Conflict in Developing Societies

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Conflict in Developing Societies

• Lecture 12

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The Nature of the Problem
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Things are Not Always What They Seem.

• Ethnic Conflict Is Not
• Conflict fuelled by age-old loyalties and
  cultural differences.
• Ethnic Groups lying in wait for one another
  nourishing age-old hatreds.
• Irrational Violence

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Ethnic Conflict Is Conflict Over Who Gets What

• The State Controls Access to Resources.
• Group that Controls the State Controls Resources.
• Politics Revolves Around Competition Between
  Groups for Control of the State in Order to Gain
  Resources.
• When Groups are Defined Along Ethnic Lines,
  Competition is Between Ethnic Groups.

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The War in Yugoslavia

• Pre-War Yugoslavia
• Ethnic Composition
• 8 Regions
• 3 religious groups
• Government Structure
• De-Centralized Federal Structure
• Federal Institutions Represents Republics
• Economy
• Command Style
• Relatively Prosperous

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The Emergence of Conflict

• De-Stabilizing Shocks in 1980s
• Oil and Debt Crises
• Widening Income Disparities Between Northern
  Yugoslavia and Southern Yugoslavia.
• Economic Crisis Creates the Need for Political
  and Economic Reform

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Political and Economic Reform

• Serbs Push for Greater Centralization
• Want to use state power to redistribute wealth
  from Northern Republics to Southern Republics
• Slovenes and Croats Want Greater
  De-Centralization
• Reform Provides an Opportunity for Reduction of
  Government Intervention and marketization of
  the economy.
• The Two Reform Agendas are Incompatible

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Rising Nationalism

• Origins of Serb Nationalism Lie in Kosovo in Late
  1980s
• Albanian Majority Pressures for Greater Political
  Rights
• Serbs Respond with Military Force
• Milosovic uses Kosovo as opportunity, seizes
  power in Serbia.
• Uses Nationalism to Mobilize popular support for
  his rule and his goals.

Slobodan Milosovic
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Milosovic Extends His Power

• Exploiting Nationalism, Milosovic Installs
  Puppet Leaders in Vojvodina, Montenegro,
  Kosovo.
• Captures Four of the Eight Votes in the
  Collective Presidency.
• Serbia Likely to Prevail in Wider Struggle Over
  Political and Economic Reform.

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The Road To War Slovenia

• Fall of 1989, Slovenia Prepares for Independence
• Passes Constitutional Amendments that Deny
  Federal Government Authority
• Milosovic Severs Economic Relations with Slovenia
• December 1990 Referendum 88 Vote for
  Independence.
• Slovenia Secedes, June 1991

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What Should Serbia Do?

• Serbia Begins to Redraw Boundaries to Incorporate
  All Serbs Living in Yugoslavia into Greater
  Serbia.
• Direct Challenge to Croatia and Bosnia, Each of
  Which have Large Serbian Population.
• Security Dilemma Emerges
• War Spreads to Croatia, June 1991 January 1992
  UN Peacekeepers Enter

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Bosnia

• Bosnia is Microcosm of Yugoslavia
• October 1991, Croats and Muslims Vote to Make
  Bosnia Independent
• Bosnian Serbs Leave Bosnian Parliament, Establish
  Serb Autonomous Region
• Bosnian War Begins in April 1992, Ends in 1995.
• UN Peacekeepers Inserted.

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Ethnic Conflict?

• War in Former Yugoslavia Was Not Irrational
  Violence Fuelled by Ancient Hatreds.
• Political Conflict Over Who Gets What Emerged
  From Process of Political and Economic Reform.
• Leadership Turns to Nationalism to Mobilize
  Public to Support their Goals.
• Rising Nationalism Creates a Security Dilemma
  Situation in Which No One Feels Secure.

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Ethnic Conflict in Rwanda

• Two GroupsHutus and Tutsis. Historically
• Tutsis were Herdsman
• Hutus were Cultivators
• Group Identity Acquires Economic and Class
  Meaning
• Cows More Valuable Asset, thus Tutsis are
  Wealthier than Hutus
• Tutsis Rule Rwanda in 19th Century Favored By
  Colonial Powers For Political, Military, and
  Administrative Positions.

(Dem Rep. Congo)
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Hutu Revolution

• During Late 1950s Hutus Begin to Mobilize to Take
  Power from Tutsis (De-colonization)
• First Ethnic Violence Takes Place in 1959, as
  Hutus Begin to Kill Tutsis.
• By October 1960, Hutu Revolution Successful.
• Begin to Oppress Tutsis Just as Tutsis Had
  Oppressed Hutus.
• Large Number of Tutsis Flee Country.

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The 1980s and 1990s

• Deteriorating Economic Conditions
• Collapse of Coffee Prices
• IMF Stabilization Package
• Extremely High Population Density
• The Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) Attacks Rwanda
  in October 1990.
• Composed of Tutsi Refugees Living in Uganda
• Hutu Govt Uses War as Justification to
• Expand the MilitaryFrom 5,000 to 40,000.
• Mobilize Population for Sacrifices Needed to
  Defend Regime.

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The Arusha Peace Accord

• August 4, 1993 RPF and the Rwandan Government
  Sign a Peace Accord.
• Blueprint for Power Sharing Arrangement Among the
  Hutu Regime, Internal Opposition Parties, and the
  RPF.
• This Shift Toward Democracy Generated
  Opposition Among the Extremists Within the Ruling
  Hutu Government.
• Extremists Believe that President Had Been Too
  Eager to Negotiate Peace and Had Compromised Too
  Much in Doing So.

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April July 1994

• The Genocide Was Based on Months of Preparation
  by the Hutu GovernmentUsing Hutu Nationalism to
  Mobilize Public Support.
• April 6, 1994, the Rwandan President Is
  Assassinated (most Likely By Extremist Members of
  His Own Government).
• Assassination Is Trigger for Violence.
• Eliminate Hutu Opposition Leaders
• Eliminate Tutsis
• 800,000 People Killed in 100 Days (Of a Total
  Population of 6 Million).

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Ethnic Conflict?

• Poverty and Further Deterioration of Economic
  Conditions.
• Use of State to Enhance Position of Your Group
  and Deny Others Equal Opportunities.
• War Over Control of Government.
• Government Mobilization of Anti-Tutsi Sentiment
  in Conjunction with the Broader Objectives Being
  Pursued through War.

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The Logic of War in the Liberal Vision

• Deteriorating Economic Conditions
• Zero-Sum Politics
• No Democratic Tradition of Compromise and Power
  Sharing
• Politics Becomes a Winner Take All Affair
• Conflict in Environment of Economic Deprivation
  Often Produces Civil War.
• The Absence of Prosperity/Economic
  Interdependence and of Democracy Creates a
  Climate in Which War Can Flourish.