Blue Template for Slide Presentations

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USGS in the 21st Century Climate science and
new directions
CIRMOUNT MTNCLIM 2008Silverton, COJune 9,
2008Mark Myers, DirectorU.S. Geological Survey
U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological
Survey
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Humans become agents of environmental change
Ecological equilibrium disturbed
Human-induced changes on a global scale
Approaching thresholds of ecosystems Threats to
earth resources
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Night light produced largely from fossil fuels
An index of human power in the environment
NASA
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The Human Effect

• Humans have already transformed 40-50 of the
  ice-free land surface on earth.
• Humans now use 54 of the available fresh water
  on the globe.
• Humans now move far more sediment - mainly
  through agriculture and construction activities -
  than the sum of all the natural processes
  operating on the surface of the planet.
• Humans are now an order of magnitude more
  important at moving sediment than the sum of all
  other natural processes operating on the surface
  of the planet.

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Water Quality and Availability
Water a limited resource, global
issue Diminished by climate change population
growth agricultural use
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USGS Science Strategy Directions
Understanding Ecosystems and Predicting Ecosystem
Change
Energy and Minerals for Americas Future
A National Hazards, Risk, and Resilience
Assessment Program
The Role of Environment and Wildlife in Human
Health
A Water Census of the United States
Climate Variability and Change
Data Integration and Beyond
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Ecosystem Structure
Rock and Soil
Fungi
Climate
Animals and Vegetation
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Ecosystem Mapping and Analysis
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Understanding Earth Systems
All earth resources interrelated. Climate
change, population growth acceleratedifficulties,
complexity USGS science strategy based on
systems approach
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USGS Strengths in Science, Monitoring,
Information

• History of climate change science research and
  long-term monitoring
• Multi-disciplinary capabilities and scientific
  expertise across the landscape
• Capability to assess prehistoric, historic and
  current climate effects
• Ability to integrate broad arrays and types of
  information for effective decision-making

John Wesley Powell, Director, 1881-94
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Key Research Issues with a Warmer West

• Hydroclimatology
• Seasonal streamflow
• Recharge variability change
• Ecosystem and species responses
• Fire and insect outbreaks
• Phenology

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During the past 50 years, long-term winter-spring
warming trends have changed the West.
Cayan et al., 2001
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Warming already has driven significant
hydroclimatic changes.
Less snow/more rain
Less spring snowpack
TRENDS (1950-97) in April 1 snow-water content
at western snow courses
Knowles et al.,2006
-2.2 std devs LESS as snowfall
1 std dev MORE as snowfall
Mote, 2003
Earlier snowmelt runoff
Spring-pulse dates
Stewart et al., 2005
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With mountain recharge at risk, Groundwater
inputs to upland streams at risk Recharge to
basin aquifers across mountain fronts may also
change.
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Model-Projected Changes in Annual Runoff,
2041-2060
Percentage change relative to 1900-1970 baseline.
Any color indicates that gt66 of models agree on
sign of change diagonal hatching indicates gt90
agreement.
(After Milly, P.C.D., K.A. Dunne, A.V. Vecchia,
Global pattern of trends in streamflow andwater
availability in a changing climate, Nature, 438,
347-350, 2005.)
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Projections for Center of Mass Timing B1
scenario (2.5C)
15 to 35 days earlierby late 21st century
Courtesy of Mike Dettinger
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Whitebark Pine Susceptibility to Mountain Pine
Beetle Epidemics
High-elevations in western US predicted to be
continuously warmer in future decades
Area of climate suitability projected to increase
at highest elevations And decrease at lower
elevations
Hicke et al., JGR-Biogeosciences, 2006
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Long-term USGS research in the Sierra Nevada
indicates that in forests that otherwise appear
to be healthy Tree mortality rates have
doubled This doubling parallels
temperature-driven increases in drought
van Mantgem Stephenson 2007
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Fires gt 400 ha vs. temp
Changes in Wildfire and the Timing of Spring in
Western US Forests, A.L. Westerling, H.G.
Hidalgo, D.R. Cayan, T.W. Swetnam. Science (2006)
R 0.70
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Spring index based on first leaf date for lilacs
Syringa vulgaris (common lilac) Syringa
chinensis (cloned lilac)
1984
Schwartz and Reiter 2000 International. J.
Climatology
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Observed Changes in Wildlife at Gothic, CO
Marmots emerging 38 days earlier than in 1977
Robins arriving 14 days earlier
Inouye et al., PNAS 2000
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Stationarity is Dead
Stationarity - the concept and practice that
natural systems fluctuate within an unchanging
envelope of variability
Rocky Mtn. Biological Laboratory
Photo courtesy of David Inouye
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A National Climate Effects Network - a proposal
for a Systematic Application of Research Results

• A truly integrated National climate effect
  monitoring network capable of detecting and
  analyzing change at a range of temporal and
  spatial scales by building on existing
  capabilities
• A scientific team focused on early detection and
  scientific analysis in support of adaptation or
  mitigation strategies
• An information dissemination and decision
  support system for cost effective, scientifically
  rigorous management and policy decisions
• The capacity for the next generation to protect
  and sustain our National trust resources through
  early detection of change

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Living for the Future
Systems approach helps reveal nature of earth
systems Climate change is particularly evident
in mountain environments We are all at
risk Many near-term decisions will influence
the future health of the planet