Elections: The Sovereignty of the People

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Elections The Sovereignty of the People
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Purpose of Elections

• Popular Sovereignty

• Question Will holding an election guarantee
  that the best persons get in office?
• Answer Of course not.

• Not to reveal publics policy preferences.
• A public cannot have a preference.
• Only individuals can have a preference.

• Not to get good government.

• Prevent Tyranny

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How People Decide

• Retrospective How has this incumbent been
  doing?
• Prospective How do I think this candidate will
  do?
• Heuristics Cognitive shortcut
• The Economy Presidential Re-election can often
  be predicted by the state of the economy.

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Who votes?
Source GSS 2002

• 1789-1830s Mostly white male property owners.
• 1830s-1860s All white males.
• 1870 15th Amdt.The right of citizensto vote
  shall not be deniedon account of race
• But in fact it was, for the next century.
• 1920 19th Amdt.The right of citizensto vote
  shall not be deniedon account of sex.
• 1965 Voting Rights Act.
• 15th Amdt. Said, The Congress shall have power
  to enforce this article by appropriate
  legislation.
• So after 95 years, Congress finally did!

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Why Dont People Vote?

• What are the odds that your vote will make the
  difference?
• The personal benefits are low.
• Many feel low sense of efficacy, think it doesnt
  matter if they vote.
• Voting is costly.
• Time energy paying attention getting to the
  polls before or after work.
• Too many elections!!
• Most systems you vote once every few years.
• Here we vote more than once a year!

• For many, the costs seem to outweigh the
  benefits.
• How could we get more people to vote?

• Or
• Does
• it?

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Electoral College

• Senators Representatives Electors.
• 2 15 17 electors.
• 538 total Senators Reps 3 for D.C.
• Majority needed to win 270

• We do not vote directly for the Presidential
  candidate!
• Article II Each state shall appoint, in such
  Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a
  Number of Electors
• Every state now allows the citizens to select the
  electors, but you do not have a constitutional
  right to vote for presidential candidates.

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Electoral College

• Because small states slightly overrepresented, a
  minority of the U.S. population a (small)
  majority of the electoral vote.
• So it is mathematically possible for a candidate
  with a minority of the popular vote to win.
• 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000.