The Welfare Monitoring System Program and the Need for Further Support

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The Welfare Monitoring System Program and the
Need for Further Support

• By
• Getachew Adem
• Head, Development Planning and Research
• Ministry of Finance Economic Development
  (MOFED)
• May 21,2009

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Outline of the Presentation

• Background to the Welfare Monitoring System
  Program (WMSP)
• The Role of the WMU of MOFED in the WMSP\
• Objectives of the Welfare Monitoring System
  Program (WMSP)
• The Major Outputs of the WMSP
• Trends in Aggregate Poverty Measures over the
  Decade (1995/96 to 2004/05)
• Lessons from the Implementation of the WMSP (the
  ME Action Plan)
• Upcoming Challenges the Need for Further
  Support

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Background to the Welfare Monitoring System
Program

• The Launching of the Comprehensive Economic
  Reform Program in 1992/93
• Established with the intention of regularly
  monitoring and assessing the impact of the reform
  program on the poor
• The System formally established in 1996 through
  financial support from the World Bank and
  Norwegian Grant
• The two main actors have been and still are the
  WMU of MOFED and the CSA
• CSA responsible for conducting Household Income
  Consumption Expenditure Surveys (HICES) and
  Welfare Monitoring Surveys (WMS)
• The WMU of MOFED has been mandated for the
  Analysis of HICES and WMS data sets collected by
  the CSA
• Institutional Set up to oversee implementation of
  the the WMSP (Steering Committee, Technical
  Committee, Secretariat)

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The Role of the WMU of MOFED in the WMSP

• The WMU of MOFED, as part of the DPRD of the
  MOFED, is entrusted with the coordination of the
  overall ME system
• The WMU is responsible for compiling and
  analysing survey-based data collected by the CSA
  and administrative information generated by
  sectoral ME Systems in the preparation of the
  APR Reports on PASDEP and by extension MDGs
  implementation
• The WMU is also responsible for coordinating
  and for commissioning pertinent research on
  poverty/welfare and dissemination of the
  findings
• The DPRD (WMU) of MOFED is responsible for the
  preparation of Annual Progress Review (APR)
  Report which updates on poverty and welfare in
  Ethiopia as well as general reporting on progress
  in PASDEP/MDGs implementation of policies and
  programmes
• Besides, the WMU has to rely on a variety of
  sources of data to fulfil its monitoring tasks
• Moreover, as a key user, it has a key function in
  ensuring that the relevant data are collected for
  these purposes.

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Objectives of the WMSP

• The overall objective is to provide the
  government with reliable mechanisms to measure
  the efficiency of those government actions and
  the effectiveness of public policies in achieving
  the objectives stated in its Five Year
  Development Plan entitled Plan for Accelerated
  and Sustained Development to End Poverty
  (PASDEP). It will set the basis for a transparent
  process by which the government and donors can
  undertake a shared appraisal of results and
  ensure smooth release of external budgetary
  support.
• The Specific objectives of the ME system are
• To ensure that the Government and other
  stakeholders have a good understanding of the
  nature and distribution of poverty in all its
  dimensions and are able to monitor changes in the
  level and incidence of poverty
• To monitor the implementation of the actions
  contained in the the PASDEP and by extension the
  MDGs and identify problems as they emerge
• To be able to assess whether implementation of
  the actions contained in the PASDEP and hence the
  MDGs is having the intended effect on poverty

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The Major Outputs of the WMSP

• The 1995/96 HICES and WMS based poverty analysis
  Report entitled Poverty Situation of Ethiopia
  issued in March 1999. This helped produce the
  first ever income poverty indicators of
  national scope (sampled HHs for HICES 11441 and
  Sampled HHs for WMS11569)
• The 1999/2000 HICES and WMS based poverty
  analysis Report entitled Development and Poverty
  Profile of Ethiopia issued in March 2002. The
  outcomes informed the formulation of Ethiopias
  first generation PRSP known as the Sustainable
  Development and Poverty Reduction Program (SDPRP)
  issued in August 2002

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----Major Outputs

• The 2004/05 HICES and WMS based poverty analysis
  Report entitled Dynamics of Growth and Poverty
  Reduction in Ethiopia(1995/96 to 2004/05). Sample
  HHs for HICES increased to 21,900 in and for WMS
  to 33,000 in 2004/05.The outcomes of this
  analysis work informed the formulation of
  Ethiopias Five Year Development Plan (successor
  plan to the SDPRP) entitled Plan for Accelerated
  and Sustained Development to End Poverty
  (PASDEP).
• The Participatory Poverty Assessment (PPA) Study
  Report issued in 2005
• The Annual Progress Review (APR) Reports of the
  then SDPRP and the now PASDEP (3 APRs of SDPRP
  plus 2 APRs of PASDEP)
• Studies such as the Poverty Mapping has been
  postponed for technical reasons (waiting for the
  2007 Population and Housing census results). It
  is planned to be undertaken from the latter
  period of 2009 to the first half of 2010

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Trends in Aggregate Poverty Measures
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Lessons from the Implementation of the WMSP

• The Formulation of the ME Action Plan(2004/05
  to 2008/09) jointly by the WMU of MOFED the CSA
  based on the proposal entitled Strengthening
  Data Collection Analysis and Dissemination on
  Poverty Monitoring and the MDGs is currently
  under implementation through support from the DAG
  Pool Fund (continuation of the WB NG supported
  WMSP)
• This, in turn, is expected to be extended up to
  2011 through Phase III of Donor Support to the
  PRSP Process
• Efforts made to complement outcomes from
  quantitative analysis (HICES WMS) with outcomes
  from qualitative studies such as the 2004/05 PPA
• The 2004/05 HICES WMS outcomes triangulated
  with PPA results supplemented from other
  independent small scale surveys (Citizens Report
  Card and other small scale quantitative surveys)
  has helped in the conduct of determinants of
  poverty analysis work. This has been made an
  integral part of the 2004/05 HICES and WMS based
  poverty analysis report Dynamics of Growth and
  Poverty Reduction in Ethiopia(1995/96-2004/05)
  and is a value added from the previous Poverty
  Profile Report

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---Lessons

• Improved collaboration and working relationship
  between the CSA and the WMU of MOFED has helped
  refocus CSAs data generation efforts
• Improved coordination utilization of
  administrative information to complement outcomes
  from HICES and WMS in the preparation of the
  Annual Progress Report of SDPRP implementation
• The need for complementing outcomes of
  quantitative analysis with that of qualitative
  assessments
• Partnership with Higher Education and Research
  Institutions (both Local and Foreign)
• This has helped improve timely availability of
  poverty analysis results building in-house
  technical capacity
• Dialogue between Government and stakeholders help
  restructure and refine the SDPRP now the PASDEP
  Policy Matrix

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Upcoming Challenges the Need for Further Support

• The move to accelerate growth and bring about
  socio-economic transformation poses its own
  challenge to the ME System (paradigm shifts such
  as diversification on small holders, growth
  corridors, diversification of income, scaling up
  on all fronts, SMED, Export Diversification,etc)
• All these call for the ME System to be
  innovative flexible to track and capture
  changes brought about by those shifts and there
  by create a positive environment for learning
• This, for instance, calls for the conduct of
  small scale HICE surveys (at least once) in
  between the regular large scale HICE surveys
  conducted every five years
• The on-going devolution and challenges to meet
  information requirements on poverty and welfare
  at sub-national level (woredas and kebeles)
• Poverty Mapping is part of the ME Action Plan
  and is planned to be undertaken during 2008/09 to
  2009/10(preparatory ground work is currently
  underway to launch the study in early 2010
• Strengthening Coordination of sect oral
  monitoring systems to feed in to the overall
  Welfare Monitoring System
• How best to complement uses of poverty outcomes
  from small-scale quantitative surveys and those
  from surveys of National Scope?
• How best to complement uses of outcomes from
  quantitative surveys (such as HICES and WMS) with
  qualitative ones (PPA)?
• The need for further strengthening overall
  institutional coordination

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• Thank You