Climate Change:

1
Climate Change Tackling Non-CO2 Greenhouse
Gases
Christa Clapp, U.S. EPA U.S. Embassy, Paris July
12, 2007
2
Overview

• Importance of non-CO2 GHGs
• Technical and economic analysis of non-CO2 GHGs
• Inventory
• Projections
• Mitigation
• Scenarios
• Addressing project level barriers through
  voluntary partnerships
• Conclusions

3

Importance of Non-CO2 GHGs
4
Non-CO2 Gases - Important Contributors to GHG
Effect
Non-CO2 GHGs have contributed 30 of total
anthropogenic emissions since pre-industrial times
Contribution of Anthropogenic Emissions of
Greenhouse Gases to the Enhanced Greenhouse
Effect from Pre-industrial to Present (measured
in watts/meter2) (IPCC)
5
Increasing Concentrations of GHGs in the
Atmosphere

• Global atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4 and
  N2O have increased markedly as a result of human
  activities since 1750
• Now far exceed pre-industrial values as
  determined from ice cores spanning many thousands
  of years
• Source IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)

6
Non-CO2 Gases Vary in Potency Atmospheric
Lifetime

7
Current Snapshot of Non-CO2 GHG Emissions
Non-CO2 gases constituted 25 of global GHG
emissions in 2000

8
Non-CO2 Gases Originate From a Variety of Sources
9
Methane A Potent GHG and Valuable Resource

• A primary constituent of natural gas and a
  valuable, relatively clean-burning energy source
• Sources include landfills, natural gas and
  petroleum systems, agricultural activities, coal
  mining, stationary and mobile combustion,
  wastewater treatment, and certain industrial
  processes.

Global Sources of Methane in 2000
10

Technical and Economic Analyses Inventory,
Projections and Mitigation
11
Non-CO2 Gases have Economic and Policy Benefits

• Incorporation of Non-CO2 Gases into climate
  economic analysis has provided important insights
• Non-CO2 gases originate from a range of economic
  sectors, far more diverse than CO2
• Mitigation costs are typically lower than for
  energy-related CO2
• The result a large and diverse portfolio of
  mitigation options and the potential for reduced
  costs for a given climate policy objective

12
USEPA GHG Inventory Program Essential Emissions
Data

• Develop national GHG inventory (all gases,
  sources, sectors)
• Leadership on development of estimation
  methodologies
• Adapt national methods for disaggregated
  inventories (i.e., states, sectors) accounting
  for partnership programs, and GHG projects

Source Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas
Emissions and Sinks 1990-2005 (EPA
430-R-07-002)
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Global Projections of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases

• Provides a consistent and comprehensive estimate
  of global non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions,
  covering
• All non-CO2 greenhouse gases (methane, nitrous
  oxide, high GWP gases)
• Over ninety individual countries and eight
  regions
• all emitting sectors (energy, waste, agriculture,
  and industrial processes)
• Covers historic and projected emissions from 1990
  to 2020
• Provides information that can be used to
  understand national contributions of GHG
  emissions, historical progress on reductions, and
  mitigation opportunities
• Report has undergone an external peer review
• Report and data available on USEPAs website
• http/www.epa.gov/nonco2/econ-inv/international.ht
  ml

Global Anthropogenic Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas
Emissions 19902020 (USEPA, 2006)
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Global Non-CO2 GHG Projections
More developed regions show sustained levels of
non-CO2 emissions, while less developed regions
show projected emissions growth.
15
Global Non-CO2 GHG Projections

• Competing effects in Waste sectors keeps emission
  projections flat
• Growing population trends mean more waste
  emissions
• Countered by increasing landfill controls
  recycling, particularly in developed nations
• Growing emission trends in Energy, Industry
  Agriculture sectors, as population grows and
  energy use per capita increases

16
Global Mitigation of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases

• Recent focus on multi-gas strategies calls for
• improved understanding of mitigation potential
• incorporation of non-CO2 greenhouse gas
  mitigation estimates in climate economic
  analyses, including offsets analyses and
  integrated assessment climate scenarios modeling
• USEPA has developed a comprehensive global
  mitigation analysis for non-CO2 GHGs, covering
• all non-CO2 greenhouse gases (methane, nitrous
  oxide, high GWP gases)
• all emitting sectors (energy, waste, agriculture,
  and industrial processes)
• all regions of the world
• Based on baseline emission projections from EPAs
  sister non-CO2 projections report
• Reports have undergone an external peer review
• Reports and data available on USEPAs website
• http/www.epa.gov/nonco2/econ-inv/international.ht
  ml

Global Mitigation of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases
(USEPA, 2006)
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Mitigation Cost Analysis Methodology

• Bottom-up analysis of mitigation option breakeven
  prices
• Determines at what carbon price a mitigation
  option becomes economically viable
• Breakeven price is where NPV (benefits of the
  option) NPV (costs of implementing the option)
• Breakeven price points form a marginal abatement
  curve (MAC), reflecting the economic potential
  for mitigation at various carbon prices

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Aggregate Results Global MAC

• Mitigation of non-CO2 gases can play an
  important role in climate strategies.
• Worldwide, the potential for cost-effective
  non-CO2 greenhouse gas abatement is significant
  (gt 500 MtCO2eq).
• As the breakeven price rises, the mitigation
  potential grows. The global mitigation potential
  at a price of 10/tCO2eq is approximately 2,000
  MtCO2eq.
• In the higher range of breakeven prices, the MAC
  becomes steeper, and less mitigation potential
  exists for each additional increase in price.
• Negative breakeven price points indicate options
  that are cost effective without a carbon price,
  but may not be deployed in the market due to
  information or other barriers

Global Total Aggregate MAC in 2020
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Aggregate Results MACs by Sector

• Globally, the sectors with the greatest
  potential for mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse
  gases are the energy and agriculture sectors.
• At a breakeven price of 10/tCO2eq, the potential
  for reduction of non-CO2 greenhouse gases is
  greater than 750 MtCO2eq in the energy sector,
  and approximately 500 MtCO2eq in the agriculture
  sector.
• While less than that of the energy and
  agriculture sectors, mitigation potential in the
  waste and industrial process sectors can play an
  important role, particularly in the absence of a
  carbon price incentive.

Global 2020 MACs by Major Sector
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Aggregate Results MACs by GHG

• Methane mitigation has the largest potential
  across all the non-CO2 greenhouse gases.
• At a cost-effective level, the potential for
  methane mitigation is greater than 500 MtCO2eq.
• The potential for reducing methane emissions
  grows three-fold as the breakeven price rises
  from 0 to 20/tCO2eq.
• While less than that of methane, nitrous oxide
  and high-GWP gases exhibit significant
  cost-effective mitigation potential.

Global 2020 MACs by Greenhouse Gas Type
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Aggregate Results MACs by Region

• Major emitting countries of the world offer
  large potential mitigation opportunities.
• China, the United States, the European Union,
  India and Brazil emit the most non-CO2 greenhouse
  gases. As the largest emitters, they also offer
  important mitigation opportunities.
• These countries show significant mitigation
  potential in the lower range of breakeven prices,
  with the MACs getting steeper in the higher range
  of breakeven prices as each additional ton of
  emissions becomes more expensive to reduce.

Global 2020 MACs by Major Emitting Countries
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EMF-21 Cost-effective non-CO2 mitigation

• Stanford Universitys
• Energy Modeling Forum
• Working Group 21 (EMF-21)
• Coordinated international modeling effort
• 18 models run using a consistent approach
• Time horizon out to 2100 for most models
• Incorporated new non-CO2 emissions and mitigation
  data into economy-wide models
• Focused specifically on multiple gas strategies
• Results published in special issue of Energy
  Journal, Multi-Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and
  Climate Policy

Stabilization at 4.5 W/m2 by 2100
Source Weyant and de la Chesnaye (2006)
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EMF-21 Cost-effective non-CO2 mitigation

• Model results show lower carbon prices in
  Multigas Scenarios versus CO2-only Scenarios (for
  17 out of 18 models).
• Majority of results indicate 20-60 lower carbon
  permit prices in the Multigas Scenarios.

Source Weyant and de la Chesnaye (2006)
24
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Mitigation of
Climate Change
Including non-CO2 mitigation options provides
greater flexibility and cost-effectiveness for
achieving stabilization.
Source IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working
Group III, Mitigation of Climate Change
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Continuing Efforts in Non-CO2 Analysis

• Purdue Universitys Global Trade Analysis Project
  
• Working with EPA towards a non-CO2 emissions
  database that is integrated with GTAP economic
  activity, energy volume, and CO2 emissions
  databases
• International Energy Agency
• Incorporating EPA methane mitigation into Energy
  Technology Perspectives modeling
• Results to be published in a chapter devoted to
  methane in 2008 publication of IEAs Energy
  Technology Perspectives
• Continuing work collaboration to improve data
  and refine analyses

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Project Level Voluntary Partnerships Address
Barriers
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Significant Benefits of Methane Mitigation
Projects

• Methane mitigation technology exists
• Landfill gas flaring or capture for direct use or
  electricity generation
• Natural gas systems equipment upgrades/replacement
  s and changes in operational practices,
  inspection maintenance
• Oil systems flaring or capture for direct use or
  enhanced oil recovery
• Coal mine methane flaring or capture through
  degas procedures or ventilation air methane for
  direct use or electricity generation
• Animal waste management using anaerobic digesters
• Multiple benefits of methane mitigation projects
• Increased energy efficiency reduced energy
  waste
• Improved industrial/mine safety and productivity
• Improved air quality, water quality and reduced
  odors
• Reduced greenhouse gas emissions

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Despite Benefits, Barriers Exist

• Despite potential for project level cost savings
  and environmental benefits, barriers to
  mitigating methane emissions continue to exist
• Lack of awareness of emission levels and value of
  lost fuel
• Lack of information on and training in available
  technologies and management practices
• Traditional industry practices
• Regulatory and legal issues
• Limited methane markets and infrastructure
• Uncertain investment climate

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International M2M Voluntary Partnerships Address
Barriers

• International Framework to Advance the Recovery
  and Use of Methane as a Clean Energy Source
• 20 Partner Countries 550 public and private
  Project Network Members
• U.S. commitment of 53 million over five years,
  with total leveraged investment of over 235
  million
• Ongoing projects and activities are expected to
  achieve annual emission reductions of 5 MtCO2e
• New Opportunity Partnership Expo, Beijing (30
  Oct - 1 Nov, 2007)

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International M2M Voluntary Partnerships Address
Barriers

• Goal Advance cost-effective recovery and use of
  methane as a valuable clean energy source in four
  sectors
• Coal mines
• Landfills
• Oil and gas systems
• Agriculture (manure waste management)
• Key activities to advance project development
• Identify and assess project opportunities
• Support technology transfer, training, and
  capacity building
• Address barriers to project development and
  increase access to information
• Technology demonstration and deployment

Coal Mines
Landfills
Oil and Gas Systems
Agriculture
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Conclusions

• Non-CO2 GHGs offer significant opportunities for
  cost-effective mitigation, particularly in the
  near-term
• From a range of diverse sources with varied
  mitigation options
• Can reduce costs of meeting a given climate
  policy objective
• Commercially available mitigation technologies
  and practices
• Multiple project level local benefits
• Barriers exist but are being addressed through
  Methane to Markets voluntary public-private
  international partnership

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Contact Information

• For more information
• EPAs Climate Change Website
• www.epa.gov/climatechange
• EPAs Non-CO2 Projections and Mitigation Reports
• http//www.epa.gov/nonco2/econ-inv/international.h
  tml
• EPAs Methane to Markets Program
• http//www.epa.gov/methanetomarkets/
• Christa Clapp
• Economist, Climate Change Division
• U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
• clapp.christa_at_epa.gov
• 202-343-9807