Title: Cognitive Economics
1Cognitive Economics
- Definition Taking seriously data other than
actual choices in the wild. - Must be linked back to actual choices in the
wild. - Analogous to Cognitive Psychology
- vs. B.F. Skinner.
- Complementary to Psychological Economics, since
loosening the constraints on the utility function
raises the value of additional data.
2Examples of Cognitive Economics
- Experimental Economics.
- Neuroeconomics.
- Survey measures of expectations.
- Survey measures of preference parameters based on
hypothetical choices. - Happiness research.
3Utility and Happiness
- Miles Kimball and Robert Willis
- University of Michigan
- http//www-personal.umich.edu/mkimball/pdf/index.
html
4A Growing Economic Literature Uses Happiness Data
- Provocative findingssee Layards Happiness
- Mostly focuses on the cross-section and the
long-run trend. - Motivations of the researchers
- to study the welfare implications of non-traded
goods - to diagnose optimization mistakes and study
welfare implications in contexts where choice
behavior is potentially inconsistent. - Many other economists are skeptical the
theoretical status of happiness is unclear.
5Happiness, as Defined Operationally by
Psychologists
- On a scale from one to seven, where one is
extremely unhappy and seven is extremely
happy, how do you feel right now?
6What happiness (subjective well-being) is NOT
- NOT utility.
- NOT happiness in Aristotles sense
- (recommended preferences).
- But, we argue, this kind of data carries useful
information.
7The Standard View in Psychology
- Currently, the standard view among psychologists
and most economists working with happiness
dataarticulated most forcefully by Daniel
Kahnemanis that a present discounted value of
measured happiness is a good indicator of what
people should be maximizing. - To the extent that people are maximizing
something else, it is viewed as a mistake. - Factual mistakes people make in predicting their
own future happiness are thought to be an
important reason people make these optimization
mistakes.
8Our View
- We are questioning this orthodoxy.
- When well-informed and thoughtful, we view
peoples choices as the best indication of their
individual welfare. - People do often make optimization errors.
- But much of what this orthodoxy takes as evidence
of optimization errors, we take as evidence that
utility and happiness are not the same thing.
9What is Happiness in Relation to Economic
Theory?
- Flow utility?
- The individuals overall objective function?
- The part of the individuals objective function
that abstracts from the desire to do ones duty? - The individuals objective function plus pleasure
from memory? - None of the above?
10Our Answer
- Part of happiness is a temporary response to
changes in utility or news about utility. - Handled with care, these bursts of happiness give
useful information about overall utility. - The more persistent, predictable part of
happiness is a valuable commodity like health,
but is not a measure of overall utility. - People care about how they feel, but it is not
the only thing they care about. - Because people care about how they feel, having
more knowledge about how to feel happy is
extremely valuable. Many of the policy issues
about happiness are the issues that always arise
in relation to valuable knowledge. - If people care about how they feel, so that
happiness is in the utility function, policy
issues also arise when any externality affects
happiness.
11Outline of Introduction
- Distinguishing utility and happiness as a matter
of logic. - Why we care about utility and happiness.
- Why the relationship between them cant be simple
(short version). - Our take on the relationship between utility and
happiness.
12 A. Utility and Happiness
- Lifetime Utility The extent to which people get
what they want, where what they want is indicated
by their choices. - Happiness (Current Affect) How positive
peoples feelings are at a given time.
13B. Judging Individual Welfare
- Peoples own choices and feelings are the two
non-paternalistic indicators we have for
individual welfare (what makes an individual
better off in the sense relevant for policy). - A priori, both seem useful.
14C. The Easterlin Paradox and Hedonic Adaptation
- Taking both feelings and choices seriously runs
into the difficulty that affect and utility seem
to behave quite differently. - Easterlin Paradox Measured utility trends
strongly upwards, while measured happiness has
little trend. - Hedonic Adaptation Utility is affected
permanently by permanent changes in external
circumstances, but the effects on happiness seem
shorter-lived.
15D. The Relationship Between Happiness and Utility
is Unresolved
- Existing work in Economics largely either
- ignores happiness data, e.g.
- Happiness is irrelevant to Economics
- OR
- B. assumes happinessflow utility
- Happiness is a sufficient statistic for
utility.
16The Middle Way
- In this paper, we steer a middle course between
these two extremes - Happiness ? Flow Utility,
- BUT
- Happiness has a systematic relationship to
utility.
17The Question What is the Relationship?
- Both felt happiness and choice-based utility are
well-defined, observable concepts. It is easy to
resolve many seeming paradoxes when one
recognizes that these are two different things. - The nature of the relationship between the
standard psychological concept of happiness
(affect) and the standard economic concept of
lifetime utility is an open empirical question.
18Significance
- Establishing any systematic relationship between
affect and utility would - provide an important bridge between psychology
and economics. - allow psychological data and theory to be used in
economics in a way that is complementary to
standard economic data and theory. - allow all the tools of economics to be brought to
bear toward understanding happiness.
19Sketch of our Integrated Theory of Utility and
Happiness
- Experienced happiness is the sum of two
components - elation short-run happiness that depends on
recent news about lifetime utility - baseline mood long-run happiness that is a
subutility function (like health, entertainment,
or nutrition.)
20Why Happiness Matters for Economics (Our View)
- First, short-run happiness in response to news
can give important information about preferences.
- Second, long-run happiness is important for
economic welfare in the same way as other
composite goods such as health, entertainment, or
nutrition.
21The Core of the Paper
- 3. Measuring Happiness
- 4. Measuring Utility
- 5. Utility ? Happiness Evidence
- 6. An Integrated Theory of Utility and
Happiness
22Bonus Features
- 7. Why Utility and Happiness are Often Confused
- 8. Elation in the Utility Function
- 9. Implications for Happiness Empirics
- 10. Implications for Policy
233. Psychologists Reliably Measure Happiness, But
What Is It?
- Some economists think happiness cant be measured
well. This is just not true. Current happiness
(affect) is one of the easiest of all subjective
concepts to measure. - What is true (that these economists are
intuiting) is that once happiness is measured, we
dont know what it means in terms of economic
theory.
24Measuring Current Happiness (Affect).
- Now think about the past week and the feelings
you have experienced. Please tell me if each of
the following was true for you much of the time
this past week - Much of the time during the past week, you felt
you were happy. (Would you say yes or no)? - (Much of the time during the past week,) you felt
sad. (Would you say yes or no?) - (Much of the time during the past week,) you
enjoyed life. (Would you say yes or no?) - (Much of the time during the past week,) you felt
depressed. (Would you say yes or no?)
25The Validity of Self-Reported Happiness
- Correlated with
- frequency of smiling.
- others ratings of how happy someone is.
- social rank.
- high activity in the left pre-frontal cortex and
low activity in the right pre-frontal
cortex--which can also be induced by seeing
pictures of a smiling baby and reduced by seeing
pictures of a deformed baby.
26Other Measures of Subjective Well-Being Life
Satisfaction
- On a scale from 1 to 10, how satisfied are you
with your life?
27World Values Survey Global Happiness Question
- "Taking all things together, would you say you
are - Very happy
- Quite happy
- Not very happy
- Not at all happy
- 9. Dont Know Do NOT READ OUT
28Problems with these Alternative Measures of
Subjective Well-Being
- Judging overall life-satisfaction or overall
happiness in life is a complex cognitive task. - Evidence on the sensitivity of of subjective
well-being data to context indicates that
respondents use shortcuts involving readily
accessible information, such as - How happy the respondent feels right now
- How happy the respondent thinks he or she should
feel, given objective circumstances.
29Advantages of Affect Measures (Current Happiness
Measures)
- By contrast, affect measures depend on much more
accessible information - How R feels right now.
- How R felt the past week.
- Very little judgment is required.
- How R feels right now affects the overall
life-satisfaction or global happiness questions
anyway. It is clearer to focus on that current
happiness component directly. Then we know what
we are getting.
304. Measuring Utility Revealed Preference Over
Choices
- The Ordinalist, or revealed preference
revolution in Economics developed techniques for
measuring individual welfare based on choice data
alone. - This clearly defines utility as a distinct
concept from happiness. - Utility is the extent to which people get what
they want. - Happiness is how people feel.
31The Trend in UtilityChoose between 1955 and 2005
- The electronics revolution and the Internet have
vastly expanded access to a rapidly growing
quantity of culture and science. - Crime, teenage pregnancy and drug abuse worsened
at first but now trend downward. - Greater equality between races and sexes.
- War on Terror better than Cold War.
- Better medical care and greater longevity.
32Life Expectancy
33Would you want to go back to the way things used
to be?
- No computers or electronics
- No Ben and Jerrys
- No Harry Potter
- No Beatles music yet released
- Jim Crow, strong male dominance
- Cold War
- Few modern drugs
34Revealed Preference Migration Flows
- Per capita GDP in Mexico is not far from what it
was in the U.S. in the 1950s. - Large numbers of Mexicans choose to migrate to
the U.S. - Among the many costs of migration, their social
rank often drops drastically when they migrate to
the U.S. Despite this, they come.
35Do People Know Their Own Utility Functions?
- Not perfectly. For example, I dont know if I
will like a new flavor of ice cream. - Lack of knowledge of ones own utility function
can be modeled as an internal informational
constraint. (Rayo-Becker is an example.) - The key distinguishing features of mistakes about
ones own utility function are - regret
- changing ones mind after learning more.
36Can Happiness Data Alone Diagnose Optimization
Mistakes?
- No. Happiness data alone cannot diagnose a
mistake without strong assumptions about the
relationship between utility and happiness. - Even the relevance of mistakes in predicting
future happiness depends on the relationship
between happiness and utility. - In Section 8 C, we illustrate how people could
make mistakes in the impulse response pattern of
future happiness without impairing optimization
at all.
375. Happiness ? Flow Utility Evidence
- Assuming that current happiness is equal to flow
utility immediately has many strong implications.
- In particular, a large amount of data on
happiness exists, with many characteristics that
do not match usual ideas about utility. - Measured happiness
- has no strong trend.
- is strongly mean-reverting.
38The Easterlin Paradox
39Hedonic Adaptation(Mean Reversion of Affect)
- Cross-sectional evidence of hedonic adaptation
for - incarceration
- loss of the use of limbs
- serious burns
- death of a spouse
- winning the lottery
- winning 10,000 raises affect by six times as
much in the first year as 10,000 per year in
additional income.
40Experience Data Show Even Stronger Hedonic
Adaptation
- Data on felt happiness from experience sampling
reverts to its previous level even more
completely than life satisfaction and global
happiness assessments (Kahneman and Schwarz,
unpublished work). Why? - Life satisfaction and global happiness
assessments incorporate - an element of autobiography
- peoples ideas about how they should feel
41Hedonic Adaptation is Not the Same Thing as Habit
Formation
- Hedonic adaptation is a statement about
happiness, as measured by psychologists. - Habit formation is a statement about utility, as
measured by economists. - If happiness were equal to flow utility, data on
hedonic adaptation would imply very strong habit
formation.
42Evidence on Habit Formation
Constantinides Form
1. Joseph Lupton estimates ?.75 based on
portfolio choices 2. Impulse responses for
consumption choices suggest ? close to zero
unless the lags in the habit H are very long.
3. Because of the speed of hedonic adaptation,
long lags are inconsistent with UAffect.
43Modeling Choice Habit Formation or Just Hedonic
Adaptation?
Suppose
and
1. Equivalent to
and happinessfirst difference of flow utility.
2. Lets keep the economic theory simple and put
the complexity in the utility-happiness
relationship. a. Its clearer and simpler.
b. It avoids the misleading impression that
there is anything wrong with the more
traditional functional form.
44Does Habit Formation Affect the Choice between
1955 and 2005?
- To include the effects of habit formation on the
decision, imagine you had to give your newborn,
whom you care a lot about, up for adoption.
Which world you would want your newborn to grow
up in? - Beware of nostalgia.
- Remember the problems that have now been partly
or wholly resolved. - Hold relative social rank constant.
- Think about relative mortality rates.
45Other Evidence that Utility?Happiness
- 1. People make choices eagerly that they never
regret, but which have no long-run effect on
their affect. - Moving to a new city
- Buying a nice car
- 2. With some misgivings at the tradeoff, people
thoughtfully make choices that they never regret,
which lower their affect. - Commuting further to a higher-paying job.
- Longer working hours to put ones child through
college. - Having a baby?
466. Integrated Theory of Utility and Happiness
happiness baseline mood elation.
- A. Elation
- B. Baseline Mood
- C. Formal Model
- D. Expectations and Happiness
- E-G. Evolutionary Significance
- -Elation
- -Hedonic Adaptation
- -Baseline Mood
- H. Implications of the Integrated Theory
47News and Happiness
- The relationship between circumstances and
happiness is weak in the long run, - BUT
- No one disputes that in the short run happiness
responds in an intuitive way to news about
lifetime utility. - Thus, we argue that an important component of
happiness is due to recent news about lifetime
utility.
48Elation and Dismay
- elation the component of happiness due to
recent news about lifetime utility. - dismay -elation
49Elation and Hedonic Adaptation
- If expectations are rational, standard results
about rational expectations imply that elation
will be strongly mean reverting. Intuitively, - News doesnt stay news for very long.
- The initial burst of elation dissipates once the
full import of news is emotionally and
cognitively processed. - Relevance to the Hedonic Treadmill, a.k.a. the
Easterlin Paradox.
50Baseline Mood
- baseline mood M(Kt, Xt)
- Xt vector of control variables time use,
spending pattern, portfolio choice, etc. - Kt vector of
- state variables encoding every aspect of the past
that matters for utility wealth, weight, habits,
level of fatigue, ones spouse being alive, etc. - variables exogenous to the individual weather,
state of macroeconomy, consumption patterns of
others in society, etc. - CONTINUED ON NEXT SLIDE ?
51Baseline Mood and Flow Utility
- flow utility U(Kt, Xt, M(Kt, Xt))
- We think of baseline mood M(Kt, Xt) as the
component of happiness produced by a household
production function. - A good analogy is to health. Like health,
baseline mood - can be measured independently of Kt and Xt
- is only one argument of the flow utility function
- depends on different things than flow utility
does (or on the same things with different
weights) - has a complex household production function
52What does Baseline Mood Depend on?
- Any persistent aspect of happiness is part of
baseline mood. Genes are the biggest factor.
Also, there is some evidence that each of the
following has a persistent effect on happiness - a. Prozac
- b. sleep
- c. exercise
- d. good eating habits
- e. social rank
- pleasantness of ones current activity
-
53Do People Know the Production Function for
Baseline Mood?
- Just as people dont know the true production
function for health, they may not know the true
production function for baseline mood. - Lack of understanding of the dynamics of the
elation mechanism could make it difficult for
individuals to parcel out the determinants of
baseline mood. - The discovery and dissemination of facts about
the determinants of baseline mood could have
large positive welfare effects - A big deal if the share of the money and time
budget devoted to baseline mood trends up.
54Applying Price Theory to Baseline Mood
- Is baseline mood a luxury good?
- Even normality of baseline mood leads to a
version of the Easterlin Paradox - Why dont people buy higher baseline mood as
part of their expanding consumption bundle? - Three potential answers
- Some uptrending negative externalities may be
particularly bad for baseline mood. - Lack of knowledge of baseline mood production fn.
- The relative price of baseline mood may be
trending up. (A large effect if the elasticity
of substitution between baseline mood and other
goods is high.)
55Formal Model of Utility and Happiness
vt lifetime utility U flow utility M
baseline mood Et rational expectation as of
time t ß impatience Kt state vector
wealth, weight, fatigue, being alive,
spouse being alive, genes, weather,
prices, tax rates, pollution average level
of consumption in society Xt control vector
consumption, time use
56The Innovation in Lifetime Utility and Elation
Note about the lifetime utility innovation
57Theory of Happiness (Current Affect)
58Neurobiological Evidence that Expectations Matter
for Affect
- These studies measured the firing of dopamine
neurons in the animals ventral striatum, which
is known to play a powerful role in motivation
and action. - In their paradigm, a tone was sounded, and two
seconds later a juice reward was squirted into
the monkeys mouth. - Initially, the neurons did not fire until the
juice was delivered.
59Neurobiological Evidence that Expectations Matter
for Affect
- Once the animal learned that the tone forecasted
the arrival of juice two seconds later, however,
the same neurons fired at the sound of the tone,
but did not fire when the juice reward arrived. - These neurons were not responding to reward, or
its absence they were responding to deviations
from expectations. - When the juice was expected from the tone, but
was not delivered, the neurons fired at a very
low rate, as if expressing disappointment. (p.26)
60The Evolutionary Psychology of Elation and Dismay
- Functionally, elation and dismay may motivate
cognitive processingmuch like curiosity. - Elation after good news, it pays to
- think what you did right, so you can do it again
- think how to take advantage of the new
opportunities - Dismay after bad news, it pays to
- think what you did wrong, so you can avoid doing
it again - think how to mitigate the harm of the bad news
- Curiosity after news that is neither clearly
good nor bad, it pays to learn more for the sake
of option value - Economic implications of this functional role of
elation such directed information acquisition
could affect probability assessments in
systematic ways.
61The Evolutionary Psychology of Hedonic Adaptation
- Adaptive processes serve two important
functions. First, they protect organisms by
reducing the internal impact of external
stimuli. Second, they enhance perception by
heightening the signal value of changes from the
baseline level. - Hedonic adaptation may serve similar protective
and perception-enhancing functions. persistent
strong hedonic states (for example, fear or
stress) can have destructive physiological
concomitants Thus, hedonic adaptation may help
to protect us from these effects. - Hedonic adaptation may also increase our
sensitivity to, and motivation to make, local
changes in our objective circumstances.
(Frederick and Loewenstein) - See also Rayo and Becker (2005).
62Speculations on The Evolutionary Psychology of
Baseline Mood
- High social rank may make it safe to look more
for opportunities than for dangers, so that it
makes sense to stimulate the same machinery that
is turned on by the receipt of good news. - Frequency dependence in the value of being an
optimist or pessimist. - Quirks in the system?
- Stephen Pinkers view of cheesecake.
63Three Implications of this Theory of Happiness
- Happiness ? Utility.
- Disputes the idea that temporary movements in
affect are unimportant - a temporary movement in affect can signal
important utility-relevant news related to the
long-term welfare of the individual. - Baseline mood is not a summary measure of
utility, but it is something people care about.
64Bonus Features
- 7. Why Utility and Happiness are Often Confused
- 8. Elation in the Utility Function
- 9. Implications for Happiness Empirics
- 10. Implications for Policy
657. Why Utility and Happiness are Often Confused
- If baseline mood is exogenous to the individual,
and elation is linear in lifetime utility
innovations, maximizing any positive linear
combination of current and expected future
happiness is equivalent to maximizing lifetime
utility.
66Why are Utility and Happiness Confused?
(continued)
- Elation and dismay may dominate peoples
perception of happiness, but without much
conscious awareness of the resetting of the
implicit reference point that depends on past
expectations of lifetime utility. - The reference point is a sunk cost that does not
affect maximization, so lack of awareness of it
is not a problem.
678. Elation in the Utility Function
- So far,
- a. flow utility U(Kt, Xt, M(Kt, Xt))
- What if
- b. flow utility U(Kt, Xt, M(Kt, Xt))
- b0?tb1?t-1b2?t-2
- c. or flow utility
- U(Kt, Xt, M(Kt, Xt),e(?t,?t-1,?t-2,))
)
68Elation in the Utility Function Might Not Change
a Thing
- Given rational expectations, adding a linear
combination of lifetime utility innovations to
the utility function has no effect on the
preferences represented. - In this case, mistakes about the rate of hedonic
adaptation cause no material harm to utility
maximization.
69Can Manipulating Ones Perceptions Raise Utility?
- With elation in the utility function,
manipulating ones perception of lifetime utility
innovations becomes an issue. - Lowering expectations is mostly a wash because it
lowers happiness now in order to raise happiness
later. It may also interfere with optimization.
- The greatest potential gain from manipulating
ones perceptions is to lower ones memory of
past expectations. (Attitude of gratitude)
70Manipulating Perceptions of Locus of Control
- Elation may respond more to news about whether
ones choices worked out than to news about
things beyond ones control. - This would make it possible to manipulate elation
by labeling good events as due to ones efforts,
while bad events were beyond ones control.
71Elation and Prospect Theory
- In the nonlinear case, elation theory yields
prospect theory very naturally. In particular,
if - a. Elation is roughly proportional to the rate of
cognitive processing of news. - b. Bad news requires more processing than good
news. - c. Within bad or good news, the total amount of
processing needed is proportional or less than
proportional to the magnitude of the news. - Thus, Prospect Theory can arise from rational
preferences over ones own emotions.
729. Implications for Happiness Empirics
- The time series properties of happiness matter.
- Price Theory can be used to study baseline mood
(e.g., value of happiness). - The Elation Theory is readily testable.
- Elation provides information about preferences
and expectations. - Like event studies in Finance
- Need high frequency data on affect.
7310. Implications for Policy
- Happiness is valuable should be fostered.
- Happiness data are a reminder of tangible and
intangible externalities in the utility
functionespecially social rank externalities. - Economic growth is of enormous value, despite the
Easterlin Paradox. - Happiness data is not enough to diagnose
optimization mistakes.
74Reprise Integrated Theory of Utility and
Happiness
- Happiness is the sum of two components
- elation short-run happiness that depends on
recent news about lifetime utility - baseline mood long-run happiness that is a
subutility function (like health, entertainment,
or nutrition.)
75Conclusion Integrating Happiness into Mainstream
Economics
- Happiness needs to be integrated in a way that
respects the canons of Economics. - Two key dimensions for integrating happiness into
economics - First, the short-run responses of happiness to
news provide important information about
preferences. - Second, long-run happiness is important in its
own right.
76The Integrated Theory of Utility and Affect
Axioms
- 1. Happiness and news other things being equal,
- a. the agent will feel happier if current
expectations are of a preferred future. - b. the agent will feel less happy if past
expectations were of a preferred future.
77(No Transcript)
78The Integrated Theory of Utility and Affect
Axioms
- 2. Preference for happiness. Between two fully
anticipated life courses with the same outward
circumstances, the agent prefers the one in which
he or she feels happier. - 3. Social Rivalry. The empirical possibility of
social rivalry is represented by the absence of
an axiom that preferences depend only on the
agents own situation.
79Preference for Happiness Discussion
- The preference for happiness shows up in both
household and firm behavior - Purchases of therapy, Prozac, self-help books,
magazines featuring happiness. - Advertising that tries to suggest that a product
will make one feel happy.
80Preference for Happiness Discussion
- The preference for happiness axiom is a
relatively cautious assumption. - It allows for the possibility that people have
other pragmatic concerns beyond the extent to
which those concerns show up directly in felt
happiness. For example, they may care about
satisfying basic drives, the happiness of family
members, health, ethical concerns and other
goals.
81Preference for Happiness Discussion
- One could make stronger assumptions but the
axioms above are enough for our approach. - Cautious assumptions have the advantage of being
more likely to gain broad acceptance within
Economics.
82An Alternative, Stronger, Assumption
- Sufficient Statistic Hypothesis some combination
of current and expected future happiness is a
sufficient statistic for the agents preferences. - The Preference for Happiness Axiom allows for the
Sufficient Statistic Hypothesis as a special case
that, in principle, is empirically testable. - -Happiness can be measured by feelings.
- -Preferences can be measured by choices whenever
people are well informed and have time to make a
careful choice.
83(No Transcript)
84Significance
- Even if economic progress continues unabated over
the next 50 years in the U.S. advanced countries,
whether the citizens of these countries end up
rich and happy or rich and unhappy depends on
whether money can buy happiness and on whether
the additional economic resources will, in fact,
be used to obtain additional happiness.
85Significance
- 2. To the extent there is a tradeoff between
subjective well-being and other values, the
increases in income and wealth that accompany
economic progress are likely to make improvements
in subjective well-being increasingly important
for welfare compared to further improvements in
other areas.
86Significance
- 3. Economists are increasingly using subjective
well-being data to address economic and public
policy issues that involve non-marketed goods or
inconsistent preferences. Identifying the
implications of subjective well-being data for
economic issues requires attention to the details
of the mapping between subjective well being data
and standard economic concepts.
87Significance
- 4. Given an adequate understanding of the
mapping between subjective well-being data and
standard economic concepts, the use of subjective
well-being data has the potential to be
especially important in the economics of aging,
since many of the most important goods for
retired people are non-marketed goods.
(Consider, for example, health, marital and
family relationships, sense of purpose, and
quality of leisure time pursuits.)
88Significance
- 5. In the coming decades, advances in subjective
well-being at work have the potential to alter
peoples relationship to work in a way that
significantly raise the average retirement age,
with important implications for Social Security
budget balance.