Assessing market impacts on forest conditions in the US South

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Assessing market impacts on forest conditions in
the US South

• David Wear
• USDA Forest Service
• Southern Research Station

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Objective

• Use the findings of the Southern Forest Resource
  Assessment to inform a discussion of how market
  forces have defined and continue to reshape
  southeastern forests

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Southern Forest Resource Assessment

• Federal, state, and public participation
• Rapid scientific assessmentpeer review
• Question driven
• Descriptive, not prescriptive
• Focus on access
• Foundation for informed debate

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Organizing Concept

• Land use and resource conditions are outcomes of
  landowner decisions influenced by a web of
  economic and social forces.
• US South is unusualpredominant private ownership
  of forests
• Laboratory for investigating sustainability

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Land Uses
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Competition for forest land

• Land use choices determine forest area
• Choices are consistent with economic rationale
• Important variables are those that influence
  returns to various uses
• Agriculture
• Forest
• Developed

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Land Use Forecasts
forecasting model...
Population Housing values Income
Urban Rural
Timber returns Agriculture returns Management c
osts
Agriculture Forests
land
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Independent Variables
Variable Equation Farm Forest
Urban   Land Quality Proportion in Land
Capability Class I and II ? ?
MLRA Dummy
Variables ? ?
Rural Land Rent
Determinants Composite Commodity
Agricultural Product Price ?
Farm
Expenditures ?
Forest
Establishment Costs ? ?
Timber
Price ?
Urban Land Use
Determinants Population Density
?
Household Income ?
Housing Value
?
Farm Value ?
State Dummy
Variables ?
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Urban Growth Scenario
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Forecast for Forest Land

• Strong dependence on relative position of
  agriculture and timber values
• No increase in timber prices loss of 22 million
  acres of timberland
• Moderate increase in timber prices no net loss
  of timberland
• Focus on net change obscures gross changes
• 22 million acres forest? developed
• 20 million acres agriculture?forest
• 2 million net change 44 million gross change

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Timber Production
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Timber Production

• South produces more than any single country
  outside the US
• High diversity of output
• Forecasts of timber production in the US indicate
  that all growth in production will come from the
  region
• South produces about 60 percent of all timber
  product in the United States.

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Timber Production in the South
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Timber market modeling--SFRA

• Interlinked forecast models
• Simulations involving
• Demand
• Productivity

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Scenarios
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Forecasts of total timberland (2020)
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Forecasts of pine plantation area
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Implications for forest structure
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Effects on forests

• Net change in forest area
• Ongoing shift in forest types
• Investment response is strong in softwoods
• Hardwoods?
• Increased concentration of planted pine
• Spatially focused changes

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Forest Types
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Forest Types, 1995-2040
Resulting concerns regarding the biodiversity
impacts of plantations.
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Propensity for shift from ag?forest
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Pine Plantation Area
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Forecast Change in Interior
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Biodiversity implications
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Biodiversity implications

• Rare forest types
• Imperiled species
• Focal areasrapid change

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Rare Forest Communities

• Focus of concerns
• Disproportionately high ecological /
  conservation values (scarcityvalue)
• Spruce-fir impacted by multiple changes

• Wetlands/bog complexes and pocosins
• Bottomland and floodplain forests
• Glades, barrens, and prairies
• Longleaf pine ecosystems.
• Atlantic White Cedar Swamps
• Old-growth
• Spruce-fir forests

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Terrestrial Species of Concern
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Effects of land use and management

• Development and birds
• Increased human presence in forests (WUI)
• Shift toward generalists and away from
  specialists
• Deer
• Agricultural conditions changingloss of
  fencerows / pasture to row crop
• Forecasts indicate concerns for birds in the
  Southern Appalachian Piedmont
• Increasing value of urban and suburban habitats
• Exotic animals in the interface

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Subregions of Concern

• Southern Appalachians
• population growth, fragmentation,
• sensitivity to increased air pollution
• rare forest communities at risk.
• Gulf and Atlantic coastal areas
• wetlands and imperiled species
• more intensively managed forests
• loss of land to urbanization
• The Piedmont Crescent
• highest concentration of forest loss to urban
  uses
• susceptibility to fragmentation.

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Other important issues

• Urbanizing population/culture of the region
• Expansion of the wildland urban interface
• Sale of timberland by WP industries
• Loss of spatial contiguity
• Separation of environmental and commodity values
• New institutional structures encourage more rapid
  transitions

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Concluding Comments

• Change has been a constant and will continue
  (accelerate?)
• Strong timber markets keep some land in forest
  cover
• But doesnt offset development pressures
• Agricultural markets can have a larger impact

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Concluding comments

• Concentration of production in the South
  alleviates pressure on public lands in the West
• But focuses change in the region with the highest
  biodiversity
• Sustainability cannot be assumed

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Thanks for listening

• www.srs.fs.usda.gov/sustain/