,
  Indonesia, Libya, Sudan, Algeria most major
  suppliers Islamic importers EU,US, Jap
• Pak Nukes
• Repression/civil disorder in W Europe

31
Timing?

• Likelihood is that long hard slog means
  attackers will continue to have initiative
  
• Additional perceived repressive acts will tend to
  increase support.
  
• Any single regime change may have knock on
  effects. civil war in Saudi.

32
(No Transcript)