Entrepreneurial Potential of Russian population: GEM Russia 20062007

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Entrepreneurial Potential of Russian population
GEM Russia (2006-2007)

• Head Prof. Dr. Alexander CHEPURENKO
• Team PhD, Associate Prof. Olga Obraztsova, PhD,
  Associate Prof. Tatiana Alimova, Assistant Prof.
  Maria Gabelko,
• Student staff Alla Alieva, Maria Denisova, Julia
  Filatova, Vladimir Lobachev, Linara Mulukova,
  Ekaterina Murzacheva, Alexandra Shipilova

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About GEM

• Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM)
  international longitudinal comparative project on
  the state of entrepreneurial activity of
  population and its impact on economic growth
• Started in 1999 ?. in 10 countries, in 2007 ?. -
  42 participating countries.
• Annually published general and special reports
  (see at www.gemconsortium.org)
• More than 200 researchers
• Russia since 2006 presented by a joint team from
  St. Petersburg State University (Dept. of
  Management) and HSE (Laboratory of Sociological
  Research)
• Participating universities are obliged to use the
  full datasets for research and education.

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Most important tools of the GEM

• Adult population survey (representative for the
  respective country),
• Experts surveys on Entrepreneurship Framework
  Conditions in respective countries
• Face-to-face in-depth interviews with local
  experts (venture capitalists, financiers, state
  representatives, recognised entrepreneurs,
  analysts etc.)

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Project purpose

• To collect and analyse data on entrepreneurial
  activity of population, its structure and role as
  a factor of economic growth

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The GEM Conceptual Model
General National Framework Conditions
Major Established Firms (Primary Economy)
New Establishments
Social, Cultural, Political Context
Micro, Small and Medium Firms (Secondary Economy)
National Economic Growth (Jobs and Technical Innov
ation)
Entrepreneurial Framework Conditions
Entrepreneurial Opportunities
New Firms

• Entrepreneurial
• Capacity
• Skills
• Motivation

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Stages of entrepreneurial activity

Established business owners over 42 months
(regular business based incomes enabling to
maintain it)
Entrepreneurial potential of a society

Potential entrepreneurs (willing to start-up)
Early stage entrepreneurship (0 42 months)
New business owners (regular business based
income, but the possibility to develop it not yet
evident) 3-42 months
Nascent entrepreneurs
Latent entrepreneurs (no incomes or salaries
from the business after start-up) 0-3 months
Start-ups (first incomes from business) 0-3 months
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Most important indicators

• Total Entrepreneurial Activity index (???)
  share of adult population (18 to 64 aged), taking
  part at a start-up or being owners/managers of
  firma younger than 42 months
• Nascent entrepreneurship rate
• Percentage of 18-64 population who are currently
  a nascent entrepreneur, i.e., actively involved
  in setting up a business they will own or co-own
  this business has not paid salaries, wages, or
  any other payments to the owners for more than 3
  months.
• New business ownership rate
• Percentage of 18-64 population who are currently
  an owner-manager of a new business, i.e., owning
  and managing a running business that has paid
  salaries, wages, or any other payments to the
  owners for more than three months, but not more
  than 42 months.
• Established business ownership rate
• Percentage of 18-64 population who are currently
  an owner-manager of an established business,
  i.e., owning and managing a running business that
  has paid salaries, wages, or any other payments
  to the owners for more than 42 months.
• High-growth expectation early-stage
  entrepreneurial activity
• Percentage of 18-64 population who are either
  nascent entrepreneurs or owner-managers of a new
  business (as defined above) and expect to employ
  at least 20 employees five years from now.
• Business discontinuation rate
• Percentage of 18-64 population who have, in the
  past 12 months, discontinued a business, either
  by selling, shutting down, or otherwise
  discontinuing an owner/management relationship
  with the business.

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Special issues

• High Growth Report (2005) looked at the how much
  high growth potential entrepreneurship there is
  the world and the characteristics of high growth
  potential entrepreneurs. There is a nearly twice
  the level of high growth entrepreneurship in the
  US compared to the UK, Canada or Germany. 10 of
  all entrepreneurial start ups expect to create
  more than 75 of the jobs worldwide.
• Women and Entrepreneurship Systematic
  differences exist in the entrepreneurial activity
  rates of men and women across all countries
  participating in GEM. Despite fewer women then
  men are involved in starting or owning a
  business, the number of women is increasing and
  women who are well-educated, confident about
  their skills, have higher levels of household
  income and jobs are more likely to be
  entrepreneurs than their less affluent
  counterparts.
• Annual Financing Report covers the financing of
  start up firms within the countries participating
  in GEM.

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Sources of data for Russia, 2006 - 2007

• Data sets of 2 APS (vendor Levada-Center, May
  2006, N 1894, May 2007, N 1939)
• Sanple representative for adult population of
  Russia older than 16 years (confidence interval
  5 ), but not fot the entrepreneurial stratum
  itself
• Data of 2 years observation not sufficient to
  speak on tendencies

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Some figures on entrepreneurial potential of
Russia in 2006-2007
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Age and Motivation Structure, 2006-2007 ()
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Indicators of entrepreneurial activity as for
stages and gender ( of adult population)

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Cross-country comparisons Russia in the context
of GEM nations
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TEA and GDP per capita compared, GEM 2006
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Indicators of some GEM nations in 2006
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Indicators of some GEM nations in 2007
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TEA in 2006
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Established entrepreneurship in 2006
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TEA in 2007
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Established entrepreneurship in 2007
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Russia compared

• According to GEM 2006-2007, Russia belongs to the
  biggest cluster of countries with a modal early
  entrepreneurial activity rate
• Entrepreneurial activity in Russia is
  significantly lower that in countries with
  comparable per capita GDP
• Among BRIC countries has Russia the lowest TEA
  (2,5 3 times lower than in other BRIC
  countries).

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Decline of most indicators dynamics in Russia,
2006-2007

• ??? decreased 2,7 in 2007 compared with 4,86
  in 2006
• Nascent EA decrease of 61,6 ,
• New business owners EA decrease of 21,7
• EEI (Early entrepreneurship increase coefficient
  Nascent Discontinued)
• in 2006 3,5,
• in 2007 1,35.

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Some positive signs in Russia, 2006-2007

• Motivation of early entrepreneurship
• In 2006 Opportunity Necessity 53,
• In 2007 ca. 71
• Gender structure of early entrepreneurship
• Stable high share of women EE (ca. 40 )

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Reasons for Russia to participate at the GEM

• Possibilities for cross-national comparisons,
• Amending of lack of official statistics on
  entrepreneurial potential of Russian population
• Tools for Quality Assessment on the field of SME
  support policy (some GEM indexes can be used as
  indicators of targeted, real and achieved
  efficiency)
• GEM instruments are relatively simple, cheap and
  effective if used on a regular basis.

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Thank you for your attention!

• Mote details on GEM
• www.gemconsortium.org
• http//vorona.hse.ru/sites/sip/second/gem_news.asp
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