The Menu for Choice

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The Menu for Choice

• How do States Make Decisions?

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I. The state as unitary actor?

• Unitary Actors?
• Realism and the National Interest
• What is the national interest?
• Why does regime type matter?

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B. As If Assumption

• Support Power politics models, situations of
  constrained choice
• Problem Internal differences matter in
  unexpected ways as if assumption generates
  incorrect predictions

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C. The Puzzle How does a State Select From the
Menu?
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II. Arrows Theorem and the National Interest

• Focus How to aggregate individual interests into
  social or national interest
• Setting and question
• Three or more citizens
• Three or more outcomes or objectives they must
  rank Example economic growth, human rights, and
  military security.
• Is there a reasonable way for society as a whole
  to rank the outcomes? Could be anything
  voting, polling, mind-reading, etc. Is there any
  system at all that would be reasonable?

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C. Notation

• Choices or outcomes are indicated by capital
  letters A, B, C, etc.
• Preferences indicated by use of letters p, i, or
  r
• Strong preference If someone prefers one option
  to another we write A p B
• Indifference If someone thinks A and B are about
  equal, we write A i B
• Weak preference If A p B or A i B then A r B.
  So A r B means A is at least as good as B

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2. A minimal definition of rationality

• Preferences are connected Given any pair of
  options, someone can relate them with p, i, or r.
• Preferences are transitive If A r B and B r C
  then A r C.

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D. Characteristics of a desirable aggregation
technique

• Universality Our technique should apply to any
  group of rational people, regardless of their
  specific preferences about A, B, or C.

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2. Non-Dictatorship

• If Bob says A p B
• But everyone else says B p A
• then
• We should not conclude that for society, A p B

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3. Unanimity

• If everyone agrees that A p B
• then
• We should conclude that for society, A p B

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4. Collective Rationality

• If individuals are rational, our technique should
  create social preferences that are rational
• Remember what this means connected and
  transitive preferences

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5. Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives

• Suppose I have the options A, B, and C. I can
  rank these however I want. One example A p B p
  C
• Now suppose a new option is available D.
• I must not change the order of A, B, and C
  relative to each other.
• Starting with above example
• D p A p B p C ? OK
• A p D p B p C ? OK
• A p B p D p C ? OK
• A p B p C p D ? OK
• D p B p A p C ? Not OK (B and A swapped places)
• Restaurant analogy Waiter offers chicken or
  fish. I like chicken better. Waiter comes back
  and explains there is also beef. I now decide I
  want the fish. (Not OK)

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D. Characteristics of a desirable aggregation
technique (revisited)

• Universality Applies to people with different
  values or beliefs
• Non-Dictatorship No one persons preference
  outweighs everyone else together
• Unanimity If everyone prefers one option to
  another, then so should society as a whole
• Collective Rationality Should produce a
  transitive ranking of options
• Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives New
  options dont change the relative ranks of
  earlier options

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E. Conclusion and Implications

• Arrow proved these conditions cannot all be true!
• Implications
• There are times when there is no single national
  interest, general will or will of the people
• Rational individuals may not make a rational
  collectivity
• Preference cycles and the power of agenda-setting
• Voter 1 A p B p C
• Voter 2 B p C p A
• Voter 3 C p A p B
• SOCIETY
• A p B
• B p C
• C p A!

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III. Beyond National Interest Opportunity and
Willingness Revisited

• Reminder First lecture of class outlined the
  menu for choice approach
• What affects states opportunities?
• System Position in hierarchies
• Region Neighborhood effects of regime, trade,
  and conflict
• Dyad Trade dependence, relative power
• State Power projection capability, stage of
  development
• What about willingness? Need to move BELOW state
  level of analysis!

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IV. Selectorate Theory A Framework for
Understanding Willingness

• Division of society
• Leader Decides public policy
• Selectorate set of people with legal right to
  participate in selection of the government
• Democracies Adult citizens
• Monarchies Royalty or nobles
• Some autocracies have large selectorates
  (single-party states, rigged elections, etc.)
  Why?
• Winning Coalition Number of selectorate actually
  needed to gain/retain power
• Democracies About half of S
• Autocracies Military leaders, key nobles, etc.
• Disenfranchised Powerless

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Selectorate Theorys Division

• Societys Disenfranchised
• Selectorate
• Winning Coalition
• Leader

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B. Regime Types Three combinations

• W Size of winning coalition
• S Size of selectorate
• W/S Regime Type

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C. Policy Tools

• Allocation of resources
• Public Goods National security, prosperity, etc.
• Benefit the entire selectorate (S) both
  supporters and opponents/defectors
• Collective in nature joint and nonexcludable
  (economic growth, safety, clean air, etc.)
• Private Goods Benefit supporters only (W)
• Leaders prefer to use private goods to remain in
  power (punish defection)

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D. The loyalty norm effects of S and W

• W/S is Large Chance of selector being needed in
  next coalition is high ? defect if private goods
  at less than maximum

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Large W/S Democracy and Monarchy/ Junta (Chance
of being needed is high)
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D. The loyalty norm effects of S and W

• W/S is Large Chance of selector being needed in
  next coalition is high ? defect if private goods
  at less than maximum
• W/S is Small Chance of selector being needed in
  next coalition is low ? defection offers little
  prospect of increased private goods

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Small W/S Autocracy (Chance of being needed is
low)
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D. The loyalty norm effects of S and W

• W/S is Large Chance of selector being needed in
  next coalition is high ? defect if private goods
  at less than maximum
• W/S is Small Chance of selector being needed in
  next coalition is low ? defection offers little
  prospect of increased private goods
• Small W Easy to reward/punish defectors
• Large W Hard to reward/punish defectors

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5. Institutions and Incentives

• Leader wants Small W (easy to bribe if desired)
  and large S (very small W/S means defection is
  unattractive). Result Corruption possible but
  not required
• Winning coalition wants Small W (more private
  goods) and small S (large W/S means leader must
  devote most resources to bribes). Result
  Corruption required.
• Selectorate wants Large W (focus on public
  goods) ? implies Large S. Result Corruption
  difficult.

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E. Evidence for Selectorate Theory

• Development Explains many previous failures
  (modernization, dependency)
• Agrarian elite coalitions reduced productivity
  (large estates, agricultural protectionism) but
• Urban elite coalitions also reduced productivity
  (food subsidies, the Iron Triangle)
• State control ? patronage and kickbacks (mere
  cosmetic differences between socialist or
  capitalist autocracies)
• Autocracy forces corruption on the leader!
  Leaders who emphasize public goods are rejected ?
  explains post-colonial development

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3. Foreign Policy

• Democracies less likely to fight leaders
  punished for public policy mistakes
• Democracies more free-trade general benefits of
  free trade gt damage to specific groups

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Evidence for Selectorate Theory Democracy and
Public Goods

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4. Other findings of selectorate theory

• Economic/Political freedom associated with
  greater prosperity (weakly) and life expectancy
  (moderately)
• Leaders in autocracies (Large S/Small W) last
  longer than those in democracies
• Historical move away from monarchies, infrequency
  of juntas

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5. Limits of selectorate theory

• Few useful policy recommendations Pursue
  public goods so people re-elect you is vague
• Growth is only one public good government may
  opt for social insurance, education, social
  welfare programs, etc in lieu of economic growth
• National security vs. growth? Model has
  difficulty predicting both at once

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V. Interest Groups in International Politics

• The people matter (selectorate theory says
  leaders emphasize public goods in democracies)
• But politics is messy (national interest may
  not exist, which means public goods only go so
  far)
• So how do interest groups affect leaders choices?

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A. Interest Group Models

• Pluralism Competing groups represented
  according to numbers and issue salience
• Collective Action Group goal as public good
• Free-Rider Dilemma Must use selective incentives
  to overcome
• Implication Organization necessary for success
• Winning Coalition Many theories argue that
  leaders are most concerned preserving their
  coalition (listen to allies before enemies).
  Example Bush and Republican support.

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B. A Framework for Comparison Who has influence?
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1. Individuals
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1. Individuals
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1. Individuals -- Powerless alone
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2. Unorganized Groups
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2. Unorganized Groups -- Must be considered, but
cannot set agenda
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3. Organized groups
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3. Organized groups -- Set agenda and affect
public opinion
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4. Benefits of Organization
a. Credible Commitment -- Conditional support b.
Outreach -- Publicity, Money, Media Access c.
Persuasion -- Information to representatives
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C. How do interest groups affect international
relations?

• Collective action model is strongest Discrete,
  organized, funded groups have the most influence
• Which groups qualify in the US?

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a. Funding Which groups give the most money?

• i. Foreign and Defense Policy Groups
  Surprisingly little (lt .1 of total funds raised)

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ii. Industries

• Defense More but still behind most industries
• Agriculture and Energy Much more
• Labor Even more
• Conclusion Banks gt Manufacturing gt Labor gt
  Energy and Farm Interests gt Defense gt Foreign
  Policy Groups

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b. Other forms of influence?

• Ethnic interest groups Additional influence in
  proportion to demographic size (Latinos, Jews,
  Armenians, etc.)
• INGOs Publicity, but usually limited direct
  political participation (legal restrictions)

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c. Dont forget Salience!

• Explains why foreign policy groups have influence
  beyond funding and numbers small, intensely
  interested groups get more than large but
  distracted groups.
• Most influential Well-funded groups with foreign
  policy focus (salience) and domestic ethnic base
  (e.g. AIPAC)

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VI. Public opinion

• Follow the Leader
• Rally Round the Flag

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VI. Public opinion

• Follow the Leader
• Rally Round the Flag
• Trust in President
• Long-term consistency on major issues
• Military Operations
• Visible costs Casualties, Money
• Perceived National Interest

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Battle-Deaths and Support for Wars
Iraq (sketch)
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D. Ideologies in Foreign Policy

• Liberal vs. Conservative Limited Use US
  foreign policy shows remarkable continuity, many
  important issues dont fall on liberal-conservativ
  e spectrum.

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2. Isolationism vs. Internationalism Incomplete

• Isolationism Avoid foreign commitments, stay at
  home
• Internationalism Active role in world affairs
• Problem What kind of internationalism?

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D. Public vs. Power Elites Forms of
Internationalism
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D. Public vs. Power Elites Forms of
Internationalism
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D. Public vs. Power Elites Forms of
Internationalism
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D. Public vs. Power Elites Forms of
Internationalism
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D. Public vs. Power Elites Forms of
Internationalism
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