Climate Change Goals for the

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Climate Change Goals for the Metropolitan
Washington Area
Climate Change Steering Committee February 27,
2008 Joan Rohlfs, MWCOG/DEP
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Regional Goals Ways to Get There

• Propose Short-Term Goal (2012)
• Low Hanging Fruit
• Interim Goal for 2020 20 Below 2005
• Actions to Reach Goal
• Adoption of Long Term Goals (2050)
• Policies to Reach Goal

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Regional Short Term Goal 2012
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Long Term and Short Term Goals

• Long Term Goals Needed to Stabilize Climate
• Spur investment in new technology
• Incentive for technological innovation
• Short Term Goals to Insure Immediate Progress
• Analyze strategies using existing technology
• Nearer term year is easier to comprehend,
  anticipate

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Local Government Short Term Goals

• Cool Counties agreement Stop emissions growth
  in 2010
• Mayors Agreement Reduce 7 below 1990 by 2012

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Proposed Short Term Goal 2012

• Proposed goal Reduce 7 by 2012
• 2005-2012 Emissions expected to increase by 7
• Achievement of 7 reduction goal by 2012 would
  return regional emissions to 2005 levels

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Low Hanging Fruit
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Individual Actions

• Individuals contribute an estimated 7 tons CO2e
  per year
• Residential energy use (37)
• Appliance use, AC and heating
• Transportation (63)
• Personal car use, mass transit, air travel

Source M. Vandenbergh, Carbon Neutral
Individual, 2007
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Individual Contribution to GHG Emissions
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Individual GHG Emissions

• Individuals contribute about 1/3 of CO2 emissions
  in the U.S.
• Individuals can play an important role in
  achieving short and long term targets
• Some behaviors can be modified to generate large
  emission reductions (low hanging fruit)

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Transportation
Reduction

• Buy more efficient car
• Carpool w/ 2 others
• Cut shopping trips in ½
• Alter driving habits
• Get frequent tune-ups
• Maintain tire pressure
• Subtotal

• 20
• 4
• 2
• 2
• 2
• 1
• 31

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Household Energy Reduction
Reduction

• Weatherize house
• Install efficient HVAC
• Reduce inside temp to 68o
• Install efficient water heater, reduce by 20o
• Install efficient appliances
• Change bulbs to CFL

• 10
• 8
• 4
• 3
• 2.5
• 1.0

SUBTOTAL 28.5
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Impact of 60 Reduction in Consumer Emissions
by 2012
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60 Reductions from Consumers

• Assumes 2012 BAU emissions
• 33 percent are consumers
• Consumers can reduce by 60
• BAU is 82.3 million MT
• Reductions would be 16.3 million MT
• Equivalent to about 20 percent from overall BAU.

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Midterm Goal 2020How to get there
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Example Transportation Scenario for 2020

• Transportation Emissions
• 2005 to 2020 Increase 24.6
• Reduction Goal Reduce 20 below 2005
• Reduction Measures
• CAFÉ Standards Reduce 20.0
• 55 mpg by 2020 Reduce 5.1
• VMT limit (?)

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Measures to Reduce Regional GHG
Assumption

Measure
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How to Get 20 Reduction by 2020
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Long Term Goal 2050
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IPCC Stabilization Scenario- 2050

• IPCC recommends reduction in global CO2 emissions
  in 2050 of 50-85 (of 2000 emissions
• Stabilization defined as CO2-eq concentration at
  445-490 ppm,
• Global mean temperature increase kept at 2.0-2.4o
  C

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Proposed Long Term Regional GHG Reduction Goal
70 below 2005 by 2050

• Based on science in IPCC Report and consistent
  with the Warner Lieberman bills reduction goals

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Regional Greenhouse Emissions (2005)
Source MWCOG estimates.
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Estimated Washington Region CO2 Emissions,
2005-2030 (Business As Usual)
MWCOG Dept. of Environmental Programs, Sept. 2007
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List of Actual and Potential Government Programs
to Reduce GHG Emissions

• Federal Measures
• Energy Bill of 2007 (CAFÉ standards, EEE)
• Energy Efficient appliance standards
• Establish price and trading for carbon emissions
• Limit CO2 emissions from power plants, motor
  vehicles
• Invest in Renewable energy technology (solar,
  wind, hydro)
• Support nuclear energy research
• State Measures
• CAL LEV limits on mobile CO2 emissions
• RGGI
• Renewable Porfolio Standards (RE as of Energy
  Efficiency goals)
• Require GHG emissions analysis as part of
  Environmental Impact analyses
• Local
• Purchase of alternative/renewable energy
• Increase tree canopy
• LED traffic lights

Federal
State
Local
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Recommendations

• Adopt Regional Climate Change Goals
• 2012 Reduce GHG emissions by 7
• 2020 Reduce GHG emissions by 20 below 2005
• 2050 Reduce GHG emission by 70 below 2005