Title: National Association of Realtors
1National Association of RealtorsStrategic
Planning Committee MeetingJanuary 30,
2008Jef KinneyFannie Mae
2The Rate of MDO is Moderating
3Foreclosures Continue to Increase
4Percent Subprime Lending By County
5Delinquencies Continue to Climb
6Delinquencies Subprime vs. Prime / ARM vs. FRM
7Delinquencies Vary by Geography
8Housing Market Cycles- National
Source Business Analysis Decisions
Home prices have historically given up much of
their inflation-adjusted growth after a boom.
9Housing Market Cycles- California
Source Business Analysis Decisions
California is the other state with the largest
cumulative price gain during the last upward
cycle.
10Housing Market Cycles- Florida
Source Business Analysis Decisions
Florida is one of the two states with the largest
cumulative price gain during the last upward
cycle.
11Product Trends
- Agency execution is the only liquid market
- More Fixed Rates ? Fewer ARMs
- Interest-Only FRMs gaining ground
- Subprime and Alt-A have ground to a halt
- Underwriting and eligibility criteria have
tightened - Refinances increasing
- Increased valuation bias for refinance loans
- Subprime refinances acquired by Fannie Mae
- 13 Billion / 68,000 homeowners
- 96 percent are refinancing into an FRM
12Conforming Rates Fall Jumbos at a Premium