Prsentation PowerPoint

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TNS Media Intelligence Campaign Media Analysis
GroupApril 12th 2007Television Bureau of
AdvertisingAnnual Marketing Conference
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Overview

• 2007
• Backdrop
• State and Local Spending
• 2007 Presidential Impact
• 2008 Outlook
• What to Watch
• Looking Ahead

TNS Media Intelligence Page
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TNS Media Intelligence 2007 an Off (the charts)
Year

• The Backdrop
• 2007 is year 3 of the political business cycle
  
• On-track to surpass previous off-year spending
• Ad spending historically has been driven by state
  and local races during the 1st 2nd quarters
  with localized Presidential Primary ad spending
  by the 3rd and 4th quarters
• Record Fundraising
• BCRAs built-in annual 10 increase
• Robust Issue Advocacy Climate
• State and Federal

TNS Media Intelligence Page
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2007Ad Spending State and Local Politics

• Mayors
• Over 1000 Mayors Races Nationwide from Aberdeen
  (WA) to Zion (IL)
• 1st Quarter 2007 - 7.7 million in TV ad spending
  (Over 19 million spent in 2003)
• TV Driven Cities Chicago, Philadelphia,
  Baltimore, Houston, Dallas, Kansas City
• Governors
• 2003 spending over 18 million
• Kentucky, Louisiana Mississippi
• 1st Quarter 2007 1.2 million
• Full Primary fields in KY and now LA
• Post-Katrina Gulf Coast political climate likely
  to get national attention and money
• 2008 Races on the air in 2007

TNS Media Intelligence Page
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2007 Ad Spending State and Local Politics

• More Down Ballot Races Using Ads
• State and Local Races
• State Judges continue to gain in ad spending
  over 2 million spent in 1st quarter WI race
• Ballot Measures
• Special Elections
• State Issue Ad Campaigns
• 21.3 Million Spent in 1st Quarter 2007
• Healthcare NY, CA, CT, IA, WV, OK
• Local Issues VA, IA, FL, UT
• Education IA, NY
• Telecommunications
• 8-10 States considering new legislation or
  regulation in 2007 (TN, FL, GA, WI IL currently
  running ads)

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2007 Ad Spending The 2007 Presidential Race

• Both Democrats and Republicans Have 3 Tiers of
  Candidates
• Tier 1 In it to win it
• Capable of raising 60-100 million in 2007,
  will have paid staff in a dozen or more states
  and likely will spend 15-40 million on ads
  before February 2008.
• Tier 2 Most likely to drop out of the race
  before running ads
• Potential to raise 20-50 million, paid staff in
  4-9 States and likely to spend 10 million on
  ads
• Tier 3 Just in it
• Will spend a combined 2-15million on ads

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2007 Ad Spending The 2007 Presidential Race

• The Landscape
• The Primary Calendar is Compacted
• Tremendous Tuesday! CA, FL, NJ, NC and others are
  moving up to 2/5/2008, ending the nomination
  process by this time next year
• State movement will likely impact paid media
  strategy (Timing, Markets, Media Outlets)
• Inventory will be a greater issue in early states
  (IA, NH, SC)
• Ad Spending
• Candidates and Groups Spent a Combined 1 million
  in the 1st Quarter 2007
• Likely to see battleground media markets
• 527s Likely to play a significant supporting
  role -- Groups will seek to swift boat
  front-runners and extend resources of the front
  runners
• Movement driven groups using ads to piggyback
  onto the media coverage

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What To Watch

• Political Calendar
• Primary movement likely to place a greater
  importance on IA, NH, NV and SC for Tiers 1 2
• As more states move up their Primary dates a move
  to Dec 07 is possible in IA and NH
• Primary ad spending for House and Senate races
  will likely appear in 2007
• Political Climate Media Strategy
• More Internet spending, but still a drop in the
  bucket compared to TV ad spending
• More Net Cable than 2004
• Cable and Radio should also see gains
• YouTube and other Homemade spots will be used
  as fundraising and buzz generation tools
• Front runners will dictate the importance of the
  early states
• A late entry (or two) and vote by mail and early
  voting states could alter campaigns media
  strategy

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Looking Forward 2008

• Steady fundraising and the potential of
  well-funded third party candidates likely means
  no post-nomination lull in ad spending
• 2008 replay of 2004 with 15-20 battleground
  states, likely many of the same states from 2004
• Ad Spending will Surpass 2003-2004 totals
• 1/3 of the Senate up in 2008 (majority are held
  by Republicans) and US House races will likely
  replicate 2006 non-Presidential spending
• 11 states holding Governors races in 2008,
  several states expected to overlap the
  Presidential battleground
• Probable Perfect Storm States Colorado, North
  Carolina, West Virginia, Washington, Missouri,
  New Mexico, New Hampshire, Ohio, Maine and
  Minnesota

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Stay Tuned

• Thank you

TNS Media Intelligence Page